耕地輪作休耕政策對糧食綠色生產的促進作用

摘要 基于中國耕地輪作休耕制度試點為準自然實驗，根據2000—2019年中國省際面板數據，運用雙重差分（DID）、非期望的超效率-Malmquist生產指數（SBM－Malmquist）、系統廣義矩估計（SYS-GMM）方法，實證檢驗耕地輪作休耕對糧食綠色生產的影響效應。結果表明：中國糧食綠色生產以及促進糧食綠色生產的糧食綠色生產技術進步與糧食綠色生產技術效率均具有較大的提升空間；耕地輪作休耕制度試點顯著促進了糧食綠色生產，主要表現為糧食生產綠色技術效率的持續改善以推動糧食綠色全要素生產率的增長。從糧食綠色生產視角準確客觀評估耕地輪作休耕制度試點的政策績效，對于當前試點地區調整或完善耕地輪作休耕制度的政策舉措，推動耕地輪作休耕制度的常態化、制度化具有重要的政策蘊含，也為當前促進糧食綠色生產提供路徑參考。

關鍵詞 耕地輪作休耕；糧食綠色生產；糧食綠色全要素生產率；雙重差分法

中圖分類號 S344 文獻標識碼 A

文章編號 0517-6611（2024）18-0255-06

doi：10.3969/j.issn.0517-6611.2024.18.053

開放科學（資源服務）標識碼（OSID）：

The Promoting Effect of Farmland Rotation and Fallow Policy on Green Food Production—A Quasi-natural Experiment Based on the Pilot Program of Crop Rotation and Fallow System of Cultivated Land in China

XIAO Qing-yi1，HOU Jiao2，LIU Xi3 et al

（1.Hubei Provincial Institute of Spatial Planning，Wuhan，Hubei 430064;2.Wuhan Polytechnic University，Wuhan，Hubei 430048;3.Central Natural Resources Engineering Technology （Hubei） Co.，Ltd.，Wuhan，Hubei 430064）

Abstract Taking the pilot of crop rotation and fallow system of cultivated land in China as a quasi-natural experiment，the purpose of this paper is to test the effects of crop rotation and fallow on grain green production based on 2000-2019 provincial panel data in China.The undesirable super efficiency SBM model and Malmquist index was used to calculate the green total factor productivity of grain，and then the difference-in-differences model and system GMM estimation were used to test the impact of the pilot of crop rotation and fallow system on grain green production.The results indicated that：The grain green production in China has great potential for improvement，as well as the technical progress and technical efficiency of the green production of grain.The pilot of crop rotation and fallow system has significantly promoted the green production of grain，mainly in the form of the continuous improvement of the green technical efficiency of grain production to promote the growth of the total factor productivity.To accurately and objectively evaluate the policy performance of crop rotation fallow system pilot from the perspective of grain green production，has important policy implications for adjusting or improving the policy measures of the rotation fallow system in the current pilot areas，and promoting the normalization and institutionalization of the rotation fallow system，and it also provides the path reference for the transition of grain production to green development under the new situation of sufficient grain supply at home and abroad.

Key words Crop rotation and fallow;Grain green production;Green total factor productivity of grain;Difference-in-differences model

基金項目 國家自然科學基金青年項目（42101263）。

作者簡介 肖青奕（1993—），女，湖北棗莊人，工程師，碩士，從事地理信息及自然資源管理政策研究。 *通信作者，講師，博士，從事耕地保護與農業綠色發展研究。

收稿日期 2023-10-18；修回日期 2023-11-30

統籌兼顧糧食安全、資源節約與環境保護是當前全人類共同面臨的一個重要課題。近年來，中國糧食產量取得“十二連增”成就的同時，耕地資源長期高負荷運轉、糧食生產中化肥、農藥等過度使用也帶來了日趨嚴峻的糧食安全和生態環境安全問題。……