約束線方法改進的ITVDI在荊州市干旱評估中的應用

摘要 干旱是影響農業生產和區域可持續發展的重要因素。監測和分析干旱的時空變化特征及其驅動因素對于制定有效的應對措施具有重要意義。基于約束線方法對溫度植被干旱指數（ITVDI）進行了改進，利用2001—2020年MODIS NDVI和LST數據對荊州市的干旱進行了監測和分析。結果表明，荊州市的干旱強度呈現出波動變化，2015年后有所減輕。空間上，荊州市的干旱特征存在較大的異質性，西部和東部地區的干旱顯著增加，而市中心的干旱顯著減少。進一步識別和量化了人類活動（人口、GDP、土地利用類型）、氣候變化（降水、溫度）和地形（海拔、坡度）等因素對荊州市干旱強度的約束影響。結果顯示，這些因素對干旱強度存在8種約束效應類型，包括U型曲線、正線性、負線性、對數型、負凸型、正凸型、指數型和駝峰型。降水和溫度是影響干旱強度最直接的因素，其對干旱強度的上下邊界都有約束效應。海拔、坡度、GDP和人口對干旱強度的約束效應在尺度上穩定。值得注意的是，土地利用類型對干旱強度的約束效應呈U型，且最小值閾值出現在林地和水域覆蓋區域。該研究為緩解區域干旱和促進區域可持續發展提供了科學決策支持，最后展望了未來的研究方向和需求。

關鍵詞 干旱；溫度；植被干旱指數；約束線方法；荊州市

中圖分類號 S127 文獻標識碼 A 文章編號 0517-6611（2024）19-0227-05

doi：10.3969/j.issn.0517-6611.2024.19.046

開放科學（資源服務）標識碼（OSID）：

Application of ITVDI Improved by Constraint Line Method to Drought Assessment in Jingzhou City

DU Zi-chan，ZHANG Jia

（School of Economics and Management，Yangtze University，Jingzhou，Hubei 434023）

Abstract Drought is an important factor affecting agricultural production and regional sustainable development. Monitoring and analyzing the temporal and spatial characteristics of drought and its driving factors were of great significance for formulating effective response measures. The temperature vegetation drought index （ITVDI） was improved based on the constraint line method，and the MODIS NDVI and LST data from 2001 to 2020 were used to monitor and analyze the drought in Jingzhou City. The results showed that the drought intensity in Jingzhou City had fluctuated and decreased after 2015. Spatial heterogeneity existed in the drought characteristics of Jingzhou City. The drought in the western and eastern areas increased significantly，while the drought in the downtown area decreased significantly. We further identified and quantified the constrained effects of human activities （population，GDP，land use type），climate change （precipitation，temperature） and topography （elevation，slope） on drought intensity in Jingzhou City. It was found that these factors had eight constraint effects on drought intensity，including U-shaped curve，positive linear，negative linear，logarithmic，negative convex，positive convex，exponential and hump type. Precipitation and temperature were the most direct factors affecting drought intensity，and they had a constraint effect on the upper and lower boundaries of drought intensity. The constraint effected of altitude，slope，GDP and population on drought intensity were stable in scale. It was worth noting that the constraint effect of land use type on drought intensity was U-shaped，and the minimum threshold value appeared in the area covered by forest land and water. We provided scientific decision support for alleviating regional drought and promoting regional sustainable development，so as to look forward to future research directions and needs.

Key words Drought;Temperature;Vegetation drought index;Constraint line method;Jingzhou City

作者簡介 杜子嬋（1994—），女，湖北松滋人，碩士研究生，研究方向：農業可持續發展。*通信作者，教授，博士，從事農業可持續發展研究。……