創(chuàng)業(yè)失敗經(jīng)驗(yàn)與新產(chǎn)品開(kāi)發(fā)績(jī)效的倒U形關(guān)系：創(chuàng)業(yè)導(dǎo)向的多重中介作用

于曉宇，陶向明

上海大學(xué) 管理學(xué)院，上海 200444

創(chuàng)業(yè)失敗經(jīng)驗(yàn)與新產(chǎn)品開(kāi)發(fā)績(jī)效的倒U形關(guān)系：創(chuàng)業(yè)導(dǎo)向的多重中介作用

于曉宇，陶向明

上海大學(xué) 管理學(xué)院，上海 200444

已有研究忽視先前經(jīng)驗(yàn)中創(chuàng)業(yè)失敗經(jīng)驗(yàn)的獨(dú)特價(jià)值，缺乏對(duì)創(chuàng)業(yè)失敗經(jīng)驗(yàn)是否以及如何影響新產(chǎn)品開(kāi)發(fā)績(jī)效的研究。整合經(jīng)驗(yàn)學(xué)習(xí)和認(rèn)知理論，基于231位創(chuàng)業(yè)老手及其新創(chuàng)企業(yè)的經(jīng)驗(yàn)數(shù)據(jù)，使用層次回歸和自助方法檢驗(yàn)創(chuàng)業(yè)失敗經(jīng)驗(yàn)對(duì)新產(chǎn)品開(kāi)發(fā)績(jī)效的影響，同時(shí)探索創(chuàng)業(yè)導(dǎo)向在兩者關(guān)系間的多重中介作用。研究結(jié)果表明，創(chuàng)業(yè)失敗經(jīng)驗(yàn)與新產(chǎn)品開(kāi)發(fā)績(jī)效存在倒U形關(guān)系，創(chuàng)業(yè)失敗經(jīng)驗(yàn)與創(chuàng)業(yè)導(dǎo)向的預(yù)應(yīng)性、創(chuàng)新性和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)承擔(dān)性3個(gè)維度間存在倒U形關(guān)系，創(chuàng)業(yè)導(dǎo)向在創(chuàng)業(yè)失敗經(jīng)驗(yàn)與新產(chǎn)品開(kāi)發(fā)績(jī)效的關(guān)系中起部分中介作用。研究結(jié)果深化了對(duì)創(chuàng)業(yè)情景下失敗經(jīng)驗(yàn)與組織績(jī)效關(guān)系的理解，提出失敗經(jīng)驗(yàn)向新產(chǎn)品開(kāi)發(fā)績(jī)效轉(zhuǎn)化的中間路徑，對(duì)創(chuàng)業(yè)者和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資家有重要的實(shí)踐啟示。

創(chuàng)業(yè)失敗；先前經(jīng)驗(yàn)；創(chuàng)業(yè)導(dǎo)向；新產(chǎn)品開(kāi)發(fā)績(jī)效；創(chuàng)業(yè)老手

1 引言

新產(chǎn)品開(kāi)發(fā)是創(chuàng)業(yè)企業(yè)的核心活動(dòng)，其成敗決定創(chuàng)業(yè)企業(yè)能否生存并取得競(jìng)爭(zhēng)優(yōu)勢(shì)[1]。作為對(duì)未知結(jié)果的實(shí)驗(yàn)[2]，多數(shù)新產(chǎn)品開(kāi)發(fā)最終難逃失敗厄運(yùn)[3]。從經(jīng)驗(yàn)學(xué)習(xí)角度看，創(chuàng)業(yè)者的先前經(jīng)驗(yàn)是創(chuàng)業(yè)企業(yè)新產(chǎn)品開(kāi)發(fā)績(jī)效的決定因素，多項(xiàng)研究[4-6]已證實(shí)先前經(jīng)驗(yàn)有助于新產(chǎn)品開(kāi)發(fā)績(jī)效的提高，但卻混淆了先前經(jīng)驗(yàn)中成功和失敗的經(jīng)驗(yàn)對(duì)新產(chǎn)品開(kāi)發(fā)績(jī)效作用的差異，并且在創(chuàng)業(yè)失敗經(jīng)驗(yàn)與新產(chǎn)品開(kāi)發(fā)績(jī)效關(guān)系的觀點(diǎn)上仍存在爭(zhēng)議。經(jīng)驗(yàn)學(xué)習(xí)理論認(rèn)為，創(chuàng)業(yè)者從之前創(chuàng)業(yè)失敗中的學(xué)習(xí)能增強(qiáng)其創(chuàng)業(yè)能力，并幫助創(chuàng)業(yè)企業(yè)提高其創(chuàng)新能力[7]，尤其是新產(chǎn)品的創(chuàng)新性。然而認(rèn)知理論認(rèn)為，創(chuàng)業(yè)失敗(尤其是多次創(chuàng)業(yè)失敗)帶來(lái)的負(fù)面情緒引發(fā)認(rèn)知困難，導(dǎo)致創(chuàng)業(yè)者形成“無(wú)助感”，對(duì)新產(chǎn)品開(kāi)發(fā)有不利影響[8]。因此，本研究聚焦探索創(chuàng)業(yè)失敗經(jīng)驗(yàn)對(duì)隨后新產(chǎn)品開(kāi)發(fā)績(jī)效的影響，深化對(duì)先前經(jīng)驗(yàn)，尤其是創(chuàng)業(yè)失敗經(jīng)驗(yàn)在隨后創(chuàng)業(yè)活動(dòng)中的角色和作用的理解。

