2024 US General Election and Changes in its Party Politics

The US 2024 general election ended with the Republican Party winning the presidential， House and Senate elections at the same time. In the presidential election， the Republican Party not only won more popular votes in over 90% counties than in the 2020 general election， but also won seven highly contested swing States with greater edges. This also marks the first time since 2004 that the Republican Party has won a relative majority of popular votes in the presidential election. The “red wave” successfully pulled off by the Republican Party with Trump at the helm in the 2024 general election broke the “blue wall” that the Democratic Party struggled to build up， and once again sent Trump and the highly “Trumpized” Republican Party to the center of US politics.

The results of the 2024 general election not only reflect the changing balance of power in American political parties， but also show that the voter camp realignment of the two parties has been further solidified. Trump， winner of the election， has full control over the Republican Party， marking the completion of “Trumpization” of the Republican Party. The Democratic Party， which lost the election， drifted away from the working class， thus losing its “soul” since Roosevelt’s New Deal. The end of the general election in 2024 indicates the beginning of a new stage of change in American party politics. Whether the two parties can effectively transform themselves against US democracy decline will not only influence the evolution of domestic politics in the United States， but also affect the future interaction between itself and the rest of the world.

Trump’s Return and the Change of Balance of Power between the Two Parties

The performance of the Republican Party in the 2024 general election， especially Trump’s strong performance in the presidential election， undoubtedly beat expectations of most observers and polls. With the “better-than-expected” performance of the Republican Party， Trump went through a gorgeous turn from being entangled in lawsuits to being in power， becoming the second president in American history to serve nonconsecutive terms. In the Senate election， the Republican Party gained 4 more seats and regained control of the Senate again since 2018. In the House of Representatives election， although the Republicans lost two seats， they still maintained the majority position with a slight advantage. Therefore， the Republican Party can be called a big winner in the 2024 general election， and since Trump was first elected in 2016， it has once again achieved the so-called “unified government” with a Republican “trifecta”.

As far as the presidential election is concerned， the Republican Party has indeed formed a strong suppression over the Democrats. The so-called “red shift” has appeared in almost all the 50 states and Washington， D.C. Even in the “deep blue states” like New York and New Jersey， the Republican Party has achieved more than 10% vote growth. The Democrats， on the other hand， “have achieved nothing but losses” as they not only failed to “turn blue” any state， but also lost hundreds of thousands of votes in big cities such as New York and LA.

On the other hand， there has been no fundamental change in the balance of power between the two parties in Congress. Looking back at the comparative changes in the seats of the two parties in Congress since Roosevelt’s New Deal， it is not hard to find that the number of seats owned by the two parties is getting ever closer. The gap between the seats of the two parties in the House has dropped from a peak of 246 to less than 10 in recent years， and the gap in the Senate has gradually narrowed from a record 60 in 1936 to less than 10 in recent years. It can be therefore considered that the balance of power between the two parties in Congress has already changed from the old normal of disparity in strength to a new normal of “even game”， and the so-called “insecure majority” has become a new feature of the change of US party politics. The balance of power has undoubtedly intensified the power struggle between the two parties. As the single-digit change of seats can alter the control of Congress， the two parties must go all-out to win every election， and at the same time constantly strengthen the differences between themselves and their opponents in values and policy positions. In other words， the narrowing of the seat gap between the two parties has actually deepened the polarization between the pair and made the party struggle ever more intensive.

Compared with the presidential election， the Republican Party did not win an “overwhelming victory” over the Democratic Party in the congressional election. After the election， the seat gap between the two in the Senate and the House is less than ten. Such a small seat gap means that the Republicans have not won overwhelmingly， and the Democrats have not lost miserably. The basic balance of power between the two in Congress has not been upset， and it is highly likely that the majority and the minority Party will swap positions again when the next election comes.

Voter Class Realignment and Solidification of the Two Parties

As early as the first presidential election in 2016， Trump mentioned， “you are going to have a workers’ party. A party of people that haven’t had a real wage increase in 18 years， that are angry.” The results of the 2016 presidential election show that the support rate of white working-class people without college education for Trump is as high as 67%. Trump’s positive response to the frustration and anger of white workers helped him defeat Hillary. In the subsequent two general elections in 2020 and 2024， the support rate of the working class for Trump remained high， at 67% and 66% respectively. In other words， Trump， who holds high the banner of “America First”， placed “high hopes” on the working class from the beginning. By using economic distribution issues to “lure voters with benefit”， he won over the working class through promises such as more jobs， deflation and tax reduction. On the one hand， he plays up social value issues such as race and immigration to unite the working class. The working class used the ballot to “return the favor” and sent Trump to the White House twice. As Trump gained great support among working-class voters， some scholars suggested that Trump created a new political party， a “working-class Republican Party”.

