基于空間引力模型的土地儲備成本收益研究

郭茹 劉新平

摘要：以克拉瑪依市主城區為研究區，將其劃分為14個土地儲備潛力評價區，構建土地儲備成本和收益科目計算體系，引入圈層理論與空間引力模型對土地儲備成本和收益進行分析。結果表明，克拉瑪依市區土地儲備總成本為247 241.73萬元，平均單位面積土地儲備成本355.86萬元/hm2，土地預期總收益為213 546.92萬元，平均單位面積土地儲備收益307.36萬元/hm2。一級圈層土地儲備成本每公頃上漲1萬元，將帶動二級圈層土地儲備成本平均每公頃增加0.46萬元，單位空間距離上的波動衰減量為0.27萬元/km;二級圈層與三級圈層單位空間距離上的波動衰減量為0.19萬元/km。一級圈層土地儲備收益每公頃增加1萬元，對二級圈層黑油山片區和風華片區波動引力值達到0.62萬～0.64萬元，衰減幅度達到36%，引力衰減量為0.19萬元/km;一三級圈層與二三級圈層引力衰減幅度分別為89%和90%，衰減力量相當。土地儲備成本隨著城市外擴呈遞減趨勢，克拉瑪依市當前應合理配置土地儲備財政資金，科學布局土地儲備規劃規模，主要選取市場需求較熱、基礎設施配備較完善、土地儲備成本較低的土地進行儲備，并在制度范圍內突破融資渠道。

關鍵詞：土地儲備;成本收益;空間引力;克拉瑪依市

中圖分類號：F301.2? ? ? ? ?文獻標識碼：A

文章編號：0439-8114（2019）09-0142-07

DOI：10.14088/j.cnki.issn0439-8114.2019.09.034? ? ? ? ? ?開放科學（資源服務）標識碼（OSID）：

Abstract： Taking the main city of Karamay as the research area， which is divided into 14 land reserve potential evaluation areas， the land reserve cost and income is analyzed by constructing the land reserve cost and income account calculation system， and introducing the circle theory and space gravity model. The results show that the total cost of land reserve in Karamay city is 2，472，417，300 yuan; the average land area cost per unit area is 3，558，600 yuan/hm2; the total expected land income is 2，135，649，200 yuan; and the average unit area land reserve income is 3，073，600 yuan/hm2. When the land storage and storage cost of the first-level circle increase by 10，000 yuan/hm2， it will increase the average cost of land storage and storage in the second-level circle by 4 600 yuan/hm2; and the fluctuation of the unit space distance is 2 700 yuan/km. The fluctuation of the unit space between the second layer and the third layer is 1 900 yuan/km. The wave gravitational attraction value of the Heiyoushan area and Fenghua area of the second layer is 6 200～6 400 yuan; the attenuation amplitude is 36%; and the gravitation attenuation is 1 900 yuan/km. The gravitational forces attenuation amplitudes of the first-three level and second-third are 89% and 90%， respectively; and the attenuation power is equivalent. The cost of land storage and storage will decrease with the expansion of the city. Karamay city should rationally allocate land reserve financial funds， scientifically plan the scale of land reserve planning， mainly select land with hot market demand， better infrastructure and low land acquisition and storage， and break through financing channels within the system.

Key words： land reserve; cost and income; spatial attraction; Karamay