先前經(jīng)驗(yàn)是創(chuàng)業(yè)者的個(gè)體屬性，而新產(chǎn)品開(kāi)發(fā)績(jī)效是企業(yè)層面的重要成果。先前經(jīng)驗(yàn)(包括創(chuàng)業(yè)失敗經(jīng)驗(yàn))對(duì)新產(chǎn)品開(kāi)發(fā)績(jī)效的作用可能是通過(guò)一個(gè)由創(chuàng)業(yè)者塑造的組織層面變量來(lái)傳導(dǎo)。創(chuàng)業(yè)導(dǎo)向是創(chuàng)業(yè)者的創(chuàng)業(yè)精神在組織層面的延伸[9]，創(chuàng)業(yè)導(dǎo)向水平的高低主要由創(chuàng)業(yè)者塑造[10]，并對(duì)包括新產(chǎn)品開(kāi)發(fā)績(jī)效在內(nèi)的組織績(jī)效有顯著影響[11]。人力資本相關(guān)研究表明，作為一種專有性較強(qiáng)的人力資本，先前經(jīng)驗(yàn)(包括創(chuàng)業(yè)失敗經(jīng)驗(yàn))是創(chuàng)業(yè)導(dǎo)向的重要決定因素[12]。因此，本研究同時(shí)檢驗(yàn)創(chuàng)業(yè)導(dǎo)向?qū)?chuàng)業(yè)失敗經(jīng)驗(yàn)與新產(chǎn)品開(kāi)發(fā)績(jī)效之間關(guān)系的中介作用，探索創(chuàng)業(yè)失敗經(jīng)驗(yàn)向新產(chǎn)品開(kāi)發(fā)績(jī)效轉(zhuǎn)化的路徑。

2 相關(guān)研究評(píng)述

2.1 創(chuàng)業(yè)失敗經(jīng)驗(yàn)

由于研究視角的差異以及相關(guān)概念的混淆(如企業(yè)倒閉、資不抵債、企業(yè)破產(chǎn)等)，學(xué)者們對(duì)創(chuàng)業(yè)失敗概念的界定尚未達(dá)成一致[13]。借鑒McGrath[2]的研究，本研究將創(chuàng)業(yè)失敗定義為創(chuàng)業(yè)者未達(dá)到預(yù)期目標(biāo)而對(duì)新企業(yè)的終止。目前，創(chuàng)業(yè)失敗相關(guān)研究主要聚焦于創(chuàng)業(yè)失敗成因(如創(chuàng)業(yè)者性格缺陷[14]和市場(chǎng)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)激烈[15]等)和創(chuàng)業(yè)失敗修復(fù)(如創(chuàng)業(yè)失敗學(xué)習(xí)和后續(xù)創(chuàng)業(yè)意向等[13])等方面，由于數(shù)據(jù)可獲得性等的制約，較少關(guān)注創(chuàng)業(yè)失敗經(jīng)驗(yàn)對(duì)后續(xù)創(chuàng)業(yè)績(jī)效的影響等問(wèn)題[13]。

少數(shù)關(guān)于先前經(jīng)驗(yàn)與隨后績(jī)效關(guān)系的研究主要集中在創(chuàng)業(yè)經(jīng)驗(yàn)的有/無(wú)、時(shí)間長(zhǎng)/短、創(chuàng)業(yè)次數(shù)多/少與新企業(yè)績(jī)效的線性關(guān)系方面[16]，有關(guān)創(chuàng)業(yè)失敗經(jīng)驗(yàn)與新產(chǎn)品開(kāi)發(fā)績(jī)效關(guān)系的研究較為匱乏，且研究結(jié)論存在沖突。基于資源視角的觀點(diǎn)認(rèn)為，創(chuàng)業(yè)失敗經(jīng)驗(yàn)是一種特殊的人力資本，會(huì)對(duì)機(jī)會(huì)識(shí)別、新產(chǎn)品開(kāi)發(fā)績(jī)效產(chǎn)生重要的積極影響[12]。基于學(xué)習(xí)視角的觀點(diǎn)也認(rèn)為，創(chuàng)業(yè)者能從失敗中吸取教訓(xùn)，并在后續(xù)創(chuàng)業(yè)活動(dòng)中表現(xiàn)出更高的主動(dòng)性和更強(qiáng)的創(chuàng)業(yè)能力[17]，提高企業(yè)的新產(chǎn)品開(kāi)發(fā)績(jī)效。然而，基于認(rèn)知和情感視角的觀點(diǎn)則認(rèn)為，創(chuàng)業(yè)失敗會(huì)給創(chuàng)業(yè)者帶來(lái)很高的財(cái)務(wù)成本及負(fù)面情緒(如自尊喪失、情緒緊張和獨(dú)立性喪失等)[18]，給新產(chǎn)品開(kāi)發(fā)績(jī)效帶來(lái)不利影響。此外，已有研究關(guān)于創(chuàng)業(yè)失敗經(jīng)驗(yàn)影響新產(chǎn)品開(kāi)發(fā)績(jī)效的具體路徑仍不清晰。Yamakawa等[19]提出創(chuàng)業(yè)者先前創(chuàng)業(yè)失敗次數(shù)與后續(xù)企業(yè)績(jī)效(含新產(chǎn)品開(kāi)發(fā)績(jī)效)存在倒U形關(guān)系，但結(jié)果卻未通過(guò)實(shí)證檢驗(yàn)。

