后疫情時(shí)代，看亞洲新興經(jīng)濟(jì)體如何乘風(fēng)破浪

馬修·羅伯納

目前，亞洲新興經(jīng)濟(jì)體在抗擊新冠肺炎疫情方面處于不同階段。一些國(guó)家逐漸放寬社交隔離措施，經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)重啟就緒，即將迎來隧道盡頭的曙光。而部分國(guó)家仍處于全力抗疫、封鎖隔離的階段。

不論各國(guó)處于什么階段，它們都必須對(duì)現(xiàn)狀進(jìn)行深刻思考，采取適當(dāng)措施預(yù)防危機(jī)，改善經(jīng)濟(jì)長(zhǎng)期發(fā)展前景。新冠肺炎疫情對(duì)亞洲的發(fā)展中國(guó)家的經(jīng)濟(jì)和社會(huì)都造成了巨大沖擊，印尼也未能幸免。

旅行限制和隔離措施打擊了全球貿(mào)易和就業(yè)市場(chǎng)，財(cái)政赤字和債務(wù)擴(kuò)大也將持續(xù)惡化?？v使大家對(duì)旅游業(yè)、商業(yè)和消費(fèi)的信心稍有重建，但在嚴(yán)峻的全球經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢(shì)和新一輪潛在疫情暴發(fā)的影響下，大家很快又被籠罩在陰影之中。

盡管當(dāng)前仍面臨著諸多挑戰(zhàn)，亞洲的發(fā)展中國(guó)家仍然具備長(zhǎng)期發(fā)展的潛質(zhì)。

一方面，據(jù)聯(lián)合國(guó)2019年發(fā)布的《世界人口展望》，亞洲新興經(jīng)濟(jì)體的人口結(jié)構(gòu)優(yōu)勢(shì)明顯，在印度、孟加拉國(guó)和東南亞地區(qū)的人口中，20歲以下人口占總?cè)丝诘?/3以上;另一方面，亞洲新興經(jīng)濟(jì)體的創(chuàng)新能力、高端制造業(yè)和服務(wù)業(yè)能力逐步提升，各國(guó)國(guó)內(nèi)所涌現(xiàn)的大量電子商務(wù)、電子支付等相關(guān)公司，都印證了這一點(diǎn)。

另一方面，新冠肺炎疫情在一定程度上刺激了家庭、公司和企業(yè)家對(duì)新理念、新技術(shù)的追求，比如購(gòu)物消費(fèi)、商品銷售、銀行業(yè)務(wù)、課程學(xué)習(xí)和社交方式等。此外，外匯儲(chǔ)備上升、外債規(guī)模下降以及經(jīng)常賬戶收支平衡，這令外界普遍認(rèn)為，相比于1997～1998年亞洲金融危機(jī)和2008年全球金融危機(jī)時(shí)期，如今的亞洲新興經(jīng)濟(jì)體更有能力抵御外部金融沖擊。

隨著2020年危機(jī)的出現(xiàn)，各國(guó)政府機(jī)構(gòu)及其央行迅速采取降息、增加資金流動(dòng)性等金融措施幫助個(gè)人、家庭以及企業(yè)共度難關(guān)。

2020年5月，印尼總統(tǒng)佐科·維多多宣布印尼政府將放寬社交隔離政策并進(jìn)入更為持久的社會(huì)限制階段。同時(shí)，為了穩(wěn)定經(jīng)濟(jì)，政府也將采取財(cái)政刺激等調(diào)控手段提升醫(yī)療保障水平，推動(dòng)經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇。

誠(chéng)然，新冠肺炎疫情所帶來的難題將與之長(zhǎng)期共存。政策制定者也應(yīng)站在投資者和經(jīng)商者的角度，以提高新興經(jīng)濟(jì)體的吸引力為目的，采取膽子大、步子穩(wěn)的策略，主要體現(xiàn)在以下3個(gè)方面。

第一，改善當(dāng)?shù)亟?jīng)營(yíng)環(huán)境，為企業(yè)復(fù)蘇提供助力。小至削減繁文縟節(jié)，打擊貪污腐敗，大至取消對(duì)外商投資的限制，促進(jìn)勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)改革。許多國(guó)家在此方面已取得卓越成就，在此基礎(chǔ)上發(fā)展將使它們處于有利地位。

第二，增加各領(lǐng)域投資，提高市場(chǎng)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力和生產(chǎn)力，尤其是增加在交通和能源基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施、電信和互聯(lián)網(wǎng)連接、醫(yī)療保健、智慧教育和低碳化城市管理等方面的投資。《亞洲發(fā)展展望2018》報(bào)告顯示，這些領(lǐng)域?qū)⑹侵伟l(fā)展中國(guó)家經(jīng)濟(jì)長(zhǎng)期增長(zhǎng)的關(guān)鍵，同時(shí)也有助于提高機(jī)器人、自動(dòng)化、3D打印和人工智能等技術(shù)的進(jìn)步。不論是深謀遠(yuǎn)慮的基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè)，還是危機(jī)過后的基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施改善，二者對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的持續(xù)性與韌性都至關(guān)重要。

