股息對投資者的影響

趙倩

【摘 要】BHP和Rio Tinto作為世界上第一和第三大煤炭公司，投資者對其股息的分配擁有高度的關注，在2012-2013年間投資者對于煤炭公司的高股息期望遠遠大于其他類型的公司。通過這個現象我們可以提出這樣一個問題：為什么投資者想要高的股息。這篇論文主要圍繞這個主題進行闡述，首先介紹股息的基本概念，包括什么是股息以及為什么公司需要支付股息，接著是對于股息分配的兩種觀念，即高股息和低股息哪個更有利，第三部分介紹股利政策和代理問題，其中通過了M&M 模型來闡述公司股息分配，最后是論文的總結，通過以上研究可以知道投資者為什么關注股息支付率以及追求高股息的原因。

【關鍵詞】股息政策；代理問題；股息支付率

Introduction

A high dividend from mining companies is expected to be seen by most fund managers now when the forecast of dividend in mining companies is less than other broader market in 2012-2013.Ross Barker，the chief executive of Australia Foundation Investment Company，once said that high dividend is the best way to create firm value although there are a lot of money need be spent on the projects，but the payout ratio is very low in mining companies such as BHP and Rio Tinto.BHP Billiton is the world's largest mining company and Rio Tinto is the third largest in the world.

The above statement gives a question about why investors want a high dividend.The essay will illustrate this statement.Firstly I will discuss what the dividend is and why companies pay dividends， then the next section I will states two opinions about dividends，then the dividends policy and agency problem will be following，the last part will be the conclusion about the paper.

Why Do Companies Pay Dividends？

A company has an opportunity to pay its investors a dividend only after it has become profitable and can generate free cash flow.Free cash flow is the amount of cash a company generates from minus its capital expenditures.Basically， free cash flow is the amount of cash a company has left after it's made the necessary investments back into its business.Free cash flow gives a company a lot of options.They have the option of using this excess cash to either invest it back into their business or pay it out as dividends.

Looking forward，firms with a greater demonstrated ability to self-finance most likely are also firms with a greater ability to internally fund projects that reduce stockholder wealth.Such potential waste is limited by ongoing distributions that reduce the cash resources under managerial control.A regular stream of dividends reduces the threat of agency problems that become increasingly serious as earned equity looms ever larger in the firm's capital structure.The relationship between earned equity and the decision to pay dividends is significant economically as well as statistically，with the difference between high and low values of earned equity translating to a substantial difference in the probability of paying dividends.

However，not all the people are with the dividend theory，next I am going to state the different opinion about dividends.

Arguments for Dividends

In opposition to these two arguments is the idea that a high dividend payout is important for investors because dividends provide certainty about the company's financial well-being；dividends are also attractive for investors looking to secure current income.In addition，there are many examples of how the decrease and increase of a dividend distribution can affect the price of a security.Companies that have a long-standing history of stable dividend payouts would be negatively affected by lowering or omitting dividend distributions；these companies would be positively affected by increasing dividend payouts or making additional payouts of the same dividends.Furthermore，companies without a dividend history are generally viewed favourably when they declare new dividends.

Arguments against Dividends

Some financial analysts feel that the consideration of a dividend policy is irrelevant because investors have the ability to create "homemade" dividends.These analysts claim that this income is achieved by individuals adjusting their personal portfolios to reflect their own preferences.For example，investors looking for a steady stream of income are more likely to invest in bonds（in which interest payments don't change），rather than a dividend-paying stock（in which value can fluctuate）.Because their interest payments won't change，those who own bonds don't care about a particular company's dividend policy.

Dividend Policy and Agency Problem

The dividend policy means how the firm to pay dividend and how much does the firm to pay dividend.Dividend can be paid via cash and stock dividend.There are two kinds of theory to explain corporate dividend policy which are agency cost theory and free cash flow hypothesis.

Agency cost

Adam Smith define agency theory that ‘the directors of such joint-stock companies，however， being the managers rather of other peoples money than of their own，it cannot well be expected，that they should watch over it with the same anxious vigilance with which the partners in a private copartner frequently watch over their own.Like the stewards of a rich man，they are apt to consider attention to small matters as not for their masters honor，and very easily give themselves a dispensation from having it.Negligence and profusion，therefore，must always prevail，more or less，in the management of the affairs of such a company.

Free cash flow hypothesis

The free cash-flow hypothesis said that dividend policies are a way to solve agency problems between managers and outside investors.In particular，Jensens （1986） analysis the agency problem，he also stated that dividend policy can stop empire building manager from pursing his personal benefit and their incentive to invest in negative net present value projects.In order to reduce the free cash flow which is available to manager to use，increasing dividend is a better process to soften this problem.Dividend and debt interest payments reduce the free cash flow available to managers to invest in marginal net present value projects and manager unnecessary consumption.

Miller-Modigliani model

In the perfect market a firms value is irrelevant with its dividend policy.The valuation of a firm just relates to its earning power of its asset，it also relates to its investment policies，not by how the fruits of the earning power are “package” distribution.

In the following paragraph， it will describe M&M model detail.

where n（t） is the number of shares of record at the start of t，m（t+1） is the number of new shares sold during t at the ex-dividend closing price p（t+1），as a result，it can get n（t+1） is equal to n（t） + m（t+1），V（t） is equal to n（t）*p（t） which is the total value of the enterprise，D（t） is equal to n（t）*d（t） which is the total dividends paid during t to holders of record at the start of t.

Form the formula above，it is easy to see that the V （t） is not affected by the current dividend，the value of the firm only affected by the future value of the firm，it is important to notice that the v（t+1） is independent with current dividend payout.

However，there are some limitations for M&M model，Harold Kent Baker （2009） pointed out that M&M model can be established only if firms are the have the same zero-dividend or internal-financing and a non-zero-dividend or external-financing policy.

Conclusion

From the above discuss we can see that dividends are very important to the investor.Every young investment student learns of the "greater fool theory" when their professor or mentor asks whether dividends are important，without eventual dividends to the investor，the share is worthless.In the extreme，think the purchase of a share that guaranteed not to pay any dividends or other payouts to the holder.What would be the worth of this share to the holder？Simply，it would be a "promise not to pay".The holder might get some psychographic thrill from saying they owned the share，but they would in reality have the same claim to its assets and cash flows as anyone else.Their claim would be worthless， except if they sold it to someone who hadn't figured this out.An investor should be very wary of a company that doesn't seem to want to pay dividends or the payout ratio is low.If the analysis shows the earnings are reinvested in profitable projects rather than paid in dividends，this is a very good thing.If the analysis shows the projects are unprofitable or that excessive corporate expenses have eaten up the potential dividends，this is a very bad sign.So like the beginning I mentioned that investor always want a high dividend from mining company they always care about the payout ratio very much，because the dividend is important.

【References】

[1]Miller， M & Modigliani， M 1961， Dividend policy， growth， and the valuation of shares， Journal of Business 34， 411-433.

[2]Jensen， M.C 1984， The Modern Theroy of Corporate Finance. New York， McGraw-Hill.

[3]Kathleen， F & Goldstein， M 2003， Dividend Policy and Market Movements. Journal of corporate finance， vol. 1， No.2， pp.15-16.

[4]Lintner， J 1956， Distribution of income of corporations among dividends， retained earnings， and taxes， American Economic Review 46， 97-113.