The 2024 Global Security Dynamics:Rising Risks of Instability and Growing Demand for Governance

In 2024， as the world underwent profound political changes， global security faced increasing instabilities and uncertainties. Traditional and non-traditional security threats interacted and overlapped， and the risk of turmoil increased. Strategic trust among major powers continued to erode， leading to heightened insecurity and intensified competition. Regional conflicts persisted， with some at risk of spiraling out of control. Despite this， global strategic stability can still be maintained， as peace， stability and development remain the common goals of most nations and their people. The call for global security governance is growing louder.

Security and Governance Deficits Grew amid Deepened Global Changes

The world is witnessing more chaos in political transformations， leading to greater security risks. Global development remains uneven， becoming a key source of instability. In December 2024， the UK International Institute for Strategic Studies released its Annual Survey of Armed Conflicts. By analyzing global conflicts from 1 July 2023 to 30 June 2024， the report revealed over 200，000 deaths in armed conflicts， a 37% increase from the previous year， with the Middle East and North Africa seeing a 315% rise in fatalities. The ongoing Israel-Palestine conflict and Israel’s restrictions on humanitarian aid have caused an unprecedented crisis， displacing 90% of Gaza’s population and leaving 340，000 in dire conditions.

Outdated logic of hegemony， power politics， zero-sum games， and Cold War thinking persisted， undermining trust and escalating tensions. Regional conflicts and wars broke out more than before. Some nations strengthened exclusive military alliances and pursued absolute security at the expense of global stability. Global arms control and disarmament faced setbacks， and the arms race ramped up its pace. The proliferation risk of weapons of mass destruction grew. The global non-proliferation regime faced challenges. Terrorism and extremism threats remained unchecked， while emerging areas such as cyberspace， outer space， deep sea and biotechnology became ever more important. The competition over rule-making intensified.

In this era of changes and turbulence， old security issues remain unresolved and new ones keep popping out， worsening security and governance deficits. In September 2024， UN Secretary-General António Guterres warned during the 79th UN General Assembly that， “our world is in a whirlwind. We are in an era of epic transformation -- facing challenges unlike any we have ever seen -- challenges that demand global solutions. Yet geo-political divisions keep deepening. The planet keeps heating. Wars rage with no clue how they will end. And nuclear posturing and new weapons cast a dark shadow. We are edging towards the unimaginable -- a powder keg that risks engulfing the world.” He also pointed out that， “the differences and"divisions today"are just"too great. That it is impossible for us to"come together for the common good.” “We are in a purgatory of polarity. And in this purgatory， more and more countries are filling the spaces of geopolitical divides， doing whatever they want with no accountability.”

The Ukraine crisis， now in its third year， has reached a stalemate. Russia and Ukraine are locked in a war of attrition， with neither side gaining a decisive advantage. It hinges on the international community to create conditions for peace talks. China’s stance on the crisis represents where the future shall go： the international community should support all efforts aimed at resolving the Ukraine crisis in a peaceful way， oppose the use or the threat of use of nuclear weapons， work to ensure the stability of global industrial and supply chains; and cooperate to improve the humanitarian situation and prevent a potentially larger-scale humanitarian crisis.

From the evolution of the Ukraine crisis， one can clearly see that the marginal effects that could potentially be gained for relevant parties， including the U.S.， have diminished greatly. Yet， if one reads the crisis in the context of its motives and impacts， its political takeaway becomes ever clearer： the traditional geopolitical rivalry is greatly limited in its role in addressing geopolitical issues of today. Historically， Europe’s geopolitical boundaries have been pushed back and forth like an accordion， but today， NATO’s eastward expansion cannot subdue Russia， and Russia’s special military operation also met with strong countermeasures from the West. The stalemate in the Ukraine crisis further showed that only by transcending the traditional geopolitical thinking and adhering to the spirit of dialogue and consultation can relevant parties find effective ways out.

The changes in the international system can often be mirrored by one crisis or event. On that note， the impact of the Ukraine crisis weighs more than that of the Kosovo War， the Iraq War， or even the Afghanistan War. There is a lot to be learned from both history and reality. The September 11 terrorist attacks revealed， in an extreme way， the intrinsic problems in international politics， indicating that the old system could no longer provide the necessary conditions and guarantees for global development and security. The subprime mortgage crisis demonstrated that when capital expansion reached its limit and financial products were recklessly introduced， the overstretched financial chain would inevitably break. Similarly， Donald Trump’s return to the White House reflects the severe economic structural imbalances and socio-political divisions in the U.S.， signaling the decline of liberal capitalism and a shift toward conservatism in its domestic and foreign policies. It also means that the political and economic dividends gained from the end of the Cold War have been exhausted.