The Republican Party has always been regarded as “the party of big capitalists” in American politics， while the Democratic Party is regarded as “the party of the working class”. However， time has changed， and data show that the Democrats and Republicans have experienced a significant class realignment in a less noticeable way. According to ANES data， the support rate for the Republican Party by white working-class people who have no college degrees and whose family incomes are lower than the national median has exceeded 50% as early as the 1980s， and has been steadily on the rise since 2000. It has remained at a high level of around 60% in the past 10 years. Relatively speaking， the support rate of highly-educated voters with college diplomas and above for the Republican Party gradually decreased from 71% in 1952 to 35% in 2020， while the support rate for the Democratic Party gradually increased from 29% to 65% in the same period. In addition， the high-income （top 5%） group’s support rate for the Republican Party dropped from an all-time high of 82% in 1980 to an all-time low of 42% in 2020. Its support rate for the Democratic Party showed an obvious upward trend in general， although with ups and downs， and climbed to an all-time high of 58% in 2020. Some scholars used the ANES data to measure the changes of American voters’ support rate for the two parties from 1948 to 2020， and found that the support rate of high-education and high-income groups for the Democratic Party increased by 41% and 22% respectively in 72 years.

In short， the data clearly show that the two parties have completed the realignment of the voter class in the past few decades. More voters with high education and high income （professional elites） have joined the Democratic Party， while more voters with low education and low income （blue-collar workers） have become Republican supporters. Working-class voters have changed from supporters of the Democratic Party to the base of the Republican Party.

The transformation of the Republican Party into a “working-class party” has subverted the tradition of American politics， but it is a reality that cannot be ignored in the current changes of American party politics. Trump’s “debut” in 2016 and his profound influence on the Republican Party in the past eight years have further solidified the class realignment of the two parties， especially strengthening the position of the Republican Party as a new generation of “working-class party”. As mentioned above， the class realignment of the two parties is not completed overnight. It can be traced back to the late 1960s at the earliest. Therefore， the “Trump phenomenon” is not the cause of the realignment， but the key to its further solidification. Trump’s voter strategy， as well as his domestic and foreign policies in the first term， not only continued to enhance the appeal of the Republican Party to the white working-class population， but also attracted more working-class voters for the Republican Party. In the 2024 presidential election， Trump won the support of 68% white male working-class voters， and his support rate among African-American （especially male） voters （20%） was significantly higher than that in 2020 （13%） and 2016 （8%）. He also won the support of 55% of Hispanic male voters. At the same time， Trump also won the support of nearly two-thirds of voters without a college degree. Among ethnic minority voters without a college degree， Trump’s lead over the Democratic Party has expanded from 4% in 2020 to 12% in 2024.

Therefore， the results of the 2024 general election show that Trump can attract not only white working-class people， but also working-class people of ethnic minorities. Not only can he consolidate the Republican Party’s voter base among low-education and low-income groups， but also make bigger the “ethnic cake” of the Republican camp. After the general election in 2024， a “Trump New Deal Alliance”， which features protectionism in trade， conservatism in culture， isolationism in diplomacy and so-called “populist conservatism” as its true color， has taken shape and will certainly continue to influence the political development of the United States in the next four years.

The “Trumpization” of the Republican Party and the Loss of the Democratic Party’s Soul

According to Gallup’s post-election poll， the reaction of voters of the two parties to the results of the 2024 general election is diametrically opposed. Most Republicans and independent voters with a favorable view of the Republican Party responded positively to Trump’s victory， including optimistic （86%）， relieved （85%）， excited （76%） and proud （72%）. Most Democrats and independent voters who support Democrats are afraid （76%）， angry （68%） and devastated （61%）， and Democrats are more than twice as surprised by the election results as Republicans （59% to 27%）. At the same time， 91% of the respondents said that they would accept Trump as the legitimate president， including 99% of Republicans and their supporters， and 84% of Democrats and their supporters， while the data in 2016 were 84%， 96% and 77% respectively. In other words， compared with Trump’s first election in 2016， the pride and excitement of the Republican Party have been significantly enhanced， and the sense of loss and fear of the Democratic Party has increased substantially. More Republicans and Democrats have accepted the results of Trump’s second election.

This situation of “some are happy while others are sad” is not only a true portrayal of the status quo of the two parties after the 2024 general election， it also indicates the development path of the two parties in the next four years. In fact， from the debut to the return， Trump has always been the main variable affecting American party politics in the past eight years， although its influence on the two parties is essentially different. Through the comprehensive transformation of the Republican Party’s values， the comprehensive voter realignment and “purification” of the political ecology， Trump injected a new “soul” into the “Grand Old Party”， and it can even be said that he himself is the “soul” of the Republican Party today. At the same time， in the struggle against Trump， the Democratic Party put the focus on opposing and defeating Trump. However， it lost its working-class voters and itself in the factional and power struggle within the party. It ultimately lost the so-called “fighting for the American soul”， and also its own “soul” to a certain extent.

If Trump’s return to the White House will directly determine the future of the Republican Party’s Trumpization， then the results of the 2024 election suffice to show that Trump’s transformation of the Republican Party has been successful and the Republican Party’s Trumpization has been completed.

