“兩業”融合發展對區域經濟韌性的影響研究

[摘 要：文章基于先進制造業與現代服務業融合視角，采用空間杜賓模型實證探討了2005—2020年中國30個省份“兩業”融合發展對區域經濟韌性的影響及內在機制。結果顯示，“兩業”融合發展對本地經濟韌性具有正向影響，對鄰地經濟韌性也產生了正向空間溢出效應。并且，本地效應和空間溢出效應均存在時空異質性，時間維度上，在金融危機發生前“兩業”融合發展僅對本地經濟韌性產生了正向影響，在恢復期對本地和鄰地均產生正向影響；空間維度上，“兩業”融合發展顯著提升了東部、中部地區本地和鄰地經濟韌性，在西部地區對本地經濟韌性具有正向影響、對鄰地經濟韌性具有負向影響，而對東北地區的本地經濟韌性為負向影響。進一步研究發現，“兩業”融合發展通過人口流動和區域創新顯著促進了本地及鄰地經濟韌性的提升。

關鍵詞：“兩業”融合發展；區域經濟韌性；先進制造業；現代服務業

中圖分類號：F424；F719" " 文獻標識碼：A 文章編號：1007-5097（2023）04-0088-13 ]

Research on the Influence of the Development of

“Two Industries” Integration on Regional Economic Resilience：

Based on the Perspective of Integration of Advanced Manufacturing and Modern Service

ZHANG Mingdou，DAI Yangyang

（School of Economics，Dongbei University of Finance and Economics，Dalian 116025，China）

Abstract：Based on the perspective of the integration of advanced manufacturing and modern service，this paper uses the spatial Durbin model to discuss the influence and intrinsic mechanism of the development of “two industries” integration on regional economic resilience in 30 provinces in China from 2005 to 2020. The results show that the development of “two industries” integration has a positive impact on the resilience of local economy，and also has a positive spatial spillover effect on the economic resilience of neighboring regions. Both the local effect and the spatial spillover effect have spatiotemporal heterogeneity. In the time dimension，before the financial crisis the development of “two industries” integration had a positive impact on the resilience of local economy. During the recovery period，it had a positive impact on both local and neighboring regions；in the spatial dimension，the development of “two industries” integration has significantly improved the economic resilience of local and neighboring regions in the eastern and central regions. In the western regions，it has a positive impact on the local economic resilience and has a negative impact on the neighboring economic resilience，while has a negative impact on the economic resilience of local economy in the northeast regions. Further research finds that the development of “two industries” integration has significantly improved the economic resilience of local and neighboring regions through population mobility and regional innovation.

Key words：development of “two industries” integration；regional economic resilience；advanced manufacturing industry； modern service

一、引 言

改革開放以來，我國經歷了亞洲金融風暴、全球金融危機、新冠肺炎疫情等一系列重大沖擊，但每次都能及時采取有效措施，應對自如，并從各種不確定性中恢復過來，經濟逆勢而上，正如2022年中央經濟工作會議所指出的，我國經濟韌性強、潛力大、活力足。2008年金融危機爆發以來，國內外環境日趨復雜，經濟下行壓力增大，重大外部風險頻生，進一步倒逼經濟韌性提升，也使之愈發成為經濟高質量發展的重要內涵。……