Bullet Trains Are Transforming the World’s Biggest Migration高鐵改變全球最大規模的人口流動

李小華

Hundreds of millions of Chinese cram onto trains to make the annual pilgrimage1 home for the Lunar New Year holiday. It’s a crowded and often uncomfortable experience that is rapidly being transformed by the country’s push2 into the world of high-speed rail.

China already has the globe’s longest bullet-train network， but it’s plowing3 3.5 trillion yuan （$556 billion） into expanding its railway system by 18% over the next two years， to 150，000 kilometers， or more than 93，000 miles.

Much of that will be spent on extending the high-speed network westward， which includes parts of the country that ancient Chinese poet Li Bai once lamented4 were so mountainous that getting there was as challenging as reaching the sky.

Almost 400 million people—that’s more than the U.S. population5—will travel by train over the Lunar New Year， also known as Spring Festival. China’s factories and offices shut down for the week-long holiday， which unleashes6 the largest migration of humans on the planet. Many of the country’s 1.4 billion citizens return to their hometowns for family gatherings， or， increasingly， are taking the chance to be tourists both at home and abroad.

While the advent of cut-price flights has dimmed7 the appeal of rail travel in other parts of the world， in China it’s on the rise. The Spring Festival in 2017 saw a record 10.96 million trips on one day， and for the first time more people took bullet trains than conventional ones， according to official data.

Almost nonexistent in China a decade ago， high-speed rail has exploded， with more than half of the 25，000-kilometer network built between 2013 and 2017. The plan is to expand it by more than 50% by 2025， with eight main bullet-train lines running from east to west8 by 2030. China intends to have another eight main lines running from north to south as well.

That will open up the network—which was initially focused on setting up high-speed connections9 in major economic hubs along China’s wealthier east coast—to the less developed west.

“These lines provide ample capacity during peak travel periods such as the Lunar New Year and in other times can stimulate growth in tourism and other businesses in the service sector in western China，” said Sun Zhang， a railway expert at Tongji University in Shanghai. “High-speed rail will help to bridge economic imbalances between China’s east and west.”

The latest of the westward bullet-train lines opened in December 2017， and connects Chengdu， the capital of Sichuan province， to Xi’an， a city in China’s northwest famed for the Terracotta Warriors.

With a top speed of 250 kilometers an hour， the high-speed rail cuts through the region’s mountainous terrain in a quarter of the time taken by a regular train. The cost—which starts10 at 263 yuan （$42） for a single-trip ticket—is about half that of a one-way flight.

Chen Gaozhi， a businessman who lives in Xi’an， traveled the route last year. He took a high-speed train back to his hometown in Sichuan just days ahead of the New Year holiday， which started Feb. 15， 2018.

“I’ve always flown back home during the Lunar New Year over the past 10 years， but 70% to 80% of the time the flights would get delayed，” Gaozhi said. “The worst experience was four years ago when I had a flight back to Xi’an after the New Year scheduled at six in the afternoon， but the plane didn’t take off until midnight.”

Last Spring Festival， people made an estimated 390 million rail trips in the 40 days starting February， the typical travel period for the holiday. That was up 8.8% from a year earlier， and almost double the 200 million trips made in 2010. Four of the eight high-speed lines going from east to west are already in operation.

The last time Gaozhi took a train back for the holiday was when he was in college， and it took more than 16 hours. This time， he said， “It’ll only take three hours for me to go home.”

每年中國都有幾億人擠上火車，踏上返鄉旅途，歡度農歷新年。這種擁擠不堪、令人不適的乘車體驗，正在因中國高鐵的大力發展而快速改變。

中國已擁有全球里程最長的高鐵路網，盡管如此，中國在未來兩年里仍將再投資3.5萬億元（合5560億美元），使全國鐵路路網總長增加18%，達到15萬公里，即9.3萬多英里。

投資大多用于高鐵網絡的西部拓展建設。沿線地區群山疊嶂，昔日行路難于上青天，難怪古代詩人李白曾因此嘆惜。

在農歷新年即春節期間，中國乘坐火車出行的人數將近4億，超過了美國總人口數。中國的工廠和各個單位停工休假一周，從而觸發了全球規模最大的人口流動。中國有14億人口，其中大多會返鄉與家人團聚，同時也有越來越多的人借此機會在國內外旅游。

自從航空公司推出折扣機票以來，乘坐火車出行的吸引力在世界其他地區已經減弱，但在中國卻與日俱增。官方數據顯示，2017年春節創下了單日客流量1096萬人次的歷史新高，同時高鐵客流量首次超過普鐵客流量。

十年前中國基本上還沒有高鐵，但如今中國高鐵的發展一日千里，路網規模已達2.5萬公里，其中半數以上為2013年至2017年間鋪設完成。中國計劃到2025年將高鐵路網規模擴大50%以上，到2030年年底建成“八橫”高鐵干線。中國還有意鋪設“八縱”干線。

這樣，中國高鐵網絡將會把欠發達的西部地區納入其中——在建設初期，該網絡只是為了在相對富裕的東部沿海地區主要經濟中心之間建立起高速連接。

“這些線路為農歷新年等客流高峰期提供充足的運力保障，在其他時段則能刺激中國西部旅游等服務業的發展。”上海同濟大學的鐵路專家孫章說，“高鐵有助于緩解中國東西部經濟發展的不平衡。”

2017年12月，最新建成的西行高鐵線路開通運營，它連通了四川省會成都和以兵馬俑聞名的西北城市西安。

此條高鐵線路穿山越嶺，最高時速可達250公里，全程運行時間是普通列車的1/4。單程票價最低263元（合42美元），約為單程機票的一半。

常住西安的商人陳高志（音譯）去年經由此線出行。他在2月15日農歷新年假期開始前幾日乘上高鐵，回四川老家過年。

“十年來我一直都是坐飛機回老家過年，但航班十有八九都會晚點。”陳高志說，“最糟糕的一次是在四年前。那次我年后坐飛機回西安，原定下午六點的飛機，直到半夜才起飛。”

據估算，去年春節，從2月開始為期40天的春運時段里，鐵路客流量達到3.9億人次，同比增長8.8%，與2010年2億人次的客流量相比，幾乎翻了一番。在“八橫”高鐵線路中，已有四條投入運營。

陳高志上次乘火車返鄉過年還要追溯到他上大學期間，當時他用了16個多小時。而這回，他說：“只要3個小時我就到家了。”