保定市暴雨天氣氣候特征分析

付建 王小熙

摘要 選取保定國家基本氣象站1981—2018年近38年降水觀測資料，對保定市暴雨天氣氣候特征進行分析。結果表明，近38年保定市年平均暴雨日數為1.3 d，隨時間變化呈略下降趨勢，氣候傾向率為-0.113 d/10年，暴雨最早出現在5月，最晚出現在9月，集中出現在7—8月，以7月最多;年平均大暴雨日為0.2 d，近38年大暴雨日數也趨于略減少;日極端最大降雨量平均為68.6 mm，近38年呈減少趨勢，氣候傾向率為-1.798 mm/10年。暴雨日數、極端降水量均趨于減少，說明保定市氣候趨于暖干化發展，應加強生態保護積極應對氣候變化。

關鍵詞 保定市;暴雨天氣;氣候特征;分析

中圖分類號：P426.6 文獻標識碼：A 文章編號：2095-3305（2019）04-053-02

DOI： 10.19383/j.cnki.nyzhyj.2019.04.021

Abstract The precipitation observation data of Baoding National Basic Meteorological Station from 1981 to 2018 were selected to analyze the climatic characteristics of rainstorm weather in Baoding City. The results showed that the average annual rainstorm days in recent 38 years were 1.3 days， which showed a slight downward trend with the change of time. The climatic tendency rate was -0.113 days/10 years. Rainstorms first appeared in May and last in September， concentrated in July-August， and most in July.The average annual rainstorm days were 0.2 days， and the number of rainstorm days tended to decrease slightly in recent 38 years.The average daily maximum rainfall was 68.6 mm， which had been decreasing in recent 38 years. The climatic tendency rate was -1.798 mm/10 years. Rainstorm days and extreme precipitation tended to decrease， which indicated that the climate of Baoding tended to be warm and dry， and ecological protection should be strengthened to actively respond to climate change.

Key words ? Baoding City;Rainstorm weather;Climate characteristics;Analysis

保定市位于華北平原北部，海河流域大清河水系中上游，自古是“北控三關、南達九省”的“通衢之地”，歷史文化深厚，市區內擁有眾多名勝。保定年平均氣溫13.3℃，年降水量496.1 mm，屬溫帶季風性氣候，雨熱同季。暴雨是保定市常見災害性天氣，暴雨區域性強，降水量大、持續時間短，常給社會經濟和人民生命財產安全造成嚴重損失，但暴雨同時也是保定市重要水資源。掌握暴雨氣候特征，可以提前做好防范措施，避免或減輕由于暴雨災害造成的經濟損失，并可趨利避害，有效地利用暴雨為水庫儲水，供給工農業生產用水。

1 資料與方法

選取資料為保定國家基本氣象站1981—2018年近38年的年暴雨日數、年大暴雨日數、極端日最大雨量及月暴雨日數。以日降水量≥50 mm為暴雨，日降水量≥100 mm為大暴雨，日降水量≥250 mm為特大暴雨。文中暴雨日包括大暴雨日和特大暴雨日，大暴雨日包括特大暴雨日。……