柳州2022年6月極端“龍舟水”持續暴雨過程分析

摘要 利用FNL再分析資料、高空和地面觀測資料、區域氣象站雨量資料，對柳州市2022年6月16—22日的極端“龍舟水”持續暴雨過程進行分析，用統計分析等方法研究持續暴雨過程的特點，用天氣學診斷分析等方法研究持續暴雨的成因機制。結果表明：此次持續暴雨過程極端性強，其中3、6、12 h最大降水量均突破柳州市有氣象記錄以來的歷史極值，1和24 h最大降水量居歷史第2位，且夜雨明顯，具有暖區暴雨的特征。500 hPa短波槽是此次持續暴雨高層重要的動力強迫系統，短波槽周期為24 h左右，基本規律是夜間影響、白天移出，造成柳州降水夜強晝弱的特征。850 hPa強盛的西南氣流為暴雨發生提供了源源不斷的水汽輸送，長時間維持的深厚濕層為持續暴雨、極端暴雨提供了較好的濕度條件，同時850 hPa西南急流在白天減弱、夜間增強這種時間上的脈動，又為氣流的輻合上升創造了較好的低層動力條件，是暖區暴雨的一種重要觸發機制。該研究揭示的500 hPa短波槽24 h周期變化、850 hPa西南急流夜強晝弱的時間脈動，是造成柳州暴雨持續和夜雨特征的重要觸發和維持機制，為今后預報持續暴雨提供了較好的理論支撐。

關鍵詞 持續性；暖區暴雨；極端降水；短波槽；急流脈動

中圖分類號 P 458.3 文獻標識碼 A

文章編號 0517-6611（2024）22-0201-07

doi：10.3969/j.issn.0517-6611.2024.22.042

開放科學（資源服務）標識碼（OSID）：

Analysis of the Extreme “Dragon Boat Water” Continuous Rainstorm Process in Liuzhou in June 2022

ZHANG Ling-yun1，ZHAO Long-jie2，ZHANG Xin1

（1.Liuzhou Meteorological Bureau，Liuzhou，Guangxi 545001;2.Liujiang District Meteorological Bureau，Liuzhou，Guangxi 545100）

Abstract Using FNL reanalysis data，high-altitude and ground observation data and rainfall data of regional meteorological stations，the extreme “Dragon Boat Water” sustained rainstorm process in Liuzhou on June 16-22，2022 was analyzed，statistical analysis and other methods were used to study the characteristics of the continuous rainstorm process，and synoptic diagnostic analysis and other methods were used to study the mechanism of the continuous rainstorm.The results showed that the continuous rainstorm process was extremely extreme，of which the maximum precipitation in 3，6 and 12 h had exceeded the historical extreme value since the meteorological records in Liuzhou City，and the maximum precipitation in 1 and 24 h was the second in history，and the night rain was obvious，with the characteristics of rainstorm in warm regions.The 500 hPa short wave trough was an important dynamic forcing system in the upper layer of the continuous rainstorm.The short wave trough period was about 24 hours.The basic rule was that the influence at night and the movement out in the day lead to the characteristics of strong precipitation at night and weak precipitation at day in Liuzhou.The strong 850 hPa southwest airflow provided continuous water vapor transportation for rainstorm，and the long maintained deep wet layer provided better humidity conditions for continuous rainstorm and extreme rainstorm.At the same time，the 850 hPa southwest jet weakened in the daytime and strengthened at night，which created better low-level dynamic conditions for the convergence and rise of airflow，and was an important trigger mechanism for rainstorm in warm regions.The 24-hour periodic variation of 500 hPa short wave trough and the time fluctuation of 850 hPa southwest jet during the night and the day revealed by this study were important trigger and maintenance mechanisms for the persistence of rainstorm in Liuzhou and the characteristics of night rain，providing a better theoretical support for the prediction of sustained rainstorm in the future.

Key words Persistence;Rainstorm in warm region;Extreme precipitation;Short wave slot;Jet pulsation

暴雨是影響我國的重要災害天氣之一，由暴雨引發的洪澇、山洪、城鄉積澇及地質災害等嚴重威脅著人民群眾的生命財產安全。長期以來，暴雨研究一直……