江蘇省工業(yè)發(fā)展與大氣污染物排放的時(shí)空演變關(guān)系

田穎, 沈紅軍

(江蘇省環(huán)境監(jiān)測(cè)中心, 江蘇 南京 210036)

·環(huán)境預(yù)警·

江蘇省工業(yè)發(fā)展與大氣污染物排放的時(shí)空演變關(guān)系

田穎, 沈紅軍

(江蘇省環(huán)境監(jiān)測(cè)中心, 江蘇 南京 210036)

選取2001—2014年的相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù)，采用環(huán)境庫(kù)茲涅茨曲線(EKC曲線)模型和物理學(xué)的區(qū)域重心模型，分析了江蘇省工業(yè)發(fā)展與大氣污染物排放的時(shí)空演變關(guān)系。結(jié)果表明，2001年以來(lái)，隨著工業(yè)總產(chǎn)值的增加，工業(yè)廢氣排放量呈現(xiàn)增加的趨勢(shì)，雖然增加幅度有所減緩，但是拐點(diǎn)還未出現(xiàn)，而SO2和煙粉塵排放強(qiáng)度已經(jīng)跨過(guò)EKC曲線高峰進(jìn)入二者協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展的新階段。時(shí)空演變關(guān)系表明，工業(yè)總產(chǎn)值和污染物排放強(qiáng)度重心均有較大的移動(dòng)，并且二者的移動(dòng)方向呈現(xiàn)相反的趨勢(shì)，而SO2和煙粉塵排放強(qiáng)度重心的移動(dòng)方向具有相同的趨勢(shì)，并且移動(dòng)幅度接近。指出，當(dāng)污染物減排到一定程度時(shí)，新的技術(shù)和政策措施必須同步發(fā)展，才能使污染物排放得到進(jìn)一步控制，最終進(jìn)入第五個(gè)階段。

大氣環(huán)境；工業(yè)化；環(huán)境EKC曲線；時(shí)空變化；二氧化硫；煙粉塵；江蘇

Abstract： Based on the data of 2001—2014, the evolution of relationship between spatial development and industrial emissions of air pollutants of Jiangsu province were analyzed by models of environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) and regional center model. Results showed that: since 2001, with the increase of gross industrial product, the amount of industrial waste gas emissions has increased, and the increase has slowed down, but the turning point has not yet appeared, while sulfur dioxide and smoke dust emission intensity had stepped over “high peak” of EKC and gone into the new stage that both were developing harmoniously. The relationship between time and space evolution shows that the focus of the industrial development and the intensity of the emission intensity of the pollutants are moving, and the moving direction showed the opposite trend, meanwhile, the focus of sulfur dioxide and smoke dust emission intensity had the same trend and close moving amplitude. However, when the pollutant emission reduction to a certain extent, new technology and policy measures must be developed in order to further control the emission of pollutants, and enter the fifth stage.

Keywords：Atmospheric environment; Industrialization; Environmental Kuznets Curve; Temporal and spatial variation；SO2；Smoke powder；Jiangsu

環(huán)境污染是工業(yè)發(fā)展的產(chǎn)物，在工業(yè)化起步發(fā)展的初期，能源和水資源消耗日益劇增，工業(yè)廢棄物的排放量同步增長(zhǎng)，環(huán)境質(zhì)量開(kāi)始惡化；當(dāng)工業(yè)發(fā)展到一定程度，進(jìn)入后工業(yè)化時(shí)代，污染治理技術(shù)隨之提高，技術(shù)改造與結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整使得環(huán)境污染逐漸降低。從長(zhǎng)時(shí)間范圍來(lái)看，工業(yè)社會(huì)的環(huán)境質(zhì)量經(jīng)過(guò)一個(gè)先變壞后變好的過(guò)程，這種轉(zhuǎn)化關(guān)系最早是由美國(guó)學(xué)者GROSSMAN和KRUEDER發(fā)現(xiàn)的，被稱為環(huán)境庫(kù)茲涅茨曲線(EKC曲線)[1-3]。……