As is revealed， regional turmoil does not happen by accident， rather， it is an inevitable reflection of the world’s political development at some specific stage. The changes in world today are， in essence， brought by the transformation in the international system. When the logic of geopolitics， capital expansion， and power politics that underpins the system reaches its limits， the old order ceases to be effective， or even be severely challenged. The US tries its best to maintain its hegemony on one hand and is dismantling more and more of the institutional arrangements it once dominated on the other， some of which were even weaponized to handicap other countries. The international system is now overloaded and must undergo necessary reforms to adapt to the future. This transformation may take long， or even faces setbacks. The transition between the old and new order， at this stage， manifests as increased tensions and conflicts， with some countries resorting to outdated power politics and geopolitical competition to address complex security challenges. Such behavior will not only harm others but also endanger themselves， and gives rise to a broader sense of pessimism and insecurity about the future. Today， more and more people fear the danger of nuclear war and the possibility of a third World War.

Security disorder and governance failure have become acute challenges today. To build a new type of international relations featuring mutual respect， fairness， justice and win-win cooperation is a must to strengthen security governance， and democratization in international relations is a natural outcome of changes in the international system and diversified development of power structure. In a turbulent world， countries have never been more anxious about the future destiny of mankind， and never been more desirous of world peace and development. The international community is calling for greater solidarity and cooperation to pursue a better and predictable future on the basis of openness and inclusiveness. It is in this context that Global South countries， as the absolute majority of the international community， have become ever more active on the global stage and have become a key force in promoting the reform of the international order and the democratization of international relations.

The Increased Geopolitical Conflicts at Risk of Spiraling Out of Control

The October 2023 Gaza conflict that rages on to this day has plunged the Middle East into turmoil， with tensions between Israel and Palestine， Lebanon and Israel， Iran and Israel， and in the Red Sea region rising without respite. For a long time， the Middle East has been a hotbed of intractable issues such as territorial disputes， ethnic conflicts， and religious strife， compounded by the intervention of major powers， gradually turning the region into a casualty of geopolitical rivalry. The swift collapse of the Assad regime in Syria within a mere 11 days has further cast a shadow over the region. Syria is host to troops from Iran， Russia， the U.S.， Israel， Turkey， and others with complex relations among them. Internally， it is also riven by sectarian divisions， with the Alawites， a branch of Shia Islam， long supporting former President Assad， and the armed forces that captured Damascus belonging to the Sunni Islam. Additionally， the degradation of Syria’s state apparatus has left it unable to provide sufficient support for its military， severely weakening the strength of its armed forces and intelligence services. Syria’s geostrategic position is of paramount importance， and its future， be it descending into greater chaos and upheavals， or quelling turmoil， sidestepping the external geopolitical ambitions， and finding a path to national governance， will have a high stake not only for itself but also for the entire region.

The Middle East’s future depends on political solutions and dialogue. Violence begets no peace， and a cycle of retaliation has no end. The Middle East belongs to its people， and the fate of Middle Eastern countries should be in the hands of their own people. In fact， 2024 saw more regions such as Africa， South Asia， and Eastern Europe rising with tension， instability， and even conflict. Changes inside some countries can move the needle on geopolitical landscape. For instance， a political shift in Bangladesh led to the formation of an interim government with 17 advisors on 8 August 2024， which profoundly impacted its domestic politics and economy， and the geopolitical dynamics in its neighboring area as well as the entire South Asia.

The escalation of tension on the Korean Peninsula in 2024 was a focus of global attention as well. During Yoon Suk-yeol’s presidency in South Korea， efforts were intensified to strengthen its alliance with the U.S. and enhance trilateral relations with the U.S. and Japan. All policies from the Moon Jae-in administration aimed at easing tensions on the peninsula were abolished， military outposts at the front line near Panmunjom were reopened， and joint military exercises were frequently conducted in the border areas between North and South Korea. The enhanced cooperation between the U.S. and South Korea on extended deterrence and nuclear sharing further escalated tensions on the peninsula. On October 3， 9， and 10， South Korea used drones to infiltrate Pyongyang’s airspace， dispersing a large number of anti-North Korea leaflets. In response， on October 15， North Korea cut off all transportation links with South Korea by sealing off the railway and road connections in the border areas through demolition， closed the southern border， and constructed permanent fortress-like structures. On October 31， North Korea announced the test launch of a new type of intercontinental ballistic missile， to which the U.S. and South Korea reacted strongly. The rising risks on the peninsula do not serve the interests of any party， and the urgent task is to return to the path of dialogue and engagement to alleviate tensions and reduce hostility.

