“雙碳”背景下電動汽車供應鏈脆弱性影響因素分析

摘 要：“雙碳”目標是應對氣候變化問題的重大戰略。汽車行業大力推廣電動汽車的使用，使得車輛周期的碳排放越來越值得關注。如何確定“雙碳”背景下電動汽車供應鏈脆弱性影響因素并分析是電動汽車行業需要解決的問題。考慮專家意見的模糊性，采用畢達哥拉斯模糊DEMATEL確定影響因素間的相互關系，結合ANP確定各影響因素的優先級，提出了模糊DEMATEL-ANP模型。研究結果表明：行業生態不完善、市場需求不確定性、缺乏重構設計的能力、低碳減排指標的約束、原材料供應不穩定性、政策以及補貼調整是“雙碳”背景下電動汽車供應鏈脆弱性重要影響因素。

關鍵詞：“雙碳”背景；電動汽車供應鏈；脆弱性影響因素；模糊DEMATEL-ANP

中圖分類號：F570.72 文獻標志碼：A DOI：10.13714/j.cnki.1002-3100.2024.14.023

文章編號：1002-3100（2024）14-0115-06

Analysis of Factors Influencing Vulnerability in the Supply Chain of Electric Vehicles Under the Background of “Dual Carbon”

LIAO Yulian，XU Wenping （School of Management， Wuhan University of Science and Technology， Wuhan 430000， China）

Abstract： The \"dual carbon\" target is a major strategy to address climate change. The automotive industry is promoting the use of electric vehicles， making the carbon emissions of the vehicle cycle more and more concerning. How to determine and analyze the factors influencing vulnerability in the electric vehicle supply chain under the background of \"dual carbon\" is a problem for the electric vehicle industry. Considering the ambiguity of expert opinions， the fuzzy DEMATEL-ANP model is proposed by using Pythagorean fuzzy DEMETAL to determine the correlation between influencing factors， and combining ANP to determine the priority of each influencing factor. The results show that the imperfect industry ecology， uncertainty of market demand， lack of ability to reconstruct design， constraints on low-carbon emission reduction indicators， instability of raw material supply， and policy and subsidy adjustment are important factors affecting the vulnerability of the electric vehicle supply chain under the background of \"dual carbon\".

Key words： \"dual carbon\" background；electric vehicle supply chain；factors influencing vulnerability；fuzzy DEMATEL-ANP

0 引 言

全球變暖趨勢仍持續，氣候變化問題值得關注。“雙碳”目標是我國加入《巴黎協定》后為應對氣候變化問題而做出的戰略性部署。國際能源署（IEA）發布的《2022年CO2排放報告》表明，2022年我國CO2排放量約為114.8億噸，我國仍是CO2排放量較大的國家。[1]汽車行業全生命周期碳排放總量達12億噸，是我國實現“雙碳”目標重點關注行業之一。[2]我國汽車行業燃料周期碳排放量占全生命周期碳排放量超過70%，傳統汽油車仍占據汽車保有量的主導地位。純電動車相比傳統汽油車，其碳排放減少43.4%[3]。大力推行電動汽車的使用有利于幫助汽車行業實現“雙碳”目標。電動汽車需求上升使得車輛周期碳排放量占比增加，車輛周期碳排放量逐步吸引關注。……