綜上，已有研究多從單一視角出發(fā)，拘泥于從創(chuàng)業(yè)失敗經(jīng)驗(yàn)到新產(chǎn)品開(kāi)發(fā)績(jī)效的線性邏輯，忽視了從個(gè)體經(jīng)驗(yàn)向組織績(jī)效轉(zhuǎn)化的轉(zhuǎn)換機(jī)制，造成研究結(jié)論時(shí)常對(duì)立。創(chuàng)業(yè)失敗經(jīng)驗(yàn)是否以及如何影響新產(chǎn)品開(kāi)發(fā)績(jī)效有待于整合視角和實(shí)證研究加以闡釋[13]，據(jù)此，本研究整合經(jīng)驗(yàn)學(xué)習(xí)和認(rèn)知理論，檢驗(yàn)創(chuàng)業(yè)失敗經(jīng)驗(yàn)與新產(chǎn)品開(kāi)發(fā)績(jī)效之間的非線性關(guān)系，同時(shí)考察創(chuàng)業(yè)導(dǎo)向在個(gè)體經(jīng)驗(yàn)和組織績(jī)效間的中介作用，彌補(bǔ)以上研究局限和不足。

2.2 創(chuàng)業(yè)導(dǎo)向

創(chuàng)業(yè)導(dǎo)向是指企業(yè)進(jìn)入新業(yè)務(wù)領(lǐng)域所采取的預(yù)應(yīng)性、創(chuàng)新性和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)性的行為與戰(zhàn)略[20]。Miller[10]認(rèn)為創(chuàng)業(yè)導(dǎo)向包括預(yù)應(yīng)性、創(chuàng)新性和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)承擔(dān)性3個(gè)方面。預(yù)應(yīng)性反映企業(yè)按照未來(lái)需求或預(yù)期變化采取行動(dòng)的傾向[21]；創(chuàng)新性反映企業(yè)從事或者支持可能產(chǎn)生新思想、新事物或新技術(shù)的創(chuàng)意和創(chuàng)造活動(dòng)的傾向[9]；風(fēng)險(xiǎn)承擔(dān)性反映企業(yè)在追逐和把握潛在的市場(chǎng)機(jī)會(huì)以及進(jìn)行新產(chǎn)品研發(fā)等活動(dòng)時(shí)，愿意承擔(dān)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的程度[22]。

創(chuàng)業(yè)導(dǎo)向相關(guān)研究主要集中在其與組織績(jī)效的關(guān)系方面，如創(chuàng)業(yè)導(dǎo)向?qū)ζ髽I(yè)績(jī)效的直接影響[23]和組織學(xué)習(xí)[24]等變量對(duì)兩者關(guān)系的中介作用以及領(lǐng)導(dǎo)方式[25]等因素對(duì)兩者關(guān)系的調(diào)節(jié)影響。對(duì)創(chuàng)業(yè)導(dǎo)向前因變量的研究相對(duì)較少且集中在組織及以上層面，如組織文化[26]以及文化與制度[27]等變量，較缺乏對(duì)個(gè)體層面前因變量的研究。根據(jù)認(rèn)知理論，先前經(jīng)驗(yàn)，尤其是失敗經(jīng)驗(yàn)會(huì)影響個(gè)體的認(rèn)知模式和行為方式[28]，進(jìn)而對(duì)企業(yè)的戰(zhàn)略觀念和行為模式(創(chuàng)業(yè)導(dǎo)向)產(chǎn)生影響，因此創(chuàng)業(yè)失敗經(jīng)驗(yàn)可能是塑造創(chuàng)業(yè)導(dǎo)向的決定因素之一。另外，Lumpkin等[9]認(rèn)為構(gòu)成創(chuàng)業(yè)導(dǎo)向的不同維度雖然有一定的相關(guān)性，但也具有相對(duì)的獨(dú)立性。處于不同的產(chǎn)業(yè)狀況和發(fā)展階段時(shí)，企業(yè)往往會(huì)采取不同的創(chuàng)業(yè)導(dǎo)向戰(zhàn)略組合[29]。因此，本研究從認(rèn)知角度探索創(chuàng)業(yè)失敗經(jīng)驗(yàn)對(duì)創(chuàng)業(yè)導(dǎo)向的預(yù)應(yīng)性、創(chuàng)新性和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)承擔(dān)性的影響作用，研究創(chuàng)業(yè)導(dǎo)向的各個(gè)維度在創(chuàng)業(yè)失敗經(jīng)驗(yàn)與新產(chǎn)品開(kāi)發(fā)績(jī)效關(guān)系中的中介作用，進(jìn)一步打開(kāi)創(chuàng)業(yè)失敗經(jīng)驗(yàn)向新產(chǎn)品開(kāi)發(fā)績(jī)效轉(zhuǎn)化過(guò)程的“黑箱”。

3 研究假設(shè)

