全球氣候變化下西南喀斯特地區(qū)氣候與水文系統(tǒng)的綜合響應研究

摘要 以貴州為例，分析了1978—2021年貴州的年平均溫度、降水、濕度、日照時數(shù)、地表水資源、地下水資源、河流輸沙量等要素與氣候變化的響應，并構(gòu)建氣候變化綜合評價指數(shù)進行綜合響應評價。結(jié)果表明：全球氣候變暖與貴州氣溫變化相關(guān)性顯著，而與年平均相對濕度、地表水資源量、地下水資源量和河流輸沙量變化相關(guān)性比較微弱；隨著全球氣候變暖，貴州氣溫呈波動式的增加趨勢，降水量也呈增加趨勢，而貴州全省年日照時數(shù)、相對濕度、地表水資源量、地下水資源量和河流輸沙量呈減少態(tài)勢；綜合響應總體呈增加趨勢；貴州氣候與水文系統(tǒng)中各要素總體變化幅度相對較小；在研究時段，氣溫、降水量、相對濕度、河流輸沙量均為負偏態(tài)分布，表明平均量偏多的年份比偏少的年份出現(xiàn)的概率大；而地表水資源量、地下水資源量、日照時數(shù)為正偏態(tài)分布，表明平均量偏多的年份比偏少的年份出現(xiàn)的概率小。

關(guān)鍵詞 氣候與水文系統(tǒng)；綜合響應；氣候變化；西南喀斯特地區(qū)；貴州省

中圖分類號 S162 文獻標識碼 A 文章編號 0517-6611（2024）19-0195-05

doi：10.3969/j.issn.0517-6611.2024.19.041HuLu8XJEn8y/gR8S9l7PiqMksnFXg1Dtt//is7QwO54=

開放科學（資源服務）標識碼（OSID）：

Comprehensive Response Study of Climate and Hydrological System in Southwest Karst Region Under Global Climate Change—A Case Study of Guizhou Province

YANG Ting-feng，LU Xian-mei，XIAO Dong-dong et al

（Kaili University，Kaili，Guizhou 556011）

Abstract Taking Guizhou as an example，this study analyzed the response of factors such as annual average temperature，precipitation，humidity，sunshine duration，surface water resources，groundwater resources and river sediment transport to climate change from 1978 to 2021，and constructed a comprehensive climate change evaluation index for comprehensive response evaluation.The results showed that there was a significant correlation between global climate warming and temperature changes in Guizhou，while the correlation with changes in annual average relative humidity，surface water resources，groundwater resources and river sediment transport was relatively weak.With global warming，the temperature in Guizhou showed a fluctuating increasing trend，and precipitation also showed an increasing trend. However，the annual sunshine hours，relative humidity，surface water resources，groundwater resources and river sediment transport in Guizhou Province showed a decreasing trend.The overall response showed an increasing trend.The overall variation amplitude of various elements in the climate and hydrological system of Guizhou was relatively small.During the research period，temperature，precipitation，relative humidity and river sediment transport were all negatively skewed，indicating that years with higher than average rainfall had a greater chance of occurrence than years with lower than average rainfall;the distribution of surface water resources，groundwater resources and sunshine duration was positively skewed，indicating that years with more than average water resources had fewer opportunities to appear than years with less than average water resources.

Key words Climate and hydrological system;Overall response;Climate change;Southwest Karst Region;Guizhou Province

基金項目 貴州省教學內(nèi)容和課程體系改革項目（SJG2022316）。

作者簡介 楊廷鋒（1972—），男，貴州黃平人，教授，碩士，從事資源開發(fā)與環(huán)境影響評價研究。

收稿日期 2023-10-28

氣候變化已成為當今普遍關(guān)注的環(huán)境問題之一^［1］。國內(nèi)外學者們開展氣候變化影響方面的研究^［2-4］。有少數(shù)的學者對西南地區(qū)氣候變化的響應開展了研究^［5-10］，也有少數(shù)學者對貴州的氣候變化特征進行分析^［11-14］，但是對該地區(qū)近40多年來氣候與水文系統(tǒng)的綜合響應研究鮮見相關(guān)報道。……