第三，制定應(yīng)對(duì)氣候變化政策，并采取相應(yīng)措施。東南亞和南亞國(guó)家受氣候變化影響嚴(yán)重，達(dá)卡、胡志明、雅加達(dá)、曼谷和孟買等地勢(shì)較低的城市極易受到風(fēng)暴和海平面上升的影響。如今，為發(fā)展當(dāng)?shù)亟?jīng)濟(jì)，越來越多的國(guó)家或地區(qū)重視抵御氣候?yàn)?zāi)害的能力，集資建設(shè)綠化、加強(qiáng)氣候防護(hù)，這也將成為影響當(dāng)?shù)仄髽I(yè)和投資者經(jīng)營(yíng)管理的重要因素。

新冠肺炎疫情給人類的生命和經(jīng)濟(jì)造成了不可估量的損失，其影響仍將持續(xù)數(shù)月，甚至數(shù)年。然而，危機(jī)與機(jī)遇總是并存的。政策制定者和企業(yè)管理者不得不重新審視危機(jī)并加快改革，把握機(jī)遇的新興經(jīng)濟(jì)體不僅能迎來隧道盡頭的曙光，還能夯實(shí)基礎(chǔ)，在世界經(jīng)濟(jì)的大海中乘風(fēng)破浪。

·來源：《雅加達(dá)郵報(bào)》

·編譯：盛潔

In an age of disruption， no disrupter has been greater than the COVID-19. The coronaviruss toll on human health is undeniable. But business has also been hit hard. Lockdowns and quarantines have broken supply chains around the world. Shipments of goods， including food and medicines， have run into roadblocks， leaving countless people in need. The virus exploited weaknesses in our immune system. The pandemic exposed vulnerabilities in our global system of manufacturing and trade.

One country that has managed to contain the pandemic， keep its factories churning， and supply chains flowing is the Kingdom of Thailand.

Nowhere has that been more evident than in the Eastern Economic Corridor （EEC）， Thailands advanced development zone， and home to clusters of hi-tech industries. The pandemic forced parts of the economy to shut down， but the Corridors logistics networks-its ports， airports， trains， highways， and digital links-remained operational. Meanwhile， the government is building even more infrastructure to boost connectivity further. Investors are taking note of that commitment and resilience as they rethink how to do business in a changing world.

“Business continuity is now a more important consideration， as is diversification，” said Dr. Luxmon Attapich， Deputy Secretary-General of the EEC. Thailand and the EEC are providing those. Once regarded as a backwater， Southeast Asia is a viable commercial supply chain location， according to the U.S.-ASEAN Business Council. And within Southeast Asia， the EEC is the largest， most strategically located， fully integrated and connected hub for advanced industries.

The Corridors wealth of supporting businesses and logistical options saved the day for Quantum SPT， said Mario Schiller， the companys operations manager. When some countries shut down and stopped producing parts for the industrial pumps Quantum manufactures in Thailand for export， Schiller was able to find Thai firms willing and able to make them. He intends to keep sourcing from those companies going forward. When the movement of people was restricted to stop the spread of the virus， the government ensured his employees could still get to work. When distressed global airlines canceled cargo flights， he was able to ship goods from the EECs Laem Chabang seaport. “Thailand showed it is crisis-proof. It is a great place to be，” Schiller said.

The EECs 12 targeted industries are saving the day for others too. The Corridors companies are making essential medical equipment and pharmaceuticals. Its firms excel in biotechnology. They are innovating to produce healthy “food for the future”. Others produce smart electronics， next-generation vehicles， and aviation and aerospace technology. All are supported by an extensive ecosystem of suppliers， skilled workers， research facilities， and advanced logistics.

One silver lining of the pandemic has been an acceleration in the adoption of digital technologies， another EEC targeted sector. Companies in the EEC are rapidly incorporating automation， robotics， and artificial intelligence in production. The Corridors expanding 5G network facilitates technologies that require the Internet of Things.

Thailand leads ASEAN in 5G rollout， according to the Nikkei Asian Review. By the end of this year， over nine million Thais will be covered by 5G with that number projected to exceed 30 million in the next five years.

With 134% mobile phone penetration and 100% of mobile Internet users connected to broadband， Thais are ready for 5G. Should another crisis strike， businesses in Thailand are well prepared to keep working.

The embrace of innovation and cutting-edge technologies complements the Kingdoms traditional strengths. Thailand has a long track record of business-friendly policies， a willingness to meet investors needs， a diligent and adaptable workforce， commitment to free trade， and a welcoming attitude to foreigners. The Kingdom is also steadily rising in global rankings for ease of doing business， competitiveness， E-government， innovation， logistics performance， and global connectedness. U.S. News and World Report named Thailand the best country in the world for starting a business in 2019.

The Kingdom is striving to do even better for investors. The government recently cut taxes in half for companies that invest at least US$ 33 million in businesses involved in the EECs 12 targeted industries. More tax breaks are available for companies investing in automation， higher technologies， research， and skills development.

Thailand has weathered global economic contagions， a tsunami， massive floods and other disasters. And every time it emerges stronger and more resilient. In this era of disruption， Thailand is proving it is among the strongest links in any supply chain.

· Source： Ministry of Foreign Affairs， Kingdom of Thailand