“四化”建設(shè)與地區(qū)碳強(qiáng)度減排

[摘 要：文章基于構(gòu)建“四化”衡量指標(biāo)體系，綜合運(yùn)用計(jì)量方法分析減排視角下“四化”建設(shè)與碳強(qiáng)度的解耦狀態(tài)、作用機(jī)制及影響關(guān)系。研究表明：考察期內(nèi)省際“四化”建設(shè)水平穩(wěn)步提升，“四化”建設(shè)與碳強(qiáng)度的解耦狀態(tài)突出表現(xiàn)為擴(kuò)張性負(fù)解耦，且解耦演進(jìn)過程中省份間存在時(shí)間及空間差異性；地區(qū)間“四化”與碳強(qiáng)度的關(guān)聯(lián)程度呈現(xiàn)東部gt;中部gt;西部的現(xiàn)象；短期內(nèi)“四化”與碳強(qiáng)度的動態(tài)響應(yīng)較為明顯，遠(yuǎn)期而言“四化”對碳強(qiáng)度的沖擊效果逐漸減弱；新型工業(yè)化、新型城鎮(zhèn)化、信息化和新型農(nóng)業(yè)現(xiàn)代化對碳強(qiáng)度的動態(tài)影響分別呈現(xiàn)“N”型、“倒N”型、“U”型和“倒U”型的作用趨勢。

關(guān)鍵詞：“四化”；碳強(qiáng)度；解耦狀態(tài)；減排機(jī)制

中圖分類號：F124.5；X321" " 文獻(xiàn)標(biāo)識碼：A 文章編號：1007-5097（2023）04-0077-11 ]

“Four Modernizations” Construction and Regional Carbon Intensity Reduction：

Empirical Evidence Based on Horizontal Comparison

ZHANG Hengshuo，LI Shaoping，LIU Yang，ZHANG Jianhua

（School of Economics and Management，Northeastern Petroleum University，Daqing 163318，China）

Abstract：Based on the construction of the “four modernizations” measurement index system，this paper comprehensively uses the measurement method to analyze decoupling status，mechanism，and impact relationship between the “four modernizations” construction and carbon intensity from the perspective of emission reduction. The research shows that the level of inter-provincial “four modernizations” construction has been steadily improved during the review period，and the decoupling state of “four modernizations” construction and carbon intensity is prominently manifested as expansionary negative decoupling，and there are temporal and spatial differences between provinces in the process of decoupling evolution；the correlation between “four modernizations” and carbon intensity among regions shows the phenomenon of “eastgt;centregt;west”；in the short term，the dynamic response between “four modernizations” and carbon intensity is relatively obvious，while in the long term，the impact effect of “four modernizations” on carbon intensity is gradually weakened；the dynamic impact of new industrialization，new urbanization，informatization，and new agricultural modernization on carbon intensity shows the trend of “N”，“inverted N”，“U”，and “inverted U” respectively.

Key words：“four modernizations”；carbon intensity；decoupling state；emission reduction mechanism

一、引 言

繼黨的十九大報(bào)告指出要“推動新型工業(yè)化、信息化、城鎮(zhèn)化、農(nóng)業(yè)現(xiàn)代化同步發(fā)展”，黨的二十大報(bào)告再次強(qiáng)調(diào)要“建成現(xiàn)代化經(jīng)濟(jì)體系，形成新發(fā)展格局，基本實(shí)現(xiàn)新型工業(yè)化、信息化、城鎮(zhèn)化、農(nóng)業(yè)現(xiàn)代化”。可見，新型工業(yè)化、信息化、城鎮(zhèn)化、農(nóng)業(yè)現(xiàn)代化（以下簡稱“四化”）在我國經(jīng)濟(jì)社會發(fā)展中的重要地位。伴隨經(jīng)濟(jì)建設(shè)強(qiáng)度的不斷加深，經(jīng)濟(jì)社會發(fā)展與環(huán)境承載力之間的矛盾日益加大［1］，加之國內(nèi)多層次、深領(lǐng)域的“雙碳”目標(biāo)的戰(zhàn)略實(shí)施，加快推進(jìn)地區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展過程中的碳減排管控已迫在眉睫。2019年中國單位國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值的二氧化碳排放量（以下簡稱碳強(qiáng)度）較2005年下降了48.1%，這與2030年碳強(qiáng)度較2005年下降60%～65%的預(yù)期愿景相比，仍存在較大的減排空間?！?br>