Changes in World Party Politics in the Context of a “Super Election Year”

2024 is a “super election year” with the biggest influence in the world since World War II. About 80 countries covering about 60% of the world’s population hold national elections. The number and scale of elections are rare in history. The processes and results of many countries’ elections are so dramatic， with a series of exchanges， offenses and defenses， which further highlights the trend of intensified political confrontation and social division around the world. In general， the old order of the world is about to be broken but the new one is yet to be established， and the world is still in chaos although people hope for good governance. Against the backdrop of the turbulent adjustment of the international structure， the ups and downs of geopolitical conflicts， and the weak recovery of the global economy， the global “super election year” resonates with the great changes in the world unseen in a century， and the evolution of world party politics is undergoing more complex and profound changes.

The Rise of Right-wing Populism Has Intensified the Changes in the Landscape of Party Politics

Since the beginning of 2024， the Ukrainian crisis has dragged on， the Israeli-Palestinian conflict has continued， the competition between major powers has intensified， the gap between the rich and the poor in some countries has widened， the problem of refugees and immigration has become more prominent， and the anti-elite and anti-establishment mentality have accelerated the rise of populist forces. These discontent have provided opportunities for far-right parties to expand their influence and even seize power. The political middle camp of major countries has continued to decline， and the rightward shift of the ruling power center has further accelerated.

In the US election that attracted worldwide attention， Trump not only won the presidential election， but also used the trend of “Make America Great Again” to further reshape the “soul” of the Republican Party， making the party more populist. The far-right parties performed most outstandingly in Europe， not only gaining power in many countries， but also advancing to the power center of the European Parliament. At present， 14 of the 27 EU member states are governed by right-wing parties. Among all the member states， 26 countries except Malta have populist parties， with a total of more than 90. In the 2024 European Parliament elections， traditional right-wing forces stabilized and rebounded， and the influence of far-right parties is still expanding. The total number of seats taken by right-wing populist parties accounted for more than one-fifth. In the British parliamentary elections， the far-right Reform Party won 14.3% of the votes and became the third largest party in the UK. The Portuguese far-right party Enough won 48 seats in the parliamentary elections， ranking third in the parliament. The Belgian far-right party Flemish"Interest jumped to the second largest party in the Federal Parliament in the “three-in-one” election. The Austrian far-right Austria’s Freedom Party became the largest party in parliament with 29% of the votes. Romania’s three far-right parties have performed strongly in recent elections and opinion polls. In addition， right-wing party leaders such as Milè and Bukele won elections in Argentina and El Salvador respectively. Gallup polls show that conservative thought in the United States has risen to its highest level in 10 years; European think tank reports show that about 40% of people in Germany， Italy， France， Britain and other countries consider themselves right-wing. At present， the power and scale of right-wing populism are still on the rise globally， and the position and role of far-right parties in the world’s landscape of party politics will further enhance.

“Re-ideologization” Accelerates the Change of Social Thoughts

Globally， some political parties have once again raised the banner of ideology and used actively created conflicts and confrontations to win more support. The world’s party politics is showing a trend of “re-ideologization”. Specifically， some political parties have highlighted their own “underlying colors” of left and right， and have stirred up populism， xenophobia and identity politics. The gap in values between the left and the right has further widened， and the ideological polarization of “the left is more left， and the right is more right” has been obvious. From the perspective of social groups， the positions of the two sides on issues such as immigration， abortion， sexual minorities， and climate change are drifting further and further apart， and the contradictions are becoming increasingly irreconcilable. Groups with traditional values support the existing order and values， and oppose foreign and emerging cultures such as immigrants and sexual minorities. They support the interests of their own country above all else， and advocate the implementation of trade protectionist policies. They support the survival of the fittest in the economic field， advocate efficiency first， and reduce government intervention in the free economy. The groups holding reform values advocate pluralistic values and protect sexual minorities， trust multilateral institutions such as the United Nations and the World Trade Organization and actively support free trade. They are concerned about climate change and oppose the extensive use of traditional energy， support the government’s policies such as using administrative means to narrow the gap between the rich and the poor and increase taxation on large enterprises.

