Evaluating the Effects of SARS-CoV-2 Spike Mutation D614G on Transmissibility and Pathogenicity

Erik Volz,Verity Hill,John T McCrone,et al.

Global dispersal and increasing frequency of the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein variant D614G are suggestive of a selective advantage but may also be due to a random founder effect.We investigate the hypothesis for positive selection of spike D614G in the United Kingdom using more than 25,000 whole genome SARS-CoV-2 sequences.Despite the availability of a large dataset,well represented by both spike 614 variants,not all approaches showed a conclusive signal of positive selection.Population genetic analysis indicates that 614G increases in frequency relative to 614D in a manner consistent with a selective advantage.We do not find any indication that patients infected with the spike 614G variant have higher COVID-19 mortality or clinical severity,but 614G is associated with higher viral load and younger age of patients.Significant differences in growth and size of 614G phylogenetic clusters indicate a need for continued study of this variant.