A Study on the Major-Country Interaction in the China-US-Russia Triangular Relationship amid Great Changes

In the context of the once-in-a-century great changes,the geopolitical significance of the China-US-Russia triangular relationship is once again highlighted,which has become a key factor affecting the international strategic landscape and the evolution of the international order for the time being and some time to come in the future.Meanwhile,as China’s national strength is continuously rising,a new balance of power is emerging in the dynamic changes among China,the US and Russia,in which their respective strategic role is changing and their triangular interaction has become more complex featuring competition,cooperation,conflict and game.From the prospect of the triangular interaction among China,the US and Russia under the great changes,conflicts between China and the US are on the rise,US-Russia relations feature a combination of competition and cooperation,and strategic coordination between China and Russia has been elevated in an all-round way and they are tending to work closely to jointly face up to American global hegemonism.

I.The New Triangular Relationship among China,the US and Russia Will Remain for a Long Time to Come

Although America’s global hegemonic status and influence are relatively decreasing,it does not mean the US is declining.On the contrary,it is still growing.The COVID-19 pandemic has indeed rendered great shocks to US economy,but not deprived the US of its status as the leading economy of the world.For some time in the future,the US will remain the leading global power in military,economy and soft power,and the American century is far from over.

Over the past 40 odd years since reform and opening-up began,although China has made a great headway and some breakthroughs in certain areas,it still lags behind the US in terms of level of overall development and comprehensive national strength.Beyond all doubt,China’s overall national strength will keep growing for some time to come,but it will only further narrow the gap with the United States.

In the triangular relationship,Russia is the feeble“third party”that will remain unchanged in a short run.In the coming three to five years,the prospects for Russia’s economic revival are rather dim due to such factors as the raging pandemic,mono economic structure and heavy dependence on external energy market.Nevertheless,Russia’s military power,resource endowment and diversity of diplomatic tools will make up for,to some extent,its lack of economic strength,thus ensuring it will remain an independent pole in the triangular relationship.

II.Strategic Competition Is Intensifying,but the Balance Will not Be Upset Easily

On the one hand,the US is not to give up its containment strategy against China and Russia.Since the Trump administration,the US has consolidated its judgment of China as a“long-term strategic rival,technological competitor and socialist empire”,which has determined that the strategic game between China and the US is enduring.Since the inception of the Biden administration,the US has further reinforced its judgment that China is the primary strategic rival to the United States.After rolling out Interim National Security Strategic Guidance,the US Congress has passed the Strategic Competition Act of 2021,which testifies a high bi-partisan consensus has been reached on boosting strategic competition against China,and makes such a competition a legal reality.At the same time,due to the missing of strategic mutual trust between the US and Russia,relatively weak economic bonds between them and the European factor,it is hard to really break the ice in US-Russia relations,and still less that the two sides will resolve their disputes over the deployment of anti-ballistic missile systems by the US,eastward expansion of NATO and issues relating to CIS.As a result,the incumbent US Secretary of State Blinken has expressed explicitly that he sees no possibility to restart US-Russia relations,nor will he pin any hope

On the other hand,space for cooperation does exist among China,the US and Russia in the fields of counter-terrorism,nuclear non-proliferation,global governance,regional hotspot issues and among others.Unlike the relations between the Soviet Union and the United States,the China-US relationship is not a zero-sum game,but one in which a pattern of deepening and integrating interests has taken shape and it is not easy for the US to be decoupled.The USRussia security cooperation is going in depth,and the two sides have mature crisis management experiences and mechanisms.More importantly,both China and Russia have no intention to take the US as an enemy,and they wish to maintain an overall stable relationship with the United States.China and Russia have seen their strategic cooperation as defense-driven.Although they provide each other with stable strategic backing,it does not constitute an anti-America alliance.

III.Russia Will Play a Role as an Inclined Balancer in the Triangular Relationship

Against the backdrop of intensifying China-US strategic game,Russia has become more flexible in the triangular relationship.Russia has always been in need to improve its frosty relations with the US,while the US wants to build a“stable and predictable”relationship with Russia.However,in view of the structural contradictions between the US and Russia,and the intimate and consolidated relations between China and Russia in the new era,it is unlikely that Russia will fully embrace the US,but instead they will remain in a“manageable confrontation”.Russia is probable to seek greater freedom of action on the basis of consolidating China-Russia strategic coordination,to play a role as an inclined strategic balancer between China and the United States.

First,there is a structural conflict between the long-term strategic goals of Russia and the United States.Russia considers itself to be a global power and is reluctant to accept the reality that its international status is declining,with an intent to become an independent pole in a world of multi-polarity,while the US only allows Russia at most to be a junior partner to the US as an ordinary European state and has always prioritized keeping Russia from reviving the“Russian Empire”in its policy toward Russia.Moreover,besides cooperation mechanisms in arms control,there are no practical mechanisms or basis for cooperation between Russia and the US in the fields of economy,trade and global governance,hence resulting in a lack of internal impetus for the development of their bilateral relations.

Second,the historical lesson of“one-sidedness”to the West is a reminder that Russia should avoid repeating its past mistakes.The outright pro-Western policy in the Yeltsin era cost Russia dearly,resulting in social and economic disorder,shrinking“sphere of influence”and huge setbacks in national development,which put Russia on the verge of becoming a second-rate country.This has sowed the seeds of mistrust of the West in the minds of Russians.On July 3,2021,Russia introduced its new National Security Strategy,which has defined the US as the source of external threat.

Third,Russia has always pursued an independent diplomatic philosophy,adhered to strategic independence and defended its geopolitical and economic interests with great resolve.From President Putin’s past experience with the US,Russia believes it is in a peer game rather than a non-peer game with the United States.In that case,Russia needs and cherishes strategic backing from China to sustain competition with the US,engaging in“back to back”strategic coordination with China in the face of US strategic pressure and squeezing.Therefore,it is not likely that Russia will trade off China easily with the US,and America’s dream to drive a wedge between China and Russia is hard to come true.

Last,the endogenous foundation of China-Russia relations is increasingly consolidated.The strategic pursuits of China and Russia are compatible,the potential for economic cooperation is huge,and the foundation for friendly cooperation is solid,which have laid a firm endogenous foundation for the two countries to maintain a high level of strategic coordination.On June 28,2021,President Xi Jinping and President Putin jointly announced the extension of China-Russia Treaty of Good-Neighborliness and Friendly Cooperation,thus providing a strong legal guarantee for the continuation of China-Russia friendship from generation to generation.With the“back to back”comprehensive strategic coordination taking shape between China and Russia,their mutual strategic backing has become the key to maintaining a strategic balance in the China-US-Russia triangular relationship.

(Han Lu is Associate Research Fellow and Deputy Director at the Department for European-Central Asian Studies,CISS; and Liu Feitao is Senior Research Fellow and Director at the Department for World Economy and Development,CISS.This article was received on May 21,2021.)