Contemporary Global Security Landscape:Risks and Challenges to the Global South

Current analysis of the contemporary global security situation is incomplete if the issues of the Global South’s security interests particularly the Africa’s security needs and concerns are left out of the discussions. Today， the focuses are on the Middle East crises whose major players are Israel and the United States of America against Gaza and the larger Palestine including Lebanon， the Russia-Ukraine war and the perpetual geopolitical tensions between the North Korea and South Korea. Most of the deliberations and considerations of the great powers that mainly make up the Global North are focused on geopolitical competitions and their dominance over the Global South， including Africa， which is the least developed. The continent is at a critical juncture in terms of global security threats and challenges. Protracted wars， extreme poverty， hunger， diseases， illiteracy， and despondency remain critical challenges exacerbated by global geopolitical rivalries and the continent’s unequal relations with the outside world.

Despite the United Nations’ 1945 resolve when it was founded after the World War II to end conflict and violence， and most recently to ensure warring parties to ceasefire in Sudan， the protracted violence in the Democratic Republic of the Congo， and the Israeli-Hamas crises in Gaza， and many other regional crises are still being waged. Death， displacement and suffering have affected many populations， mostly women and children. The fear of use of nuclear weapons has never been heightened to this current level in human history. According to the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development （UNCTAD）， the circumstances of colonial history， economy and politics that have often characterised most of the Global South countries are responsible for their limited， though differing levels of wealth， income inequality， strength of democracy， and industrial and educational opportunities.

The questions at the bottom line at this moment of global security conundrum and apprehension are： What does the term Global South mean in international politics and diplomacy？ What is the current security landscape in the world？ How does this security situation affect the Global South， particularly Africa in terms of risks and threats？ What can be done to address these concerns？ But before attempting some answers， it is important to describe what Global South means and which regions are comprised of the Global South.

The Notion of Global South

As it is being used in geopolitical realm， “the Global South” refers to many of the countries that are in the Southern Hemisphere， largely in Africa， Asia and Latin America， though countries in the Northern Hemisphere like China and India are also part of the Global South. According to Jorge Heine in the Conversation， “the term appears to have been first used in 1969 by political activist Carl Oglesby…” “…to describe centuries of northern dominance over the Global South to produce an intolerable social order.” But the term gained momentum after the 1991 breakup of the Soviet Union， what is commonly used for developing countries that are yet to industrialize fully as “Third World”， which made the pillar of the Non-Aligned Movement in 1961.

But going by the historical descriptions in which the rest of the world besides the developed countries have gone through， terms such as “Third World”， “underdeveloped countries”， and “developing countries” have been replaced by terms like the Global South in which the UNCTAD， China， and others are championing under the multilateral frameworks of cooperation and development initiatives. Interestingly， many of these terms metamorphosed in meaning during the Cold War into a bipolar alignment between the West Bloc led by the United States and the East Bloc led by the Soviet Union.

The terms generally describe regions or peoples plagued by poverty， diseases， and instability. For instance， the Western media and academic literature used the terms up to the 1990s globalization to mean the lowest-cadre of peoples or races in the world， while the developed or First and Second World were portrayed as advanced. Wars， violence and displacement have been some of the features of the developing countries that are now being described as the Global South.

One might have thought that geography played a role in designating the Global South. But， as pointed out earlier， countries like China and India in the Northern Hemisphere are also members of the Global South. Commonalities or dynamics in politics， geopolitics and economy are a few of the things that unite the countries of the Global South. Nevertheless， the Global South has become a widely used expression in international politics and diplomacy particularly among those countries with a common position on global issues.

According to Heine， the Global South countries are “mostly at the receiving end of imperialism and colonial rule， with African countries as perhaps the most visible example of this.” Global governance is skewed against those countries， as none of the African countries are UN Security Council members. Despite what the term was meant to sound compared to the offensive Third World or developing countries， the global order is twisted against most of the countries in the Global South. Besides economic dependence on the West or the Global North since most part of modern history， the countries in the Global South have been at the receiving end of geopolitical rivalries， wars and adverse effects of technology that are primarily originated in the Global North. While the Global North is characterized by massive wealth， democratic governance， peace and stability and constantly prone to human progress， the Global South appears to be a zone of turmoil， war， conflict， poverty， anarchy and tyranny. Perhaps， Africa has been the region mostly suffering from such rivalries and competitions that have resulted in wars， conflict and instability. Also， some that are instigated by the ex-colonial powers have crippled the continent’s growth and development since the independence in the 1960s.

Global Security Environment and Effect on Global South

The situation of the world at the moment is seemingly peaceful but precarious. Though it is not in a world war period， the ongoing three year old Russia-Ukraine war has not shown any sign of abating. It is a war instigated and fueled by the Global North led by the United States. The India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi， while hosting the Voice of the Global South summits in 2023 asserted in an argument， “most of the global challenges have not been created by the Global South. But they affect us more.” For instance， the United States and allies are still supplying arms to Ukrainian army and Russia is receiving troops from North Korea and arms from Iran. The risk of use of nuclear weapons is still dangling as several thousand people have been killed and millions displaced across Europe and Asia.

