邵博 葉翀



[摘 要]“十三五”以來,我國的物流水平迅速提高,逐漸向供應鏈物流方向發展,但是由于供應鏈物流過程中伴隨著諸多不確定性,供應鏈風險也不斷增加,如何提高供應鏈物流協同聯動,有效降低供應鏈物流的風險成為亟待解決的問題。針對多式聯運的特點,建立AHP-模糊綜合評估組合模型,先運用層次分析法(AHP)對多式聯運項目中的風險進行指標層次分析,再根據分析結果進行模糊綜合評價,最后進行風險分析及風險轉移管理,通過對某多式聯運項目實證分析表明,該模型可以有效進行供應鏈物流風險管控,促進多式聯運產業良好發展。
[關鍵詞]多式聯運;風險管理;AHP;模糊綜合評價
[中圖分類號]F259.22
[文獻標識碼]A
[文章編號]2095-3283(2019)11-0101-05
Abstract: Since the “13th Five-Year Plan”, Chinas logistics level has developed rapidly and is gradually developing towards supply chain logistics. However, due to the uncertainties in the supply chain logistics process, the supply chain risks are also increasing. How to improve the supply chain logistics synergy linkage? Effectively reducing the risk of supply chain logistics has become an urgent problem to be solved. In this paper, based on the characteristics of multimodal transport, the AHP-fuzzy comprehensive evaluation combined model is established. The analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is used to analyze the risk of the multimodal transport project, and then the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation based on the analysis. Analysis and risk transfer management, through empirical analysis of a multimodal transport project, shows that the model can effectively carry out supply chain logistics risk management and control, and promote the good development of multimodal transport industry.
Keywords: Multimodal Transport; Risk Management; AHP; Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation
一、引言
“十三五”以來,我國現代化物流產業飛速進步,我國與發達國家之間的物流水平差距不斷縮小。但總體來說,我國的供應鏈物流產業仍處于發展的初級階段,大型物流項目如多式聯運工程、物流園區(中心)工程、冷鏈物流工程等都還處于初步建設階段,在投資建設中不乏存在各種風險,對項目風險進行系統的分析管理,是政府和企業決策的重要依據。針對這種現狀,對大型物流項目進行風險評估及管理研究,從企業角度進行風險考察則是至關重要的。多式聯運(Intermodality)是由多種物流運輸工具相互銜接,配合而共同轉運所完成的物流復合運輸,利用現代化組織手段,充分發揮多種交通工具的運輸優點,打破區域間物流運輸界限,是我國物流“十三五”規劃中重點建設的物流工程項目。……