First of all， the values advocated and pursued by Trump， such as MAGA and America First， have been internalized by the Republican Party into its own political ideas and policy programs. The Republican Party’s overall acceptance of Trump’s ideas can be seen in its 2024 party program. The party program is titled MAGA， with America First as the preface title， directly takes Trump’s various iconic slogans as the titles of each chapter， and the style of writing is as dictated by Trump himself.

Secondly， the further solidification of voter class realignment has provided a solid foundation for Trump’s authority within the party. Trump not only accelerated the “left-to-right” camp transition of white working class， but also enlarged the ethnic spectrum of Republican working class voters， and built a brand-new and more diverse Republican “multi-ethnic working class alliance” by attracting more African-American， Hispanic and Asian voters to turn right. Trump survived the political and judicial offensives of the opposition and the Democratic Party， and won the nomination of the Republican candidate in 2024 despite three major election losses （in 2018， 2022 and 2020）， because he is not only in firm control of the basic electorate of the party， but also able to expand territory and win more votes for the Republicans.

Finally， Trump’s leadership style of “uniting with those of the same views but alienating those with different views” and “cronyism” completely reshaped the internal political ecology of the Republican Party. Blessed with the 2024 election victory， Trump further consolidated his leadership authority. A series of major cabinet appointments after his election as president ensured his full control of the Republican Party’s personnel and policy agenda based on the power structure within the party. Looking around today’s Republican Party， the former establishment faction， be it the “anti-Trump faction” or “pseudo-Republicans”， has been completely marginalized. Therefore， whether out of sincere recognition and following of Trump or out of fear of the possibility of “liquidation and revenge”， supporting Trump and all his ideas has become a political correctness within the Republican Party.

If winning the election temporarily serves to cover up the possible problems of the Republican Party and Trump， then losing the election undoubtedly exposed the long-standing crisis of the Democratic Party. As early as the end of the mid-term election in 2014， William Grader， a famous American financial journalist， pointed out sharply that the reason for the Democratic Party’s defeat was that it was “completely divorced from ordinary people”. Instead of proposing a solution to its economic difficulties， it simply emphasized that “the Republican Party is worse than us”. He believes that the loss of the “soul” of the Democratic Party began with its abandonment of working-class voters. After the general election in 2024， Democratic Senator Sanders left an angry message on the social media platform X， which goes “it should come as no great surprise that a Democratic Party which has abandoned working class people would find that the working class has abandoned them”. It can be seen that the collective right turn of working-class people of different ethnic groups is not only the main reason why the Democratic Party lost the election， but also the key challenge that the Democratic Party must address in the future. To a certain extent， the victory of the Republican Party benefited from the complacency of the Democratic Party. It believed that cultural issues were more important than economic issues， that certain ethnic minorities had been “reserved” for the Democratic Party， that stoking voters’ disgust and fear of Trump was the “panacea” to win the election， and that the “blue wall” that stood the test of the “red wave” in the mid-term election in 2022 would continue to be unbreakable. However， what caused the Democratic Party to lose its way and the general election has been the obsession with past victories， the misjudgment of voters’ sentiments， the failure to recognize the ongoing voter class realignment of the two parties that took place much earlier， and the neglect of the advantages of the Republican Party and Trump’s campaign.

In view of this， the Democratic Party not only needs to find a “soul leader” who can fill the vacuum in the party leadership after Biden leaves office， but also come up with a set of political ideas that can help the Democratic Party win back the trust of the working class， attract more voters and inject new “soul” into the party. However， in the process of regaining the “soul” of the political party， the Democrats are bound to experience more “soul dilemma”， such as how to find a balance between regaining the low-educated and low-income working class and retaining the high-educated and high-income white-collar class， and how to find a balance between economic distribution issues and identity politics.

Conclusion

The twists and turns of the 2024 general election undoubtedly highlighted a series of problems in the decline of American democratic politics， such as the continuity of gerontocracy and the intergenerational fault of party leaders， the destruction of the Democratic Party’s primary election process by the power struggle during Harris’s “replacement” of Biden and a candidate who refused to recognize the results of the last election， was responsible for the riots on Capitol Hill， impeached twice， convicted by the judiciary and faced with criminal proceedings， and successfully nominated and elected within the party. In other words， the fierce struggle between the two parties in the United States has intensified the decline of American democracy and exposed a series of drawbacks of procedural democracy. Therefore， the future of the two parties in the United States depends not only on whether they can meet voters’ demands and constantly carry out effective self-transformation and innovation， but also on the changes and influences of the declining environment of American democratic politics. In any case， the general election in 2024 and Trump’s re-election have ushered in a new era of changes in American party politics， which is bound to have a far-reaching impact on American domestic and foreign affairs.

Xie Tao is Dean and Professor of the School of International Relations and Diplomacy of Beijing Foreign Studies University