3.1 創(chuàng)業(yè)失敗經(jīng)驗(yàn)與新產(chǎn)品開(kāi)發(fā)績(jī)效

已有關(guān)于創(chuàng)業(yè)失敗經(jīng)驗(yàn)與新產(chǎn)品開(kāi)發(fā)績(jī)效關(guān)系的研究存在分歧。經(jīng)驗(yàn)學(xué)習(xí)和資源基礎(chǔ)理論認(rèn)為，創(chuàng)業(yè)者過(guò)往的創(chuàng)業(yè)失敗經(jīng)驗(yàn)對(duì)創(chuàng)業(yè)者及其創(chuàng)業(yè)企業(yè)而言都是有價(jià)值、難以模仿的資源[30]。隧道原理認(rèn)為，創(chuàng)業(yè)失敗為創(chuàng)業(yè)者提供了經(jīng)歷企業(yè)創(chuàng)生、生存和退出全部過(guò)程的機(jī)會(huì)，因此有利于其發(fā)現(xiàn)新的商業(yè)機(jī)會(huì)[31]。經(jīng)驗(yàn)學(xué)習(xí)認(rèn)為，經(jīng)歷創(chuàng)業(yè)失敗使創(chuàng)業(yè)者深刻反省先前的創(chuàng)業(yè)機(jī)會(huì)、企業(yè)管理和外部環(huán)境，有助于在隨后創(chuàng)業(yè)過(guò)程提升企業(yè)運(yùn)營(yíng)效率[32]。無(wú)論是發(fā)現(xiàn)新商業(yè)機(jī)會(huì)(決定新產(chǎn)品的質(zhì)量)，還是提升企業(yè)運(yùn)營(yíng)效率(決定新產(chǎn)品推出的速度)，都有利于提升創(chuàng)業(yè)企業(yè)的新產(chǎn)品開(kāi)發(fā)績(jī)效。然而，應(yīng)對(duì)理論認(rèn)為，創(chuàng)業(yè)失敗是令人痛苦和極具破壞性的負(fù)面經(jīng)歷[18]，除造成經(jīng)濟(jì)損失外，還會(huì)阻礙創(chuàng)業(yè)者的認(rèn)知過(guò)程，影響他們理性決策的能力[4]，給新產(chǎn)品開(kāi)發(fā)績(jī)效帶來(lái)負(fù)面影響[33]。

事實(shí)上，以上兩個(gè)觀點(diǎn)并不對(duì)立，不同的創(chuàng)業(yè)失敗經(jīng)驗(yàn)水平可能會(huì)對(duì)新產(chǎn)品開(kāi)發(fā)績(jī)效產(chǎn)生不同的影響。Baron等[33]認(rèn)為，經(jīng)驗(yàn)對(duì)績(jī)效的作用存在閾值，當(dāng)失敗經(jīng)驗(yàn)超出某一臨界值時(shí)，失敗次數(shù)的增加并不一定會(huì)正向影響其隨后績(jī)效[19]。具體而言，創(chuàng)業(yè)失敗經(jīng)驗(yàn)與新產(chǎn)品開(kāi)發(fā)績(jī)效之間可能存在倒U形關(guān)系，即當(dāng)創(chuàng)業(yè)失敗經(jīng)驗(yàn)較少時(shí)，創(chuàng)業(yè)者可能從創(chuàng)業(yè)失敗中獲得更多知識(shí)和激勵(lì)[2]，在對(duì)創(chuàng)業(yè)失敗的反省中發(fā)展出獨(dú)特的機(jī)會(huì)識(shí)別能力，進(jìn)而提高隨后創(chuàng)業(yè)過(guò)程中的新產(chǎn)品開(kāi)發(fā)績(jī)效。Ucbasaran等[34]用來(lái)自英國(guó)的企業(yè)數(shù)據(jù)發(fā)現(xiàn)，經(jīng)歷過(guò)完整創(chuàng)業(yè)失敗過(guò)程的創(chuàng)業(yè)者更可能發(fā)現(xiàn)新的商機(jī)。然而，如果創(chuàng)業(yè)者經(jīng)歷太多創(chuàng)業(yè)失敗，則非常可能因此消沉并降低自信水平[4]，削弱創(chuàng)業(yè)者的認(rèn)知能力和學(xué)習(xí)成效[19]，決策也更加趨于保守[32]，這一系列變化會(huì)降低其隨后創(chuàng)業(yè)企業(yè)的新產(chǎn)品開(kāi)發(fā)績(jī)效。Brunstein等[35]研究發(fā)現(xiàn)，創(chuàng)業(yè)失敗次數(shù)越多，創(chuàng)業(yè)者的自信水平越低，越會(huì)降低其機(jī)會(huì)識(shí)別能力和企業(yè)的新產(chǎn)品開(kāi)發(fā)績(jī)效。綜上，當(dāng)創(chuàng)業(yè)失敗經(jīng)驗(yàn)超過(guò)某一個(gè)水平，創(chuàng)業(yè)失敗經(jīng)驗(yàn)帶來(lái)的弊端將超過(guò)其價(jià)值，而在這一水平之前，創(chuàng)業(yè)失敗經(jīng)驗(yàn)所帶來(lái)的價(jià)值遠(yuǎn)大于其弊端。據(jù)此，本研究提出假設(shè)。

H1創(chuàng)業(yè)者先前創(chuàng)業(yè)失敗經(jīng)驗(yàn)與當(dāng)前企業(yè)的新產(chǎn)品開(kāi)發(fā)績(jī)效存在倒U形關(guān)系。

3.2 創(chuàng)業(yè)失敗經(jīng)驗(yàn)與創(chuàng)業(yè)導(dǎo)向

經(jīng)驗(yàn)學(xué)習(xí)理論認(rèn)為，當(dāng)失敗經(jīng)歷較少時(shí)，由其引發(fā)的消極情緒會(huì)刺激創(chuàng)業(yè)者不斷搜索、學(xué)習(xí)和適應(yīng)，促使創(chuàng)業(yè)者更加客觀地認(rèn)識(shí)創(chuàng)業(yè)難度，反省自己的不足，做出更大努力[36]，變得更加主動(dòng)地迎接挑戰(zhàn)、克服困難[2]，進(jìn)而促使企業(yè)更加主動(dòng)地應(yīng)對(duì)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)并保持先發(fā)優(yōu)勢(shì)。然而，當(dāng)經(jīng)歷過(guò)多失敗后，創(chuàng)業(yè)者可能會(huì)失去信心，不愿對(duì)抗逆境[35]，被動(dòng)應(yīng)對(duì)創(chuàng)業(yè)過(guò)程中的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)和挑戰(zhàn)。進(jìn)一步，Ucbasaran等[34]認(rèn)為如果創(chuàng)業(yè)者視某次創(chuàng)業(yè)失敗經(jīng)歷為異常現(xiàn)象時(shí)，仍會(huì)對(duì)自身能力保持信心，但遭遇過(guò)多的創(chuàng)業(yè)失敗，創(chuàng)業(yè)者的主動(dòng)性會(huì)減弱，創(chuàng)業(yè)者會(huì)變得更加被動(dòng)，不愿接受富有挑戰(zhàn)性的任務(wù)，致使企業(yè)難以主動(dòng)預(yù)測(cè)或者響應(yīng)環(huán)境變化。據(jù)此，本研究提出假設(shè)。