The Ukraine crisis continues to put a strain on European security. On 19 September 2024， the European Parliament approved a resolution allowing Ukraine to use Western weapons against Russian territory. The U.S. followed suit in November 18th， allowing Ukraine to use US weapons to strike deep in Russian territory. On November 19th， Ukraine fired several US-supplied ATACMS missiles into the Bryansk region of Russia， which was the first time Ukraine struck targets in Russia after the US lifted restrictions on its use of the missile. For Russia， the use of U.S. and NATO long-range missiles by Ukraine to strike Russian territory signified the direct involvement of the U.S. and its allies in the conflict and a significant change in the nature of the conflict. Therefore， Russia believed it necessary to make an appropriate and perceptible response. In November， Putin formally approved the Basic Principles of State Policy of the Russian Federation on Nuclear Deterrence， explicitly emphasizing that ensuring the deterrence of potential enemies and preventing their aggression against Russia and its allies is one of the highest national priorities. Putin pointed out that Russia’s full military strength， including nuclear weapons， must be used to ensure the deterrence of aggression.

Amid frequent local conflicts and the danger of losing control， there were also positive efforts that yielded results， with the escalation of the cycle of violence facing increasing criticism and opposition. As the challenges facing world peace and security continued to grow， peace diplomacy remained at the heart of the UN’s work， as emphasized by UN Secretary-General António Guterres， “to take multilateral action to address the intertwined threats we all face.” The Global Security Initiative proposed by China has already garnered support from 119 countries and international organizations.

China and India reached a resolution on China-India boundary question through diplomatic and military communication channels in October 2024. On December 18th， the 23rd meeting of Special Representatives for China-India Boundary Question was held in Beijing， where substantive discussions on the question took place and important consensus was reached. This included reaffirming the need to properly handle border issues in the context of the overall bilateral relations to ensure that they would not affect the development of bilateral ties. Both sides agreed to continue taking measures to maintain peace and tranquility in the border areas， and promote the sound and stable development of bilateral relations. Both reaffirmed their commitment to continuing to seek a fair， reasonable and mutually acceptable package solution to the border issue and taking measures to advance this process. Progress has also been made in China-Japan relations recently. Since Shigeru Ishiba government took office， Japan’s policy towards China has shown adjustments， leading to new momentum of development in the bilateral relations.

In recent years， the U.S. has been constructing and strengthening its network of alliances and partnerships in the Indo-Pacific and using it as an important tool for geopolitical rivalry. However， the dispersion of power brought about by global changes has sent shocks across the narrow bonds of these alliances. A more diverse world faces increasingly complex security situations， and there are no simple solutions to effectively address both old problems and new challenges. In terms of cyberspace， the U.S. policy of securitizing cyberspace issues has also reduced the systemic effects of cyberspace alliances， with some countries experiencing a decline rather than a boost in collective action capabilities after joining these alliances. Even U.S. allies have their own interests and needs， and fully aligning with the U.S. does not necessarily bring them much benefit. The U.S. seeks to limit its rivals while also demanding greater responsibility from its allies. As differences in interests widen， goals inevitably tend to diverge. The Biden administration has made numerous attempts to repair the damaged transatlantic partnership， but it is not easy for a complete turnaround under its current domestic political ecosystem. With Trump’s comeback， the conservatism and unilateralism he represents enjoys a broad social foundation across various levels of American society. It should be recognized that a narrow alliance system cannot solve today’s security dilemmas， and the security of any country is ever more unlikely to be achieved at the expense of others. In this changing world， major powers should be more ready to shoulder responsibilities. Without basic coordination and cooperation among them， world politics will become even more perilous.

Rapid Evolution of Warfare Driven by Breakthroughs in the New Round of Technological Revolution

Science and technology is a significant variable in driving the evolution of the world landscape. Some countries are vigorously pushing for major technological breakthroughs， attempting to turn them into competitive edges， or even directly applying them to geopolitical games and conflicts. Propelled by the new wave of technological revolution and industrial restructuring， cutting-edge technologies such as artificial intelligence， big data and quantum information are rapidly applied in military and security operations. The focus of military competition is shifting， with military high-tech represented by intelligent and information technologies developing swiftly. The trend towards precision， intelligence， stealth， unmanned systems and long-range capabilities in weaponry is becoming increasingly evident， making the warfare more information-based and intelligent.

