Ukraine crisis deeply influences NATO's future devdevelopment

摘要：The ongoing Ukraine crisis is believed to be the most significant geopolitical incident after the fall of Berlin Wall. It deeply influences， among others， the future development of NATO （North Atlantic Treaty Organization）， which is the world's largest military alliance and western countries' ace in the hole in case of security emergency. The crisis enhances the status and influence of NATO on the international arena， as well as impacts NATO's transition process since the end of Cold War. The old question of Where will NATO go again becomes a hot topic.

關鍵詞：Ukraine crisisNATOfuture development

1. The present situation of the development of NATO

There was a time after the Cold War that NATO thought Russia was no longer a major threat to the western world. In 1994 Russia joined NATO's Partnership for Peace. In 1997 the two sides signed the NATO-Russia Founding Act on Mutual Relations， Cooperation and Security. In 2002 Russian and NATO leaders signed a declaration on \"NATO-Russia Relations： A New Quality\" and establish the NATO-Russia Council （NRC）. Even the Georgian War did not change the course of NATO-Russia relations. In 2010 at the Lisbon Summit， NRC leaders pledged to \"work towards achieving a true strategic and modernized partnership\".

Though the two sides constantly argued about NATO's ballistic missile defense programs， their relationship remained overall stable. Before the Ukraine crisis Russia's representative to NATO could freely enter NATO headquarters， the two sides were also promoting key areas of cooperation， including fight against terrorism， defense reform， military-to-military cooperation， counter-narcotics training of Afghan， counter-piracy， crisis management， non-proliferation.

the security situation in Europe， as well as the relationship between NATO and Russia. It insisted on harsh sanctions on Russia and asked its European allies to be tough. Due to historic reasons Poland and Baltic countries have always been suspicious towards Russia. Their worries and fear have been magnified by Russia's acts in the crisis. Comparing to them， big countries like Germany， Fence and UK， who have closer ties of interest with Russia， are raising their awareness but not willing to provoke the Bear. Some western scholars and medias even pointed China instead of Russia as the biggest challenge to the West. How to decide on the nature of Russia， to engage with it or to contain it remains a question of great concern to NATO.

1.2 NATO Stick to traditional defense regions.

NATO has been actively promoting strategic transition after the end of the Cold War， in order to adapt to new realities and seek so called legitimacy of existence. After 9.11 it made more efforts on combating terrorism and other new security challenges stemming from areas outside of transatlantic regions， expanding its activities from Europe， its traditional region， towards outside world. The New Strategic Concept adopted at Lisbon Summit in 2010 established Collective Defense， Crisis Management and Cooperative Security as NATO's three core tasks which called for NATO to pick up its pace of globalization through more cooperation with partner countries and intervention in the outside regions. However member states have never been unanimous on this question， nor did the effort of globalization went on smoothly.

Eastern European members cried for more assuring protection. Some NATO officials said the ending of ISAF mission would be the best opportunity for returning to Europe.

1.3 NATO countries should increase the investment in military power

As NATO's focus shifting to emerging challenges like terrorism， cyber security， energy and sea lanes security， many European members started to cut down traditional deterrence and attacking forces， while worked on building more light and swift forces， as well as cooperative security based on partnerships with countries in Eastern Europe， Middle East， Central Asia and Asia-Pacific regions. After the outbreak of European debt crisis， their military spending shrank even more.

However， faced with Russia's strong military capabilities during the Ukraine crisis， European countries once again realized that only soft power without hard power is not enough and started to rethink about their continuous cuttings on military spending. The defense policy coordinator of Germany's Social Democratic Party expressed worries about NATO's cuttings on tanks and other traditional heavy armaments. US pushed hard on Europe to reinforce traditional military defense capabilities. General Martin Dempsey， Chairman of the United States Joint Chiefs of Staff said that NATO should revisit its Cold War defense task and prove its reliability.

2. The influence of Ukrainian crisis to NATO

NATO will pay more attention in its traditional defense regions， while at the same time try to continue promoting its globalization strategy. NATO has claimed to take out more military exercises in order to deter Russia， reiterated its Open door policy， pledged to help Georgia to join the alliance. NATO will also lunch a Readiness Action Plan at Wales summit， which will be held in early September this year， to reinforce the alliance's military and crisis management capabilities， in order to cope with the crisis and deter Russia in a longer term. The above mentioned shows that though NATO and Russia do not wish to see a real military conflict between each other， it's hard to go back to the \"good old time\" before the crisis， which is a problem that demands more attention of NATO to deal with. Meanwhile NATO sees Asia as the most vigorously developing region in the world and would not like to be absent in this region. With the US and Japan pulling NATO to this region， NATO is very much likely to have some sort of participation. Both Europeans and Americans have a stake in making sure that the Pacific Ocean can live up to its name and remain the peaceful ocean.

Slowing down its pace of globalization looks like the coming trend of NATO's future development. On the backdrop of a rising East and a declining West， the US and Europe will have much less enthusiasm in promoting NATO's globalization. With both the US and Europe's military cost remaining at a low point in the foreseeable future， the US is obviously outsourcing Europe's security to European countries themselves. European countries once held a supportive attitude towards NATO's globalization deeming that Europe was no longer under threat. However， worried and to some degree frightened by Russia's show of muscle in the Ukraine crisis， they now care more about their own security than business in other regions. All these factors will have a cooling effect on NATO's globalization fever.

Conclusion： Ukrainian crisis is after the end of the cold war， a major event in the evolution of the international system， structure， development， and the safety of NATO have great effect on the strategic pattern of the world. At present， the Ukrainian crisis are still in the process of evolution， can't make the final judgment to the end. But for the experience and lessons of international relations can be seen in modern times， Ukraine crisis impact on NATO.

Reference：

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[2]王酈久.Where Will Russia's Domestic and Foreign Policies Go under the“Medvedev-Putin Tandem”（detailed abstracts）[J].和平與發展，2010，3（30）：175-180.

[3]Gradual Stabilization and Further Adjustments[J].Contemporary International Relations，2010，1（15）：112-120.