H2創(chuàng)業(yè)失敗經(jīng)驗(yàn)與當(dāng)前企業(yè)的預(yù)應(yīng)性存在倒U形關(guān)系。

與成功經(jīng)驗(yàn)相比，失敗經(jīng)驗(yàn)更能激勵(lì)組織成員搜尋新的解決問(wèn)題方法，挑戰(zhàn)舊觀念并實(shí)現(xiàn)創(chuàng)新[37]。當(dāng)失敗經(jīng)歷較少時(shí)，創(chuàng)業(yè)者能夠保持創(chuàng)新自我效能感[38]，已有研究證實(shí)創(chuàng)新自我效能感與創(chuàng)新性傾向和創(chuàng)新行動(dòng)顯著正相關(guān)[39]，此時(shí)會(huì)促使企業(yè)探索解決問(wèn)題的新方法并保持創(chuàng)新投入。然而，失敗經(jīng)驗(yàn)增加到一定程度將會(huì)降低創(chuàng)業(yè)者的自我效能感[4]，導(dǎo)致其在認(rèn)知結(jié)構(gòu)和洞察力方面形成慣性[40]，制約其獲取新信息和新想法能力的發(fā)揮[34]，限制其參與突破性的創(chuàng)新活動(dòng)[41]，給企業(yè)的創(chuàng)新性傾向帶來(lái)不利影響。據(jù)此，本研究提出假設(shè)。

H3創(chuàng)業(yè)失敗經(jīng)驗(yàn)與當(dāng)前企業(yè)的創(chuàng)新性存在倒U形關(guān)系。

企業(yè)行為理論認(rèn)為，創(chuàng)業(yè)企業(yè)在面對(duì)失敗情景時(shí)往往會(huì)有兩種不同的行為反應(yīng)[42]，一類是采取偏好風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的行為，如向創(chuàng)新活動(dòng)投入更多的資源并愿意承擔(dān)相應(yīng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)；另一類則是采取規(guī)避風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的行為，如減少對(duì)創(chuàng)新活動(dòng)的資源投入[42]。不同的行為反應(yīng)取決于創(chuàng)業(yè)者對(duì)創(chuàng)業(yè)失敗的認(rèn)知[43]，當(dāng)創(chuàng)業(yè)者的失敗經(jīng)歷較少時(shí)，創(chuàng)業(yè)者很難調(diào)整自身的認(rèn)知偏見(jiàn)，如過(guò)度自信和熟悉偏差等，因此更可能將創(chuàng)業(yè)失敗解釋為可解決的問(wèn)題，并據(jù)此選擇更加冒險(xiǎn)的方式再次創(chuàng)業(yè)[44]。由創(chuàng)業(yè)失敗經(jīng)歷導(dǎo)致的這一風(fēng)險(xiǎn)疊加效應(yīng)常用來(lái)解釋賭徒困境，可能導(dǎo)致創(chuàng)業(yè)者低估環(huán)境競(jìng)爭(zhēng)性[45]，并在隨后創(chuàng)業(yè)過(guò)程中再次失敗。但隨著創(chuàng)業(yè)失敗經(jīng)驗(yàn)的積累，創(chuàng)業(yè)者解決困難和挑戰(zhàn)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的信心會(huì)有一定程度的減弱[34]，致使其高估失敗事件發(fā)生的概率并認(rèn)為過(guò)去的失敗很有可能再度發(fā)生，使創(chuàng)業(yè)者及其企業(yè)將失敗情景視為企業(yè)生存的威脅，由選擇偏好風(fēng)險(xiǎn)行為轉(zhuǎn)變成規(guī)避風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的行為[44]，做出更加保守的決策，最終導(dǎo)致創(chuàng)業(yè)企業(yè)承擔(dān)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)傾向降低。據(jù)此，本研究提出假設(shè)。

H4創(chuàng)業(yè)失敗經(jīng)驗(yàn)與當(dāng)前企業(yè)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)承擔(dān)性存在倒U形關(guān)系。

3.3 創(chuàng)業(yè)導(dǎo)向的中介作用

大量研究檢驗(yàn)了創(chuàng)業(yè)導(dǎo)向各維度對(duì)企業(yè)績(jī)效和新產(chǎn)品開(kāi)發(fā)績(jī)效有正向影響[9,25,39]。預(yù)應(yīng)性較高的企業(yè)能把握未來(lái)市場(chǎng)的變化趨勢(shì)，識(shí)別市場(chǎng)的潛在需求，比競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手更早地提供滿足顧客偏好的新產(chǎn)品或新服務(wù)，更可能獲得構(gòu)筑新產(chǎn)品開(kāi)發(fā)的先發(fā)優(yōu)勢(shì)，取得市場(chǎng)領(lǐng)先地位[46]，并提高新產(chǎn)品開(kāi)發(fā)績(jī)效。Lumpkin等[9]認(rèn)為，創(chuàng)新性水平高的企業(yè)能夠通過(guò)產(chǎn)品創(chuàng)新、市場(chǎng)創(chuàng)新、技術(shù)創(chuàng)新和管理創(chuàng)新等方式獲得競(jìng)爭(zhēng)優(yōu)勢(shì)和企業(yè)發(fā)展所需資源，主動(dòng)搜尋和創(chuàng)造新的商業(yè)機(jī)會(huì)，提高企業(yè)的市場(chǎng)運(yùn)營(yíng)能力、利潤(rùn)率和新產(chǎn)品開(kāi)發(fā)績(jī)效。風(fēng)險(xiǎn)承擔(dān)性較高的創(chuàng)業(yè)企業(yè)能夠在細(xì)分市場(chǎng)定位和提供高價(jià)產(chǎn)品上戰(zhàn)勝競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手，并針對(duì)市場(chǎng)的變化快速做出反應(yīng)，從新機(jī)會(huì)中獲益[11]。

