基于Mann—Kendall的北方農(nóng)牧交錯(cuò)帶植被時(shí)空變化分析

羅倩+劉曉暄+蘇偉

摘要：中國北方農(nóng)牧交錯(cuò)帶是時(shí)農(nóng)時(shí)牧過渡帶，植被生態(tài)特征是反映區(qū)域生態(tài)質(zhì)量的重要指標(biāo)，分析該區(qū)域的植被生態(tài)特征的時(shí)空變化規(guī)律具有重要意義。基于時(shí)間序列MODIS-NDVI數(shù)據(jù)和土地覆被數(shù)據(jù)，利用均值法、分段線性回歸法和Mann-Kendall趨勢分析法，對(duì)北方農(nóng)牧交錯(cuò)帶2001-2013年間各種植被的生態(tài)特征時(shí)間變化情況、不同生態(tài)脆弱區(qū)的空間差異情況進(jìn)行分析。結(jié)果表明，在時(shí)間尺度上，北方農(nóng)牧交錯(cuò)帶植被生態(tài)特征處于緩慢恢復(fù)態(tài)勢，并且近幾年植被恢復(fù)速度大于前十年;從空間上尺度來看，陜西和黑龍江所在區(qū)域是植被恢復(fù)面積比率最大、恢復(fù)速率最快、植被恢復(fù)情況最為明顯的區(qū)域;青海和河北的植被近年來整體處于恢復(fù)的趨勢，但是也有相對(duì)較大面積的區(qū)域植被出現(xiàn)顯著的退化趨勢;生態(tài)脆弱和人類活動(dòng)變化是導(dǎo)致青海和河北區(qū)域植被恢復(fù)相對(duì)不明顯的原因。

關(guān)鍵詞：Mann-Kendall;中國北方農(nóng)牧交錯(cuò)帶;NDVI;植被生態(tài)特征;土地覆被

中圖分類號(hào)：S127 ? ? ? ?文獻(xiàn)標(biāo)識(shí)碼：A ? ? ? ?文章編號(hào)：0439-8114（2015）23-5891-05

DOI：10.14088/j.cnki.issn0439-8114.2015.23.023

Vegetation Spatial and Temporal Variation Analysis Based on the Mann-Kendall Patternsin the Agricultural-Pastoral Areas

LUO Qian1，LIU Xiao-xuan1，SU Wei1，2

（1.College of Information and Electrical Engineering， China Agricultural University， Beijing 100083， China;

2.Key Laboratory of Agricultural information acquisition technology ，Ministry of Agricultural， Beijing 100083， China）

Abstract：The Agricultural-Pastoral Areas in northern China is a farming grazing transitional zone， vegetation ecological characteristics is one of the important indicators reflecting the regional ecological quality， so the analysis of the regional vegetation ecological characteristics of space and time variation law is of great significance. This article based on time series MODIS-NDVI data and land cover data， using the average method， ?piecewise linear regression method and Mann-Kendall analysis method ，to the north patterns in 2001-2013 annual NDVI change trend， NDVI in various regions， especially in poor ecological restoration area change tendency were analyzed. Results were showed that the time scale， the agriculture and animal husbandry ecotone vegetation ecological characteristics in a slow recovery， and vegetation restoration in recent years faster than in the past ten years; from the point of space scale， Shanxi and Heilongjiang area's vegetation restoration area ratio is the largest， fastest recovery rate， vegetation recovery is the most obvious area; Qinghai and Hebei province in recent years， the overall recovery of vegetation in the trend， but there are relatively large areas of significant regional vegetation degradation trend; ecologically fragile change and human activity is relatively in Qinghai and Hebei regional vegetation restoration is not obvious.

Key words： Mann-Kendall; Agricultural-Pastoral Areas of Northern; NDVI; vegetation ecological features; land coverendprint

中國北方農(nóng)牧交錯(cuò)帶是一條典型的生態(tài)脆弱帶，既是從干旱地區(qū)向濕潤地區(qū)、從高原地區(qū)向丘陵、平原地區(qū)、從畜牧業(yè)向農(nóng)業(yè)過渡的脆弱帶，又是荒漠化威脅最嚴(yán)重的地區(qū)，還是中國最重要的生態(tài)屏障[1]。該區(qū)域在抵御自然災(zāi)害的侵蝕，有效化解各種自然災(zāi)害，減低風(fēng)險(xiǎn)起到重要的屏障作用。其次，半干旱區(qū)域能夠?qū)Ρ３种袊霛駶櫦Z食主產(chǎn)區(qū)的生態(tài)、水資源和氣候穩(wěn)定起重要作用[2]。……