Another war being fought and worsened by countries of the Global North is the ongoing Israeli-Palestine war that has escalated into Lebanon， Iran， Yemen and Syria. The hostages taken by Hamas on October 7， 2023 are still being held in Gaza. Several ceasefire， humanitarian and diplomatic initiatives by the United Nations， Qatar， Egypt and others in the international community to resolve the conflict and provide emergency services have not yielded desired result. Another of the conflict’s spiraling effects is the rising anti-Semitism around the world. Amid continuing bombardment of Gaza， South Africa， a prominent member of the Global South， took Israel to the International Court of Justice in 2023 for genocide against Palestinians and humanitarian crisis regarding Israel’s conduct in the Gaza Strip.

But the Courts’ decision ordering Israel to take all measures to prevent acts within the scope of Article II of the Genocide Convention and take urgent measures to enable the provision of needed basic services and humanitarian assistance to address the adverse effects of the war have not been heeded. Israel’s occupation and annexation of the Palestinian territories are unlawful. Today， the belligerent situations have not changed.

Furthermore， among today’s most significant global security risks and challenges are a variety of transnational threats from weapons proliferation， cyber attacks， ethnic violence， environmental degradation， the spread of infectious diseases， and those who are bent to acquire weapons of mass destruction. There are also problems basically related to terrorism， geopolitical rivalries， populism and isolationism associated with advanced countries of the Global North. These security challenges have exerted enormous pressure on governance and democracy in the Global South as many countries are still reeling from the long-lasting experience of the COVID-19 pandemic， food insecurity， organized crimes and violence， which are coupled with lukewarm international responses of the Global North to climate change， and continue to unleash adverse effects on common people of the Global South.

From Louisa Brooke-Holland’s insight in the UK Parliament’s Common Library， the divisions this global order has created can be seen in the divisions within and frustrations with the existing multilateral system. Views of the Global South have not been heard and their interests not adequately reflected in international agreements or multilateral forums. Again， the Global South is dependent on and vulnerable to the Global North.

The responses of international community to climate change， the COVID-19 pandemic， the conflict in Ukraine， the protracted Palestine-Israel wars， the Middle East crises， and challenges of food and energy security have instilled more fear and despondence among the countries of the Global South. As hegemonic forces of the Global North have threatened the autonomy and development of the Global South， the results have been disastrous for most of the countries. Once the world is tensioned， it often poses major challenges and indeed dangers. The destabilizing politics of the post-Cold War and globalization are a few examples that multilateral institutions have not carried majority of the Global South along in decision making. According to Brooke-Holland， these countries feel that their views have not been heard fully or their interests not adequately reflected in the multilateral system like the United Nations Security Council and international financial institutions.

Hence， because of the close correlation the Global South has with geopolitics， it has been at the receiving end of the wars and protracted geopolitical conflicts among the countries of the Global North or the advanced Western countries. As predicted by the Global South Studies Center， Cologne， in 2016， apart from China， India and Brazil， about 80% of the world’s middle-class population will be living in developing countries by 2030. As also pointed out by the Global South Unit of the London School of Economics， the Global South is often faced with geopolitical uncertainty.

Growing Security Concerns of Africa

The risks and challenges of a large-scale global war for Africa cannot be overstated. For instance， Africans cannot forget in a hurry their predicaments during the most devastating conflicts in African history， the World Wars I and II， when they contributed more than four million soldiers and military labourers to advance European interests. About two million likely died. Because of the continent’s link to the industrial economies of the developed nations， African colonies’ interests were “invariably subordinated to European imperial imperatives”. Though Africa was untouched by the wars， it suffered the destructive consequences， including human losses and physical devastations.

In the contemporary time， the ongoing protracted wars in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and the widespread terrorism and insurgencies in the Sahel， northern Nigeria and Mozambique bear some evidence of the risks and threats that the least-developed region of the Global South is facing. First， the neglect of the international community always dominated by the Global North has prevented a concerted global community from intervening in the crises， but instead concentrated efforts supporting Ukraine against Russia. Unfortunately， some external forces， mainly from the Global North， are sponsoring each side in the forgotten wars in Sudan， Congo， and the recently simmered Libya crisis. As at the time of writing this report， the humanitarian situation in Sudan has reached catastrophic levels as over 12 million people are displaced from their homes.

Second， the geopolitical and economic interests of the advanced countries in exploiting the resources of the continent seem to have blinded them from seeing problems in the continent’s development. This has posed serious challenges to individual African governments and multilateral cooperation to achieve their development and security goals. For example， only a very few countries are on the path to achieve the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals （SDGs） by 2030.