新創(chuàng)企業(yè)是創(chuàng)業(yè)者創(chuàng)業(yè)行為的結(jié)果，其行為決策更多依賴于創(chuàng)業(yè)者個(gè)體認(rèn)知和行為的塑造，很少采用規(guī)范和理性的分析[47]，Schein[48]進(jìn)一步指出創(chuàng)業(yè)者的思想和行為很大程度上影響了企業(yè)的戰(zhàn)略導(dǎo)向。因此，創(chuàng)業(yè)者個(gè)體的創(chuàng)業(yè)失敗經(jīng)驗(yàn)通過(guò)影響創(chuàng)業(yè)者的認(rèn)知模式、決策過(guò)程和行為方式[28]，進(jìn)而影響企業(yè)的戰(zhàn)略導(dǎo)向，尤其是企業(yè)創(chuàng)業(yè)導(dǎo)向的水平。創(chuàng)業(yè)導(dǎo)向是創(chuàng)業(yè)者精神在組織層面的延伸[9]，一般會(huì)正向影響創(chuàng)業(yè)企業(yè)的組織績(jī)效，尤其是新產(chǎn)品開(kāi)發(fā)績(jī)效[11,25]。因此，創(chuàng)業(yè)失敗經(jīng)驗(yàn)對(duì)新產(chǎn)品開(kāi)發(fā)績(jī)效的影響可能部分是通過(guò)由創(chuàng)業(yè)者塑造的創(chuàng)業(yè)導(dǎo)向傳導(dǎo)，即創(chuàng)業(yè)失敗經(jīng)驗(yàn)通過(guò)倒U形關(guān)系影響創(chuàng)業(yè)導(dǎo)向3個(gè)維度，并通過(guò)創(chuàng)業(yè)導(dǎo)向3個(gè)維度的部分中介作用影響新產(chǎn)品開(kāi)發(fā)績(jī)效。因此，本研究提出假設(shè)。

H5創(chuàng)業(yè)導(dǎo)向在創(chuàng)業(yè)失敗經(jīng)驗(yàn)與新產(chǎn)品開(kāi)發(fā)績(jī)效間起部分中介作用。

H5a預(yù)應(yīng)性在創(chuàng)業(yè)失敗經(jīng)驗(yàn)與新產(chǎn)品開(kāi)發(fā)績(jī)效間起部分中介作用；

H5b創(chuàng)新性在創(chuàng)業(yè)失敗經(jīng)驗(yàn)與新產(chǎn)品開(kāi)發(fā)績(jī)效間起部分中介作用；

H5c風(fēng)險(xiǎn)承擔(dān)性在創(chuàng)業(yè)失敗經(jīng)驗(yàn)與新產(chǎn)品開(kāi)發(fā)績(jī)效間起部分中介作用。

綜合研究假設(shè)，本研究提出理論模型，見(jiàn)圖1。

4 研究方法

4.1 樣本和數(shù)據(jù)

4.1.1 數(shù)據(jù)收集

本研究選擇高新技術(shù)新創(chuàng)企業(yè)為研究對(duì)象，將新創(chuàng)企業(yè)界定為成立時(shí)間不超過(guò)8年的企業(yè)[49]，同時(shí)根據(jù)Li等[50]的甄別標(biāo)準(zhǔn)選取樣本企業(yè)。①創(chuàng)始團(tuán)隊(duì)有研發(fā)或工程技術(shù)人員；②30%或以上員工是技術(shù)人員；③3%以上銷(xiāo)售收入用于研發(fā)。設(shè)定高新技術(shù)新創(chuàng)企業(yè)作為研究對(duì)象的主要原因在于，高新技術(shù)企業(yè)熱衷于開(kāi)發(fā)新產(chǎn)品，與非高新技術(shù)企業(yè)相比，往往會(huì)遭遇更多的失敗[51]。在正式調(diào)研之前，本研究采用回譯方法以確保對(duì)原始量表翻譯的準(zhǔn)確性，并對(duì)來(lái)自15家高科技企業(yè)的CEO進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè)試，參照他們的反饋意見(jiàn)對(duì)量表題項(xiàng)的語(yǔ)言表達(dá)進(jìn)行修飾和調(diào)整，盡量保證量表的內(nèi)容效度。

圖1 理論模型Figure 1 Conceptual Model

本研究采取分層隨機(jī)抽樣方法，從2013年9月至11月在北京、上海、杭州等高科技企業(yè)分布集中的城市抽取500家樣本企業(yè)，并采用現(xiàn)場(chǎng)訪談的方式，對(duì)受訪企業(yè)的總經(jīng)理、副總經(jīng)理或CEO進(jìn)行問(wèn)卷調(diào)查，回收有效樣本427份，有效回收率為85.400%。由于不同類型的創(chuàng)業(yè)者(如創(chuàng)業(yè)新手和創(chuàng)業(yè)老手[36])的創(chuàng)業(yè)失敗經(jīng)驗(yàn)可能對(duì)研究結(jié)論存在不同影響，本研究參照Ucbasaran等[34]的研究?jī)H保留其中由創(chuàng)業(yè)老手(即受訪者中創(chuàng)業(yè)次數(shù)大于1的創(chuàng)業(yè)者)填寫(xiě)的231份問(wèn)卷作為最終研究樣本。

