An Analysis of Population Migration and Economic Development in east China

Wangna Chenxiang

Abstract：Generally speaking， the disparity in economic development between regions is the main reason for population mobility， and a reasonable population structure is closely related to ensuring the sustainable growth of urban economy. Relevant studies show that cities with high economic development and large population are more likely to attract the inflow of foreign population. Based on the panel data of Shanghai from 1990 to 2017， this paper uses SPSS economic analysis software and regression analysis to obtain the functional relationship between floating population and Shanghais economic development， and constructs a dynamic panel data model of population flow on regional economic growth， thus obtaining the effects of net population inflow and net population outflow on economic growth.

Key words：population flow ; economic and social development; Shanghai;GDP

一、Introduction

The most obvious characteristics of China‘s economic development since the reforms is the fact that， driven by market forces ，economic resources have been redistributed and mobilized across the whole nation for the first time in chinas economic history. In concrete terms， this has taken the form of a transformation of the model of distribution of economic resources such as labors， capital etc. from a disapersed， rural-oriented type into a centralized， urban-oriented one.

Based on a state statistical bureau of statistical year book， this paper attempts to show an empirical analysis of Shanghais inter-regional migration. In concrete terms，it will include the distribution patterns and trends of migration within shanghai， ?and the characteristics of ?Shanghais inter-regional migration at shanghai and surrounding countryside levels. Furthermore， dynamics of population migration and its relation to economic development， as well as the processes and mechanisms of resource redistribution， will also be discussed.

二、Population migration

In Shanghai， population migration consists of two main types. One migration that is accompanied by a change in registered residence （hukou）; the other is spontaneous migration that has not been approved by the hukou administrative authority （these migrants are generally called the floating population）.Population migration data enumerated in state statistical bureau of statistical yearbook relates to both types of migration mentioned above. It shows that the numbers involved in the second types are far greater than those involved in the former.

In the second part， this paper will give an overview of the population movement in shanghai， that is， the situation of population inflow and outflow; the third part carries on the economic statistics of the population movement data; the fourth part analyzes the results of economic statistics. The fifth part summarizes the full text and draws a conclusion.

The figure below shows the relative data of GDP and population moving in and out.It also shows trends of GDP，inbound population and outbound population over time.From the above growth rate，we can see that after the reform and opening up，the population movement in Shanghai is very active.The following figure：

1、General analysis

Thetableabove shows the statistics of population movement and GDP in 1990，1995 and from2000 to 2017 after the reform and opening up of Shanghai.The total mobile population in 1990 was229，900，of which 14，600 were net migrants，a migration rate of 1.14 per cent.The total mobile cent.The total mobile population in 1995 was 195，900，with a net inflow of 66500 and a migration rate of 5.11 per cent.In 2000，the total mobile population was20.48，and the mechanical population increased by 98480，a growth rate of 7.47%.In 2010，the total population movement was 22.19，and the net migration population was 122，500，with a growth rate of 8.71%.In 2017，the total mobile population was 160，200，and the mechanical population was 76，800，with a growth rate of 5.29%.

2、The changing trend of population migration over time

The change in population migration： The number of people in Shanghai increased from 1990 to 2002， with the rate rising from 9.52% to 11.58%. From 2006 to 2010， the number of people moving in increased rapidly， with the rate rising from 9.43% to 12.24. From 2002 to 2006， except for a big fluctuation in 2009， the number of people moved in declined. From 2010 to 2017， there was also an overall downward trend; The change in population emigration： There was a sharp drop in emigration between 1990 and 2004. Since 2004， the emigration population began to rise.

三、Model Setting and Variable Description

1、Regression equation

This paper chooses Shanghai as the city to establish a panel data model， the purpose of which is to examine the impact of population flow on a regions economy from an empirical perspective. ?Therefore， the total annual real GDP of this region is selected as the explained variable， and the core explained variable is the annual net outflow and inflow of the citys population.Through regressionanalysis， the following equations are obtained：

Supplement： “t” means time; “μ” represents an unobservable time effect， which is a variable that does not change with the city and explains all the time-related effects that are not included in the equation.

3、Theoretical Explanation of the Relationship between Population Flow and Regional Economic Growth

Net population inflow affects economic growth by increasing labor supply， promoting industrial restructuring， improving technological level and promoting consumption. The more net population inflow， the more favorable economic growth will be. From the demand point of view， the huge population inflow itself constitutes a huge consumer market， forming a huge purchasing power. The necessities of life of the floating population undoubtedly depend on the supply of the city， and such consumption expands the consumption demand of the city， increases the income of the city residents， and finally manifests itself in the economic growth of the region.

For the outflow place， the large population loss makes the labor supply insufficient， which may lead to insufficient development stamina for the outflow industry. ?Moreover， the majority of the outflow population are young people and talents with higher education， thus slowing down the rate of human capital accumulation and technological innovation in the net outflow.

四、Conclusion

This paper analyzes the impact of population flow on regional economic growth by using Chinas municipal panel data， and confirms that population flow has a more significant impact on Chinas regional economic growth. On the one hand， the higher the net inflow of population， the higher the level of economic growth. On the other hand， the net outflow of population will hinder the regional economic growth.

In fact， the net population flow and economic growth are interactive. On the one hand， population flow will promote or hinder economic growth， on the other hand， the degree of economic growth will also have a certain effect on population flow. Therefore， considering the possible endogenous problems， the estimation results of the models in this paper are biased and have certain defects， which only provide a research perspective for later scholars.

Based on the above analysis of Shanghais inter-regional population migration and economic development，two conclusions can be drawn as follows. Firstly， we find that Shanghais economy has experienced a change along these lines in the course of the marketisation that has taken place since the reforms. ?Secondly， in the course of modern economic development， the distributionof economic resources.

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