基于警情分析的交通預測與研判系統

摘 要：在國家發展與改革委員會、交通運輸部等部門起草的《關于促進智慧城市健康發展的指導意見》中，智能交通被列為十大智慧工程之一，該文件在各地方得到了積極響應，越來越多的城市開始建設智慧城市和智慧交通。由此，本文設想將數據分析與交通警務工作相結合，實現數據支撐下的科學決策，以此提高警務資源分配效率，提升道路交通安全，改善人們的出行體驗。本文首先收集了2016年8月1日至2017年12月31日機場區域所有的報警記錄，通過大量數據的清洗和關鍵詞的提取，將這些記錄轉換為可用于數據分析的結構化數據；進而，本文應用時間序列分析、聚類分析和判別分析對數據進行了挖掘，通過提取時間序列數據，本研究建立了ARIMA（3，1，4）模型，對機場區域每天的事故發生頻率進行擬合和預測；其次，本文針對機場區域的地點，按照事故發生密度進行了聚類，其聚類結果可為警方制定應急方案和巡更計劃提供輔助參考；此外，本文還進行了判別分析，通過對時間、地點和天氣等信息進行擬合來判斷某一時間、某一地點在某一天氣情況下可能發生的交通事故；最后，本文還建立了一套信息系統來實現數據管理和可視化功能。

關鍵詞：數據分析；智慧交通；警務系統

中圖分類號：TP311.13文獻標識碼：A 文章編號：2096-4706（2018）09-0119-03

Abstract：In the guidance of the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Transportation，“the guidance on promoting the healthy development of intelligent cities”，intelligent transportation has been listed as one of the ten great intelligent projects. This document has been actively responded in various places，and more and more cities have begun to build intelligent cities and intelligent traffic. Therefore，this paper conceives the combination of data analysis and traffic police work to achieve scientific decision-making under the support of data，so as to improve the efficiency of police resources distribution，improve road traffic safety and improve people’s travel experience. This paper first collected all the alarm records in the airport area from August 1，2016 to December 31，2017，and converted these records into structured data that could be used for data analysis through a large number of data cleaning and keyword extraction，and then the data were dug with time series analysis，clustering analysis and discriminant analysis. By extracting the time series data， the ARIMA（3，1，4） model is established to fit and predict the frequency of the daily accidents in the airport area. Secondly，this paper cluster the location of the airport area according to the density of the accident occurrence，and the clustering results can make the emergency plan and the patrol plan for the police. In addition，a discriminant analysis is carried out in this paper. By fitting time，location and weather information to judge a possible traffic accident at a certain time and a certain place in a certain weather condition，a set of information system is also established to realize data management and visualization.

Keywords：data analysis；intelligent traffic；police system

0 引 言

隨著信息技術的大力發展和“互聯網+”的不斷推進，完善警務情報收集體系，從以人工判斷為主導過渡到以警務情報信息為主導。……