4.1.2 樣本概況

樣本特征情況見(jiàn)表1。在受訪者中，男性居多，占68.831%；40歲以下的占比較大，為83.550%；擁有本科和碩士學(xué)歷的居多，分別占64.069%和22.944%。樣本企業(yè)中，企業(yè)年齡在3年～4年的占比最大，為45.022%；產(chǎn)權(quán)類型上，私營(yíng)企業(yè)和合資企業(yè)較多，分別占61.905%和21.645%；企業(yè)規(guī)模大都在50人以下，這一比例為79.653%。總體來(lái)看，樣本分布較為廣泛，具有一定代表性。

4.2 變量和測(cè)量

(1)新產(chǎn)品開(kāi)發(fā)績(jī)效。借鑒Zhang等[49]在中國(guó)情景下對(duì)高新技術(shù)新創(chuàng)企業(yè)研究時(shí)使用的Likert 5點(diǎn)量表，本研究請(qǐng)創(chuàng)業(yè)者評(píng)估企業(yè)在持續(xù)推進(jìn)新產(chǎn)品、率先引入新產(chǎn)品、迅速發(fā)布新產(chǎn)品等5個(gè)方面與主要競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手相比的成功程度，用以度量新產(chǎn)品開(kāi)發(fā)績(jī)效，該量表關(guān)注創(chuàng)新質(zhì)量和速度，被廣泛應(yīng)用于中國(guó)高科技企業(yè)的相關(guān)研究，具有較好的外部效度。

(2)創(chuàng)業(yè)失敗經(jīng)驗(yàn)。借鑒Ucbasaran等[34]的研究，本研究請(qǐng)創(chuàng)業(yè)者分別回答之前因未能實(shí)現(xiàn)創(chuàng)業(yè)目標(biāo)或期望而終止企業(yè)的數(shù)量(即創(chuàng)業(yè)失敗次數(shù))和自己創(chuàng)建或收購(gòu)企業(yè)的數(shù)量(即總的創(chuàng)業(yè)次數(shù))。由于創(chuàng)業(yè)老手的創(chuàng)業(yè)經(jīng)歷(如創(chuàng)業(yè)次數(shù))和創(chuàng)業(yè)失敗經(jīng)歷均存在差異(如創(chuàng)業(yè)失敗次數(shù)和創(chuàng)業(yè)失敗成本均不同等)，為提高創(chuàng)業(yè)失敗經(jīng)驗(yàn)對(duì)新產(chǎn)品開(kāi)發(fā)績(jī)效的解釋效力，本研究用創(chuàng)業(yè)失敗次數(shù)占總的創(chuàng)業(yè)次數(shù)的比率測(cè)量創(chuàng)業(yè)失敗經(jīng)驗(yàn)[34,52]，并對(duì)該比率進(jìn)行平方化處理。在進(jìn)行回歸分析之前對(duì)創(chuàng)業(yè)失敗經(jīng)驗(yàn)及其平方項(xiàng)進(jìn)行中心化處理，以檢驗(yàn)其與新產(chǎn)品開(kāi)發(fā)績(jī)效的非線性關(guān)系。另外，穩(wěn)健性檢驗(yàn)結(jié)果顯示，創(chuàng)業(yè)失敗經(jīng)驗(yàn)立方項(xiàng)與新產(chǎn)品開(kāi)發(fā)績(jī)效不存在顯著關(guān)系，β=0.950，p=0.614。

(3)創(chuàng)業(yè)導(dǎo)向。本研究采用Miller[10]的3維度分類框架和De Clercq等[53]的7題項(xiàng)量表測(cè)量創(chuàng)業(yè)導(dǎo)向，分別測(cè)量作為獨(dú)立變量的新創(chuàng)企業(yè)的預(yù)應(yīng)性、創(chuàng)新性和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)承擔(dān)性。所有題項(xiàng)均采用Likert 7點(diǎn)量表，1為非常不同意，7為非常同意。本研究設(shè)置部分逆向題，如我們公司通常實(shí)施那些已被證明是可行的辦法等，在數(shù)據(jù)收集后對(duì)逆向題項(xiàng)進(jìn)行重新編碼，然后分別將上述3個(gè)維度的相關(guān)題項(xiàng)得分匯總后求均值來(lái)代表對(duì)應(yīng)構(gòu)念。

(4)控制變量。根據(jù)人力資本相關(guān)研究，教育程度、性別和年齡等人力資本構(gòu)成要素會(huì)對(duì)新產(chǎn)品開(kāi)發(fā)績(jī)效產(chǎn)生影響[12]；另外，企業(yè)生命周期理論認(rèn)為，企業(yè)年齡、企業(yè)規(guī)模和產(chǎn)權(quán)類型等變量也會(huì)影響新產(chǎn)品開(kāi)發(fā)績(jī)效[42]。本研究將以上要素作為控制變量，企業(yè)年齡用企業(yè)注冊(cè)之日至問(wèn)卷回收之日的年限差測(cè)量，企業(yè)規(guī)模通過(guò)計(jì)算全職員工人數(shù)的自然對(duì)數(shù)獲得。

表1 樣本特征統(tǒng)計(jì)Table 1 Statistics of the Sample Characteristics

表2 變量的信度、效度和驗(yàn)證性因子分析結(jié)果Table 2 Analysis Results of Reliability, Validity and Confirmatory Factor Analysis of Variables

