On the Implication of the “Middle Ground” To the Strategic Competition between China and the United States

The “middle ground” refers to the regions, countries or international organizations swinging between major countries.The Biden administration is trying to isolate China by forming international cliques through international order and rules, military alliance, and value-oriented diplomacy among others to shape a situation favorable to its strategic competition with China.Faced with an aggressive strategic competition initiated by the US, China should attach great importance to doing a better work on winning over the “middle ground”.

I.The “Middle Ground” Regions Contended for by the US

First, tighten ties with countries that follow US’ lead.Represented by Japan, ROK, NATO members and Australia, these countries are highly dependant on the US in terms of security.As a result, they have immediately made positive responses to the major-country competition strategy pursued by the United States.Early in 2016, the Park Geun-hye administration agreed to the deployment of the THAAD anti-missile systems in South Korea by the US, which brought about a complete reverse in China-ROK relations.After coming to office, the Biden administration renewed its efforts to strengthen the transatlantic relationship, focusing on better management of its military relations with other NATO states.

Second, woo the relatively neutral countries and regions.In recent years, the Modi government of India is getting closer the United States.Despite the pressure imposed by the US, ASEAN countries have stayed firm in opposing taking side with the US, while the heads of Singapore, the Philippines, and Indonesia among others called on multiple public occasions for détente between China and the United States.

Third, work on those countries that are short of strategic independence.From May 2017 to August 2018, Panama, Dominica and El Salvador successively severed formal ties with Taiwan and established diplomatic relations with China, soon after which the US called back its ambassadors to those countries and cancelled meeting with their officials to express its discontent with the decisions made by these countries.Although Africa is not on the US’ priority list, the Biden administration is trying to rope in African countries against China with Western countries by hyping up such topics as the “debt trap theory”, the “resource grab theory” and the “neo-authoritarianism”.

II.Major Tactics Adopted by the US in Contending for the “Middle Ground”

First, deprive China of its right to international discourse and control international organizations through “multilateral means”.The return of the Biden administration to international organizations followed such logic that if the US is absent, China will take the leadership in international organizations.Since the beginning of 2021, the US has made the COVID-19 origin tracing a political issue, which has somewhat shaken the positions of the WHO and UN officials, showing the effects of US return to those international organizations.

Second, emphasize value-oriented diplomacy.The US has gathered relevant countries under the banner of values.NATO has come to the belief that China has posed a threat to Western values and European countries should face up their common strategic rival through systematic forces.Under such a banner, some European and Asia-Pacific countries have gathered to form cliques.

Third, strengthen control on allies.Biden has expressed the US is determined to “re-engage Europe”.With the slogan “America is back”, the Biden administration has stepped up control on its allies.In the Asia-Pacific, the Biden administration has strengthened its ties with Japan, India and Australia.In Europe, the US is willing to give more strategic autonomy to its allies so long as they are to join US’ strategic competition with China.

Fourth, seek for a “stable and predictable US-Russia relationship” and Russia’s neutrality in US’ strategic competition with China.In June 2021, Biden met Putin for the first time as US president, reaching a consensus with Russia on stabilizing bilateral relations.In July and September the same year, the two countries met again at working levels, with their discussions going beyond the number of their respective strategic weapons.

III.Options for China to Win over the “Middle Ground”

First, refine the work methods for winning over the “middle ground” countries.Not all the countries seemingly willing to join US’ strategic competition with China will follow the US step by step, as seen in EU’s hesitation.So, China should not change its overall policy toward Europe or stop communication with European countries due to the fact that some individual European countries changed its attitude toward China.ASEAN is changing its past behavior featuring dependence on China in terms of economy and trade and on the US for security.Even the claimant states around the South China Sea will not wish to get involved in the strategic competition between China and the United States.However hard the US woos ASEAN countries, they will not join the US in its strategic competition with China.Therefore, there is a huge “middle ground” for China to win over among ASEAN countries.

Second, continue to do a good job on promoting friendly relations with neighboring countries.Being double-minded, Japan is following the US closely, but it also has its own selfish agenda, that is to rise with the help of the United States.Besides, there is a broad space for China and Japan to engage in economic and trade cooperation.The ROK is keen on pursuing a relatively independent foreign policy.So, we should take a different approach to ROK, and not crackdown on it for its certain policy change.As India is aspired to become a major country, we must put emphasis on the significance of maintaining stable relations between China and India.A window of opportunity for development arises in Afghanistan after the establishment of a Taliban government, which calls China to actively participate in Afghan reconstruction.

Third, further strengthen the “comprehensive strategic partnership of coordination for the new era” with Russia.Although Russia will sometimes cooperate with the US in certain areas and seek stable bilateral relations, it will never follow the US closely as it has its own major-country pursuit.Therefore, we should explore more areas for cooperation with Russia and advance China-Russia relations toward a cooperation partnership.

Fourth, leverage multilateral communications.China upholds multilateral diplomatic mechanism, and plays a growing important role in international organizations, such as the United Nations, which has contributed greatly to world peace and development.In this regard, China should further strengthen its communication with international organizations, put forward China’s proposal on global governance, and provide more public goods to break the shackles of US unilateralism.

Fifth, strengthen cooperation with regional organizations.As the SCO, BRICS and the RCEP play an important role in promoting regional development, China should attach great importance to communication and coordination among these regional organizations and step up its support to them to ensure that these mechanisms will not be broken by the United States.

(Teng Jianqun is senior research fellow from China Institute of International Studies; and Wei Honglang is graduate student from the Foreign Studies College of Hunan Normal University.This article was received on August 9, 2021.)