基于演化博弈的城市公共交通出行激勵機(jī)制研究

摘 要：外部環(huán)境機(jī)制作為影響交通出行方式選擇的要因，在交通流轉(zhuǎn)移、緩解交通擁堵問題中起至關(guān)重要的作用。將激勵機(jī)制引入公共交通管理機(jī)制，運(yùn)用演化博弈的理論建立以出行人群和軌交公司為主體的復(fù)制動態(tài)方程，探索采用激勵機(jī)制下主體雙方的演化路徑和演化規(guī)律，并應(yīng)用Matlab對演化結(jié)果進(jìn)行數(shù)據(jù)仿真驗證。均衡點穩(wěn)定性分析和仿真結(jié)果表明：合理的激勵機(jī)制能夠有效引導(dǎo)交通流轉(zhuǎn)移至公共交通網(wǎng)絡(luò)。同時，交通管理部門的監(jiān)管程度與軌交公司的策略選擇、外界社會的關(guān)注程度與出行人群的策略選擇這兩組變量之間有正相關(guān)性。

關(guān)鍵詞：出行方式選擇；演化博弈論；激勵機(jī)制；公共交通管理

中圖分類號：F572 文獻(xiàn)標(biāo)志碼：A DOI：10.13714/j.cnki.1002-3100.2024.14.010

文章編號：1002-3100（2024）14-0047-05

Research on Incentive Mechanism for Urban Public Transportation Based on Evolutionary Game Theory

HUI Chenxi，ZHU Congkun（School of Civil Engineering， Suzhou University of Science and Technology， Suzhou 215011， China）

Abstract： As a crucial factor affecting the choice of travel mode， external environmental mechanisms play a vital role in traffic flow diversion and alleviating traffic congestion. Introducing incentive mechanisms into public transportation management mechanisms， using evolutionary game theory to establish a replicated dynamic equation with the travel population and rail transit companies as the main body， exploring the evolutionary paths and laws of both parties under incentive mechanisms， and applying Matlab to verify the evolutionary results through data simulation. The stability analysis of equilibrium points and simulation results indicate that a reasonable incentive mechanism can effectively guide traffic flow to transfer to the public transportation network. At the same time， there is a positive correlation between the level of supervision by the transportation management department and the strategic choices of rail transit companies， as well as the level of attention from the outside society and the strategic choices of the traveling population.

Key words： travel mode selection; evolutionary game theory; incentive mechanisms; public transportation management

0 引 言

現(xiàn)今，我國民用汽車保有量以16.0%的年平均增速增長，城市交通狀況面臨嚴(yán)峻挑戰(zhàn)。尤其在工作日上下班通勤高峰期內(nèi)，出行路徑、出行方式及個體資源約束的多樣化，使得城市居民出行結(jié)構(gòu)及路網(wǎng)均衡問題日益復(fù)雜。公共交通系統(tǒng)因其載客量大、能源消耗和交通污染物排放量低成為緩解城市交通擁擠問題的一項行之有效的交通管理戰(zhàn)略。除大力發(fā)展建設(shè)公共交通系統(tǒng)之外，還需要提高公共交通使用率，在現(xiàn)有條件下利用管理機(jī)制促使私家車出行向公共交通有效轉(zhuǎn)移成為解決此類問題的一個重要課題。

除了個人社會經(jīng)濟(jì)特性外，許多研究表明外部環(huán)境機(jī)制對出行者交通工具的選擇具有重要的影響。……