The Influence of China’s Fertility Policy Adjustment on China’s Economic Growth

Abstract：On the basis of retrieving the literature and research results of population dividend problem in China from 2001 to 2017，How to adjust the fertility policy to influence the economic growth through the demographic dividend.Sort out the impact of fertility policy adjustment on the demographic dividend and the relationship between population dividends and economic growth and its economic development.

Key Words：Fertility policy adjustment；population dividend；economic growth

1 introduction

Statistics show that Chinas total fertility rate has continued to decline，from 5.81 in the early 1970s to about 1.8 in the mid-to-late period of the 1990s （Yan Ping et al.，2003），and then to the fifth census in 2000.1.22，while the data for the sixth census in 2010 fell even further to a staggering 1.18，indicating that China has entered a stage of severe degeneracy.Against this backdrop，in order to meet the challenges of persistently low fertility and the aging of the population，the Chinese government began to fully release the birth of two children after the Fifth Plenary Session of the 18th Central Committee.How does the current government relax the family planning policys impact on economic growth through the demographic dividend？

2 The influence of the adjustment of birth policy on the demographic dividend

Scholars are divided into two groups.One school believes that it is impossible to influence the demographic dividend through adjusting the birth control policy.One school believes that it is necessary to adjust the childbirth policy to prolong the demographic dividend.The former said that Whether the demographic dividend disappears or whether the aging society has arrived is not transferred by whether or not to adjust the childbearing policy.Looking at the world，the rest is completed.The population transfer countries did not implement family planning policies.Huang Mao Chunmei and Li Meicun （2016） agree that the implementation of the two-child policy can extend the first demographic dividend by providing labor force population and provide a good opportunity for the second demographic dividend.Liu Jiaqiang and Tang Daisheng （2015） thought that the gradual release of the family planning policy was in line with Chinas current population development reality.The “comprehensive two-child” policy was fully consistent with the logic of population policy development and could extend the harvest of demographic dividends.A comprehensive two-child policy is the key to solving this problem.Ren Yuan （2017） suggested reforming “family planning” and exploring “new family planning”，“acquiring demographic dividends” and developing and creating “new demographic dividends”.

3 Conditions for demographic dividends to promote economic growth

The population opportunity window does not mean demographic dividends.The population age structure with a large proportion of the labor force with a strong advantage does not mean that it can directly generate demographic dividends to promote economic growth.It is conditional that the demographic dividend should work.There are three major conditions.The first is also the premise that the labor resources must be fully utilized.The second condition is the requirement of the system.The labor must be allowed to move freely and it can be well transferred from the countryside.Wang Feng （2006） believes that large-scale labor flow from rural areas to cities，cities，and rural areas has contributed to economic growth.The third condition is also the direction of future sustainable development.It is to improve the quality of the workforce.Zhao Yuqi et al.（2012） based on data from 285 prefecture-level cities from 2001 to 2010 show that increasing investment in education can increase human capital and increase per capita output.

REFERENCES

[1]David E.Bloom，David Canning，and Jaypee Sevilla.The Demographic Dividend：A New Perspective on the Economic Consequences of Population Change，2002.

[2]Mason，Andrew.Demographic dividends：the past，the present，and the future.Population Change，Labor markets and Sustainable Growth：Towards a New Economic Paradigm，2007.

作者簡介

趙雪雅（1994—），女，漢族，四川成都人，云南財經大學勞動經濟學專業碩士研究生，研究方向為人力資本投資，指導教師是袁志剛。