金融危機對中國進出口的影響及對策

摘要:金融危機的爆發與蔓延，從多個方面對我國進出口產生了嚴重影響。文章分析了金融危機對我國進出口發展的影響，并提出相應的應對策略。

關鍵詞:金融危機 進出口 影響 對策

Abstract：The outbreak and spread of the financial crisis of 2009 has led to serious influence on the import and export of China from several aspects.This essay analyzes the effect of the financial crisis on the development of import and export of our country， and put forward corresponding strategies to deal with the problem.

Key Words:financial crisis import and export influence strategy

Financial crisis caused by the world economic recession has had a great impact on the economy of our country.Because our country depend greatly on the foreign economy， the import and export of our country will face great risk.This crisis shows that changing the style of economic growth in our country is necessary and urgent.

1.TheWay that the Financial Crisis Affects the Import and Export

1.1 Trade Transmission

The financial crisisaffects the economy of our country through the rapidly shrinking of overseas market demand.In the United States， the European Union， Japan and other developed countries， many enterprises suffered from serious losses and the employment situation in those countries continues to deteriorate.As a result， waiting until the economic stimulus measures really take effect still needs a long time.For example，after the crisis， the wealth of the United States shrunk dramatically and the consumer spending also reduces greatly， which led to the reduction of import demand.This effect acts directly on the countries that have trading relationship with the United States.Thus the export demand of these countries reduces greatly.

1.2 Investment Transmission

Financial crisis affects the international capital flow.Most of the countries in the world are adopting economic or financial policies such as interest rates cutting， capital injection and financial subsidies to overcome the recession， which has changed the capital supply and demand in the international financial market.This situation not only will bring a new round of severe adjustment in the financial market of the developed countries， but also may cause large amount of capital withdraw in developing countries.Because of severity shortage of the liquidity in domestic capital market， many countries are intended to withdraw the overseas capital to ensure the stability of the domestic market， which will add to the volatility of short-term capital flow worldwide.

1.3 Exchange Rate Transmission

TheUnited States， the European Union， Japan and other countries has adjusted their interest rate several times under the effect of the financial crisis， which led to severe fluctuation of the exchange rate of the major currency and eventually made the material price fluctuates greatly.This consequence exposed great impact on the manufacturing enterprise in China.Whats more， since the currency in some developing countries exposing similar product structure with our country has depreciated against the US dollars， the price advantage of the export products in our country will face great impact.All this will make the export enterprises in our country， especially small and medium enterprises， face great pressure

2.The Influence of the Financial Crisis on the Import and Export in China

2.1 The Deterioration of the Import and Export Environment

In the situationthat the international trade falls sharply and the market becomes more competitive， worldwide trade protectionism intensifies further.According to the survey by WTO， the members of WTO launched 211 measures about trade restrictions from September 2008 to March 2009.As a result， China's export trade barriers have the trend to increase continuously and tend to be diversified.The Council estimate that the exportation of 70% light industry enterprises in our country will be affected， with those competitive products worst affected.In addition， trade protectionism has also used some new methods， such as increasing industry allowance， restricting imported products， etc.Trade protectionism makes the companies in our country faces serious trade environment， and the impact of the import and export of our country will be further.

2.2 The Continuous Decrease of the Import and Export

Since the external demand was generally weaker and the import of main trading partners declined， the export of our country is descending.According to the statistics by the Customs， from January to April2009， China's import and export total value is $599.41 billion， with a 24.3% drop.Among them the value of export is $337.42 billion， down 20.5%; the value of import is $261.99 billion， down 28.7%.In the bilateral trade between our country and our major trading partners such as the Europe， the U.S and Japan， the total trading value dropped 24.1%， 17.1% and 23.8% in April.In addition， the total import and export with the Asians， Brazil's has decreased by 23.3% and 7.1% respectively compared; the import and export value Inland and in Hong Kong also declined 22.7% year-on-year.

2.3 The Decline of Foreign Investment and the Pessimistic Prospect of the Import and Export

The shrinking of the international market demand and the reduction of international liquidity capitals make most of the foreign-funded enterprises in China to reduce or delay investment in China.Since October 2008， actually used foreign capital by our country has dropped for consecutive seven months.From January to April 2009， new established foreign invested enterprises are 6241， with a 34.2% year-on-year drop; the actual amount of used foreign investment is 27.67 billion US dollars， with an up 21% decline.Enterprises with foreign investment in China compose the biggest part in the import and export of China and the processing trade is the main ways of foreign investment enterprises trade.But in the first quarter of 2009， imports of Chinese processing trade have fell by 35.7%.These statistics show that the prospect of the import and export is pessimistic.

3.The Strategies against Financial Crisis

3.1 Expand the Domestic Demand

First， we should expand the investment.Our State Council has decided to take ten measures to invest 4 trillion Yuan RMB to stimulate the economy in the next two years.At the same time， we must pay attention to the fields that we choose to invest and improve the efficiency of investment.Second， we should encourage more consumption in our country.For example， we can cut the tax， expand social security and improve the income of residents to stimulate the consumption.In short， we still have a large as space in the expansion of domestic demand.

3.2 Stabilize the Financial Market

First of all，we should stabilize the market price.During the period that the international market price of the main products is decreasing， we can promote the price formation mechanism of some resources-type commodity in our country.In addition， we can set up the market trued fund in the capital market and strengthen the confidence of investors by smoothing the capital market.Second， we need to implement aid to the medium-sized and small enterprises which suffered from great impact.Our Nation should regulate the pace of the RMB appreciation.That is both to form the pressure on enterprise and to make the enterprise able to adjust and adapt to the change， thus speeding up the upgrade of industry and change the way of growth.

3.3 Regulate the Development of Financial Industry

In thepyramid structure of the United States transaction， the trade activities served for the entity economy are at the bottom and account for only a small proportion.The upper composition of the pyramid is the complicated financial derivatives trade activities.This kind of financial transaction structure has a high leverage ratio and a great risk.Therefore， we should learn from this lesson and insist the principle that financial development should serve for the economic.At the same time， we should adhere to the credit standards， regulate the financial development and play a better role to serve for the economic entity.

3.4 Participate in Global Financial Rescue

Through the rescue，we help to maintain the stability of world economy and the international monetary and financial system.At the same time， we can participate the action of promoting regional financial cooperation， international financial regulatory cooperation， international financial organizations reform and promote the diversification of the international monetary system.

4.Conclusion

Global financialcrisis has brought many difficulties and challenges to the enterprises in our country.In order to deal with the problem， our country has issued several policies to support the import and export.As the economy gets warmer， we believe that our nation will successfully get over the depression.

(責任編輯：李孟明)