新疆農(nóng)村物流對農(nóng)村經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展影響研究

摘" 要：為明確新疆農(nóng)村物流對農(nóng)村經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的影響，文章基于新疆維吾爾自治區(qū)生產(chǎn)總值GDP（億元）、農(nóng)產(chǎn)品貨運量（萬噸）以及貨物周轉(zhuǎn)量（億噸公里）數(shù)據(jù)，運用變量之間關(guān)系圖中存在的轉(zhuǎn)折點年份以及2014年政策的發(fā)布，借此引入虛擬變量進(jìn)行虛擬回歸分析。結(jié)果表明：（1）以2016年為轉(zhuǎn)折點，農(nóng)產(chǎn)品貨運量對新疆經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響在2016年之前比2016年之后更大；（2）以2014年發(fā)布政策為轉(zhuǎn)折點，固定其他因素不變發(fā)布政策以后，平均說來新疆生產(chǎn)總值GDP是發(fā)布政策之前的e0.34倍。提出相應(yīng)建議如下：（1）政府要實時掌握農(nóng)產(chǎn)品實體市場并及時調(diào)節(jié)；（2）持續(xù)完善農(nóng)村物流體系，加強農(nóng)村物流基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè)；（3）提高農(nóng)村信息化水平；（4）提高農(nóng)村居民的教育水平；（5）加強人才培養(yǎng)與引進(jìn)，提升農(nóng)村物流人才綜合素質(zhì)。

關(guān)鍵詞：農(nóng)村物流；農(nóng)村經(jīng)濟(jì)；虛擬回歸分析

中圖分類號：F259.27" " 文獻(xiàn)標(biāo)志碼：A

DOI：10.13714/j.cnki.1002-3100.2024.15.022

Abstract：In order to clarify the impact of rural logistics in Xinjiang on rural economic development， this paper based on the data of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region's GDP（100 million yuan）， agricultural products cargo volume（tons）and weekly cargo load（100 million tons/km）， by using the turning point years existing in the relationship graph between variables and the policy release of \"Medium and Long Term Development Plan of Logistics Industry（2014-2020）\" in 2014， virtual variables were introduced to carry out virtual regression analysis. The results showed as follows：（1）Taking 2016 as the turning point， the impact of agricultural freight volume on Xinjiang's economy was greater before 2016 than after 2016;（2）Taking the policy issued in 2014 as the turning point， the GDP of Xinjiang was 0.34 times of the E0.34 times before the policy of \"Medium-and Long-Term Plan for the Development of Logistics Industry（2014-2020）\" after the policy of \"Medium-and Long-Term Plan for the Development of Logistics Industry（2014

-2020）\" after the policy of \"Medium-and Long-Term Plan for the Development of Logistics Industry（2014-2020）\" was released. Suggestions are as follows：（1）The government should grasp the real market of agricultural products in real time and adjust it in time;（2）Continue to improve the rural logistics system strengthen the construction of rural logistics infrastructure;（3）Improve the level of rural informatization;（4）To improve the education level of rural residents;（5）Strengthen talent cultivation and introduction，improving the comprehensive quality of rural logistics lalents.

Key words： rural logistics; rural economy; virtual regression analysis

0" 引" 言

2020年10月，農(nóng)業(yè)農(nóng)村部在十三屆全國人大三次會議上提出，在推進(jìn)農(nóng)產(chǎn)品冷鏈物流設(shè)施建設(shè)上，將進(jìn)一步完善相關(guān)政策措施。黨的二十大報告提出“加快發(fā)展物聯(lián)網(wǎng)，建設(shè)高效順暢的流通體系，降低物流成本”。2022年12月國務(wù)院辦公廳印發(fā)《“十四五”現(xiàn)代物流發(fā)展規(guī)劃》，提出“補齊農(nóng)村物流發(fā)展短板”、“打造經(jīng)營規(guī)范、集約高效的農(nóng)村物流服務(wù)網(wǎng)絡(luò)，加快工業(yè)品下鄉(xiāng)、農(nóng)產(chǎn)品出村雙向物流服務(wù)通道升級擴(kuò)容、提質(zhì)增效”?！凹涌焱晟瓶h農(nóng)村電子商務(wù)和快遞物流配送體系，建設(shè)縣域集采集配中心，大力發(fā)展共同配送”也被寫入了2023年中央一號文件?！?br>