Emerging defense technologies are set to make big progress across many domains， including multimodal artificial intelligence， drone swarm， hypersonic weapons， space domain awareness， high-density energy storage and quantum cryptography. In the current wave of AI development and innovation， multimodal large models are achieving significant breakthroughs in a “singularity innovation” manner that will have a profound impact on the future global political and economic landscape. Building on the technological innovation of general large models， general artificial intelligence is expected to achieve major breakthroughs in a relatively short time， bringing about transformations based on new quality productive force and corresponding changes in production relations. The swift application of AI technology in armed conflicts is bound to profoundly influence battlefield dynamics and even the nature of warfare.

It is noteworthy that emerging technologies are not exclusively held by state actors. Non-state actors may also acquire advanced technologies or weapons. New forms of warfare such as terrorist attacks， cyber offense and defense， and economic blockades do not necessarily occur between nations. In recent years， some non-state military forces in the Middle East have become more active， such as the Houthi forces in Yemen， which have used unmanned surface vessels to launch several attacks in the Red Sea against ships from various countries. In today’s local conflicts， the use of hybrid methods is increasingly evident， including information warfare， public opinion warfare， psychological warfare， cognitive warfare， technological warfare and economic warfare. They are often intertwined with military strikes， making the nature of warfare more complex.

In October 2024， the U.S. Army planned to acquire the K1000 ultra long-endurance solar-powered unmanned aerial vehicle （UAV） for reconnaissance and surveillance missions in the Indo-Pacific. This UAV features easy deployment， long endurance， low detectability， and minimal logistical requirements， providing the U.S. military with cost-effective capabilities in surveillance， communication， and electronic warfare. Russia is also advancing its national UAV program， aiming to establish 48 research and production centers for UAV systems by 2030， focusing on their design， testing， and mass production. Through this national project， Russia aims to foster the development of key technologies， including system integration， energy and propulsion， navigation and positioning， communication， perception and recognition， new materials and processes， photonic integration， swarm interaction and control technologies.

With the rapid advance of military technology， long-range strike weapons are being frequently used in global conflicts. Missiles， drones and other long-range strike methods demonstrate remarkable flexibility and precision. Over the past year， some countries have made significant progress in the development and deployment of hypersonic missiles. On 21 November 2024， Russia announced the successful test launch of its latest “Hazel” medium-range missile， which was also used on ground combat， hitting an industrial complex in Dnipropetrovsk， Ukraine. It was reported that Hazel can strike targets at speeds of up to Mach 10， and there is no missile defense system capable of intercepting it so far. On 12 December， the U.S. military successfully tested the “Dark Eagle” hypersonic missile. Its launch vehicle was modified from the U.S. military’s M870 trailer， each capable of carrying up to two missiles. The Dark Eagle has a range of 1，725 miles and flies at a speed exceeding Mach 5， and can be used for both Navy and Air Force. Reports suggest that the U.S. military plans to deploy this new weapon in Japan by 2025 and in Germany by 2026， which will undoubtedly escalate tensions in the relevant regions.

In December 2024， the U.S. conducted its first ballistic missile interception test in Guam. The U.S. military has long regarded Guam as a strategic stronghold for maintaining its influence， deterring adversaries， and responding to crises. During the test， the Aegis combat system launched an interceptor missile， and destroyed an air-launched medium-range ballistic missile. While technological breakthroughs bring new hopes for global development， they are often used for military competition. Excessive competition cannot bring peace to any nation. Only by transcending zero-sum mentality and pursuing sustainable development and security through cooperative and common security， can international security be truly ensured.

Looking ahead to 2025， global politics will continue to evolve， the conditions that destabilize international security will persist， intense competition and conflict will rage on， and people in some countries and regions will still suffer. With that said， geopolitical rivalry， zero-sum games， winner-take-all approach， and hegemonism are increasingly becoming outdated and will eventually become a thing of the past. Faced with growing deficits in peace and security， the international community urgently needs to strengthen cooperation， make global governance more effective， and strive for a broadly participatory， more open， and inclusive multilateral security framework and order to provide basic guarantee for sustainable development and security. It is at this historical crossroads when the world faces profound changes and uncertainties that a broad strategic vision is cried for. We must see current difficulties as opportunities for adjustment and transformation， turning setbacks into advantages， and pushing forward to build a better world.

Tang Yongsheng is Professor and Major General at the National Security College of National Defense University