Political polarization is most prominent in the United States， where the Republican and Democratic parties are at loggerheads over race， religion， climate change， abortion and other issues， exacerbating voters’ “either-or” identity conflicts. In the 2024 French legislative elections， the La France Insoumise （France Unbowed） Party touted a more distinct anti-capitalist tendency， emphasized the defense of French culture， and had strong xenophobic ideas. Argentine President Milè stated loudly that capitalism is more productive and its market is fairer， and called on the West “not to let socialism advance”. The Danish Red-Green Alliance， the Peru Libre and others attempted to promote and construct alternative economic and power models through redistribution and equal social culture. At the same time， this ideological confrontation spread to relations between countries. After the Venezuelan election， right-wing countries in the region， such as Argentina， Peru and Ecuador， collectively denied the victory of the left-wing Maduro， and broke off or suspended diplomatic exchanges with the Venezuelan government.

The Loss of Power of Some Traditional Major Parties Has Exacerbated the Fragmentation of Party Politics

It can be seen from the elections in 2024 that some traditional mainstream political parties did not perform as they expected， resulting in a large number of people casting “punitive” votes. This directly led to some senior political parties losing their governing position in some countries. They had to switch from long-term independent rule to multi-party coalition government. According to incomplete statistics， the ruling parties of 27 countries stepped down in 2024， and the political ecology was subversively reshaped. The ruling party of South Africa， the African National Congress， lost its parliamentary majority for the first time in 30 years， and the ruling coalition in France lost its parliamentary majority for the first time since 1997. The Portuguese Socialist Party， which had been in power for 8 consecutive years， and the British Conservative Party， which had been in power for 14 consecutive years， lost their ruling status in the election. In the 50th House of Representatives election in Japan， the ruling coalition composed of the Liberal Democratic Party and the Komeito Party only won 215 seats， falling below half of the seats in the House of Representatives. This is the worst election record since the Liberal Democratic Party returned to power in 2009. The Botswana Democratic Party lost power for the first time in 58 years. The Bharatiya Janata Party did not win more than half of the seats in the Lok Sabha election， marking its first tough victory in its 10 years in power.

The loss of power of the major parties has led to the decentralization of power and the fragmentation of party politics， which has promoted the further development of compromise politics， and multi-party coalitions with different propositions have become the norm. Although the current governments and political parties in France， Japan， India， South Africa and other countries retain the power to govern， they are forced to form coalition governments with other parties due to the loss of some key seats in the parliamentary elections. Due to the growth of the French National Rally （RN）， the National Assembly cannot produce an effective majority government. The Barnier government was forced to resign because it failed to survive a no-confidence motion. This is the first time that a French government has been overthrown by parliament since 1962. The three-party ruling coalition in Germany has broken up， and the ruling power has become a minority in the Bundestag. Italy has a three-party coalition government while the Czech Republic and Finland have formed a five-party coalition government. Belgium has formed a seven-party cabinet and Malaysia’s Hope Alliance， the National Front， and the Sarawak Party Alliance have overcome grievances and formed a coalition government. The fragmentation of the party politics has led to an increase in political transactions and interest substitutions， a decline in the coalition government’s ability to govern and a significant increase in political uncertainty.

Political Polarization Leads to a Surge in Extreme and Sudden Incidents

In order to come to power， some political parties have spared no effort to create and intensify conflicts. Political polarization has spawned more political violence and deepened party confrontation and political hatred. Since the beginning of 2024， Trump has suffered two assassination attempts， and political leaders such as Lee Jae-myung， leader of the Democratic Party of Korea， and Robert Fico， Prime Minister of the Slovak Republic， have been attacked. Many party leaders in Belgium， Poland， Hungary and other countries have received death threats during the election. The sharp confrontation between the ruling and opposition parties in the Republic of Korea has caused President Yoon Seok-yeol to take risks and engage in a “martial law farce” and stage a presidential impeachment drama. More than 30 candidates were assassinated during the Mexican general election， and voting was suspended in many municipalities due to violent harassment. The 2024 election was therefore called the “bloodiest election” in Mexican history. After Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina started her fifth term， the Awami League government quickly fell under the pressure of student protests， and Hasina herself was forced to go into exile in India.