Recently， the geopolitical influence of the United States and France has challenged West African cooperation and integration， and thereby creating fears of the collapse of socio-economic cohesion and unity in some parts of Africa. For example， the Western powers presence in the Sahelian states of Mali， Burkina Faso and Niger has created suspicion and indeed division among the Economic Community of West African States （ECOWAS） when the trio were suspended from the community due to military coups that deposed democratically elected governments. The trio and Chad in Central Africa have provided military bases for the United States and France where they said that they were to fight terrorists in the region. But several years of fighting the terrorists have not resulted in stability and security in the region.

Instead， one would have thought that their presence in the region was to checkmate the growing influence of China and Russia while also exploiting mineral resources of the region. Cobalt， tantalum， lithium， gold， diamond， copper， coltan and uranium are some of the rare minerals being mined in Africa to produce cell phones， batteries， bombs， missiles and nuclear weapons. In its place， poverty， illiteracy， diseases and violence have not been eradicated as pledged by the United Nations and the Western powers. Similarly， the historical neighbourliness of Nigeria and Niger got soured as President Bola Ahmed Tinubu， the Chairman of the ECOWAS Heads of State and Government， rejected the overthrow of the democratically elected President of Niger in 2023. Ever since， the junta has carried out campaigns of calumny against Nigeria， alleging it supports France to provide an alternative military presence in Nigeria that might threaten its security and sovereignty. Already， the Nigerian Presidency has claimed that the military leader of Niger， Abdourahamane Tchiani was colluding with France to destabilise his country and “designed to create bad blood between Northern Nigeria and President Bola Tinubu”.

In other words， since the core countries of the Global North like Britain， France， Italy， Spain， Portugal， and Belgium colonized many of the countries in the Global South， the geopolitical tensions and rivalries among the former often affected the countries in the south. Since the entrance of the United States and Russia during the Cold War， Africa has been the battleground of geopolitical rivalries. It suffices to describe the relationship in an African adage， as “when two elephants fight， the grass or the earth suffers.” But this time， the elephants are many and overwhelming in their influence on the social， economic and political decisions of the people of the continent. Most of the regions or countries in Africa where wars， violence and tensions are taking place， as mentioned earlier， are strongholds or epicentres of the politics of the advanced powers.

In addition， whenever major wars or political crises erupt in any part of the world， Africa is the most affected. It is vulnerable to global risks， challenges and uncertainties. Food insecurity， poor healthcare， weapon proliferation， drug trafficking， import and export decline due to disruptions in global supply chains are some of the areas where the peoples of the continent suffer most. For example， the Russia-Ukraine war led to a stoppage in the supply of grain and fertilizers to the needed regions of Africa.

Regarding environmental security， Africa has been at loggerheads with the Global North over compensation for the latter’s use of fossil fuels that has exacerbated the effects of climate change. Disputes between the governments of both divides are worsening conflict， migration and development issues in the continent. The Global North is the most industrialized region of the world and therefore has contributed the most to carbon emissions， which constituted a hindrance to the actualization of some of the earth’s fundamental needs. In other words， a planetary ecological emergency is testing the rules-based international order and complicating collective response to shared threats.

Nonetheless， the uncertainties， risks and challenges existing in the global security scenario will continue to be unfolded as the continent marches into the digital future. Already the Artificial Intelligence and the dangers it presents， such as cyber crimes and hacking of public and private documents， are what Africa will have to confront head-on.

Addressing the Risks and Challenges

Most of the security challenges emanating from the global security situations around the world can be mitigated or prevented with cooperation of the Global South. That is to say， the core causes of vulnerability of African nations to political， economic and ecological crises are not of their own making. But when the continent fosters more unity and cooperation especially through the African Union and regional integration blocs， and strengthens alliances with other Global South countries， they will wean themselves from dependency burdens and overcome most of the risks and challenges to their growth and development. Fortunately， hope is on the horizon as the degree of solidarity among the Global South is rising.

Another key step is the inclusion of the Global South in the UN Security Council where their quest to play an active role in global security governance will be realized. Their voice and vote will count in the decisions that will support their aspirations for a secure and just world. The ideological conflict that often tainted the Council during voting will be minimized with the presence of diversity which the Global South will bring. The Global South should take advantage of its international South South Cooperation to unleash their potential and focus on development that will be able to insulate the countries from effects of international wars， violence and organized crimes.

The Global South should be more assertive than it is currently doing on international politics and diplomacy. Though it is currently not a formal bloc because it does not have a central agreement or an organizing secretariat， countries in the aforementioned regions should begin to play an active role in sharing their priorities and experiences. China and India， which are championing the interests of the Global South， should deepen their advocacy for Africa at the international platforms. This is the time for African governance to be strengthened and its diplomacy to be broader and robust to manage foreign influence and geopolitics. The geopolitical questions of world order should be directed at answering initiatives that will deliver a more peaceful， prosperous， just and sustainable world. Also， Nigeria and South Africa should continue to strengthen their voice for the Global South to build a community with a shared future for their people.

Joseph Ochogwu is Director General， Institute for Peace and Conflict Resolution， Ministry of Foreign Affairs， Nigeria