At the same time， some countries have advanced or postponed elections due to war， inter-party political games， leadership changes and other factors， adding a lot of uncertainty. US President Biden unexpectedly withdrew from the 2024 presidential election due to pressure from within the party. The then British Prime Minister Sunak held an early election in a bid to reverse the decline in power. French President Macron held an early election hoping that the ruling party could regain the majority position. Iran’s 14th presidential election was forced to be held one year in advance due to the death of President Raisi in a plane crash. Ukraine’s presidential election originally scheduled for March was postponed due to the war. In October， Shigeru Ishiba， the new president of the Liberal Democratic Party， who was elected as the Prime Minister of Japan only 8 days ago， announced the dissolution of the House of Representatives and early elections， setting the fastest record of the dissolution of the House of Representatives by a Japanese Prime Minister since the end of World War II.

Artificial Intelligence Technology Is Driving Changes in Election Campaign Methods

In some national elections， generative artificial intelligence is being used in an unprecedented and groundbreaking way， and technological factors are becoming a new variable that affects the development of party politics. Collecting and mining voter data to the maximum extent， using intelligent algorithms to accurately mobilize voters， and guiding voter behavior to harvest votes have become the new formula for party competition. Some candidates have begun to use artificial intelligence tools to analyze voter preferences， write speeches， design social media images， etc. In some countries， artificial intelligence technology is used to create 1 recordings， pictures and videos， becoming an “accomplice” in smear， attack or manipulation.

In the United States， professional campaign teams of the Democratic and Republican parties use artificial intelligence to analyze voters’ thoughts and behavior patterns， use ultra-personalized political propaganda to cater voters’ preferences， and try to shape voters’ political judgments. The Pascal AI team serving Trump used ultra-personalized information methods such as directly sending tailored emails to targeted individual voters in swing states. During the critical voting period of the Indian general election， an AI-synthesized video of Modi dancing to Bengali pop music was played more than 10 million times online， adding fuel to Modi’s high popularity. In Indonesia， Prabowo’s campaign team used generative artificial intelligence to create a cute-version cartoon image， which was printed on billboards， sweatshirts and stickers across Indonesia， and was widely welcomed by Generation Z voters. How to make the best use of this emerging method while adhering to the rules， seeking benefits and avoiding harm will become a new question that more and more political parties must face and answer.

Geopolitics Has a More Prominent Impact on Domestic Politics

Generally speaking， voters in all countries give priority to domestic affairs， and are mainly concerned about traditional topics such as economy， employment， medical care， and environmental protection. International heated issues are unlikely to affect their voting preferences. However， in recent years， due to the increasing influence of social media such as TikTok and X， the public， especially young people， have paid unprecedented attention to international heated issues.

In many European and North American countries， political parties with right-leaning or conservative ideologies generally oppose the continued expansion of aid and support to Ukraine， while the attitudes of liberal groups towards the new round of Palestinian-Israeli conflict have diverged to some extent. Specifically， on the issue of Ukraine， Marine Le Pen， the former president of the French National Rally （RN）， severely criticized the EU’s sanctions against Russia and called on France to reduce its aid to Ukraine. Nigel Farage， the leader of the UK Reform， even bluntly stated that the conflict between Russia and Ukraine was caused by the eastward expansion of NATO and the EU. Some opposition parties in Austria， Germany and other countries also have reservations about aiding Ukraine， and the relevant position has won the support of some relatively conservative people. Many conservative forces in the United States are also skeptical about supporting Ukraine.

On the Palestinian-Israeli issue， more and more European and North American people have begun to pay attention to and understand the real situation of the Palestinian people. Anti-Israel sentiment continues to rise， and disagreement with their own countries’ policies has increased. Some young American and European liberals admit that they are more willing to support candidates who are sympathetic to Palestine and oppose the growing pro-Israel and pro-Jewish forces. Although the British Labour Party won an overwhelming victory in 2024， the few seats it lost were won by left-wing candidates who opposed the government’s support for Israel. Polls in the United States reflect serious differences among Democratic supporters， especially young liberals， and many people oppose the Biden administration’s approach to the Palestinian-Israeli issue. Some people believe that the Democratic Party in the United States has lost a lot of voter support because of the Biden administration’s policy stance on the Middle East issue. Many people in France have also criticized the France Unbowed’s leaders for their anti-Semitic tendencies because these leaders strongly oppose Israel’s behavior in the war. In general， the trend of “backflow” of international issues into domestic politics will continue. Different political parties will also use this coupling effect to strengthen their party’s policy propositions on international issues according to ideology and voters’ preference， so as to continuously expand their base and seek greater political influence.

The Long-tail Effect of the “Super Election Year” will Continue to Affect the Evolution of Party Politics around the World

The global “super election year” has ended， but the development and evolution of world party politics is still accelerating. While a series of important elections have reshaped the global political spectrum， they have also brought new impacts to the social thoughts， economic development， foreign policies and other fields of relevant countries. The long-tail effect of the “super election year” will continue to affect the evolution of world party politics.

First， ideological disputes will become more acute. Some political parties are actively domesticating international issues. Domestic politics and international and regional situations are intricately intertwined， and the danger of “re-ideologization” of international relations and bloc confrontation is increasing. Political parties in some countries have transformed the dispute over domestic development paths into a dispute over values， and the tendency to politicize and ideologize social， trade， scientific and cultural issues has intensified.

Second， party competition will be more disorderly. Some political parties lack effective responses to issues such as economic recession， class confrontation， and regional conflicts. In order to win elections， they have begun to take a different approach and shift their focus from “making a bigger cake” to “grabbing a limited cake”. Legitimate competition between political parties may gradually evolve into malicious attacks and judicial battles. The competition for governance capabilities may evolve into “view count politics”， where leading public opinion becomes selling anxiety and coordinating interests becomes creating and intensifying conflicts. A few countries and regions may fall into a vicious cycle where political polarization breeds political violence， and such violence in turn deepens party confrontation.

Third， the game between major powers will become more intense. As the downward pressure on the global economy continues， some countries are experiencing internal political polarization and social divisions， and governance reforms are difficult. The impulse to shift conflicts and crises abroad is increasing. In some countries， leaders with a strong populist style have won elections. The game between major powers will face more extreme and uncertain scenarios， and the possibility of “black swan” events in the field of international security has increased.

Fourth， the election mechanism model will become more alienated. In the era of artificial intelligence， elections are not only a competition between political parties’ policy propositions and the choice of voters’ free will， but may also become a contest between different parties and candidates in the field of data and algorithms. The center of the election may no longer be voters but data， and the competition is no longer over policy but algorithms. The real demands and wishes of voters are obscured by simple technical algorithms， and the effectiveness of the electoral political response and feedback mechanism will be greatly reduced.

Fifth， global governance cooperation will become more difficult. As populist parties continue to grow， the transformation of related propositions from slogans to governing strategies will bring certain difficulties to international cooperation. Most populist parties are accustomed to integrating populism， nationalism and protectionism， highlighting their own national interests and the demands of the people， and their policy propositions are often accompanied by racism and xenophobia. This may intensify differences and confrontations between countries and cause great difficulties for global governance and multilateral cooperation. Many populist parties have long been skeptical of international organizations and multilateral mechanisms， and even explicitly oppose international cooperation and multilateralism. This may further weaken the authority and effectiveness of some international organizations.

Yao Yibo is Researcher of the Institute of World Political Parties， International Department of the CPC Central Committee