注：a為固定因子載荷值。

4.3 信度和效度

4.3.1 信度

本研究通過(guò)檢驗(yàn)內(nèi)部一致性系數(shù)和相應(yīng)構(gòu)念的載荷值來(lái)評(píng)估量表的信度。在調(diào)查研究中，一般以Cronbach′sα系數(shù)作為測(cè)量量表內(nèi)部一致性的重要標(biāo)準(zhǔn)，當(dāng)Cronbach′sα系數(shù)大于0.700時(shí)說(shuō)明量表達(dá)到一定的信度標(biāo)準(zhǔn)[54]。表2給出變量的信度檢驗(yàn)結(jié)果，數(shù)據(jù)顯示本研究變量的Cronbach′sα系數(shù)均在0.700以上，變量的組合信度(CR)值都高于門(mén)檻值0.600，因此量表的信度較好。

4.3.2 效度

4.4 共同方法偏差

大部分采用感知數(shù)據(jù)測(cè)量自變量和因變量的研究都可能產(chǎn)生共同方法偏差的問(wèn)題， 借鑒Podsakoff等[56]的建議，本研究采取程序和統(tǒng)計(jì)控制的方法來(lái)降低共同偏差。在程序上，采用多題項(xiàng)方式測(cè)量構(gòu)念，將預(yù)測(cè)變量和校標(biāo)變量放在問(wèn)卷的不同位置[57]，以降低出現(xiàn)共同方法偏差的概率。在統(tǒng)計(jì)控制上，由于Harman單因子檢驗(yàn)方法的假設(shè)前提存在明顯缺陷，而且沒(méi)有任何控制方法效應(yīng)的作用，本研究采用驗(yàn)證性因子分析檢驗(yàn)共同方法偏差，可以對(duì)單一因子解釋了所有的變異這一假設(shè)做出更為精確的檢驗(yàn)[58]。如果共同方法偏差很?chē)?yán)重，那么單因子會(huì)解釋所有顯變量。采用巢狀模型比較單因子模型和測(cè)量模型的擬合優(yōu)度(在測(cè)量模型中將所有協(xié)方差路徑系數(shù)設(shè)為1，即為單因子模型)，發(fā)現(xiàn)單因子模型的擬合優(yōu)度(χ2=82.843，df=54)與表2顯示的測(cè)量模型的擬合優(yōu)度(χ2=64.268，df=48)相比較差，說(shuō)明共同方法偏差不會(huì)影響本研究的數(shù)據(jù)結(jié)果。

5 分析和結(jié)果

5.1 相關(guān)統(tǒng)計(jì)分析

表3給出所有變量的均值、標(biāo)準(zhǔn)差、相關(guān)系數(shù)以及中介變量和因變量的AVE值的平方根。

表3 描述性統(tǒng)計(jì)和相關(guān)系數(shù)矩陣Table 3 Descriptive Statistics and Correlation Matrix

注：***為p<0.001，**為p<0.010，*為p<0.050，?為p<0.100，樣本量為231，下同；虛擬變量企業(yè)產(chǎn)權(quán)類型以國(guó)有企業(yè)為參照組；對(duì)角線以下數(shù)據(jù)為相關(guān)系數(shù)，對(duì)角線上數(shù)據(jù)為AVE值的平方根，用黑體表示。

由表3可知，各變量的描述性統(tǒng)計(jì)和相關(guān)系數(shù)均無(wú)異常現(xiàn)象。其中，個(gè)人年齡(r=0.164,p<0.050)、合資企業(yè)(r=0.152,p<0.050)、創(chuàng)業(yè)失敗經(jīng)驗(yàn)(r=0.200,p<0.010)、預(yù)應(yīng)性導(dǎo)向(r=0.408,p<0.001)、創(chuàng)新性導(dǎo)向(r=0.439,p<0.001)和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)承擔(dān)性導(dǎo)向(r=0.407,p<0.001)均與新產(chǎn)品開(kāi)發(fā)績(jī)效顯著正相關(guān)。創(chuàng)業(yè)失敗經(jīng)驗(yàn)與預(yù)應(yīng)性導(dǎo)向(r=0.240,p<0.001)、創(chuàng)新性導(dǎo)向(r=0.029,p<0.001)和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)承擔(dān)性導(dǎo)向(r=0.142,p<0.050)存在顯著相關(guān)性。

為消除研究領(lǐng)域里常見(jiàn)的由一次項(xiàng)和其平方項(xiàng)的高相關(guān)性引發(fā)的多重共線性問(wèn)題，本研究采取兩種解決方法。其一，借鑒耿紫珍等[59]的研究，對(duì)本研究中涉及到平方項(xiàng)的所有變量進(jìn)行均值中心化；其二，應(yīng)用殘差中心化程序[60]解決一次項(xiàng)(即創(chuàng)業(yè)失敗經(jīng)驗(yàn))及其平方項(xiàng)(創(chuàng)業(yè)失敗經(jīng)驗(yàn)平方項(xiàng))的多重共線性問(wèn)題，即用一次項(xiàng)對(duì)平方項(xiàng)回歸后產(chǎn)生的殘差值代替原來(lái)的二次項(xiàng)用于數(shù)據(jù)處理。數(shù)據(jù)處理結(jié)果顯示，整個(gè)模型的方差膨脹因子(VIF)小于2，而且所有變量間的相關(guān)系數(shù)均小于0.700的臨界值[22]。因此，本研究不存在嚴(yán)重的多重共線性問(wèn)題。

5.2 層級(jí)回歸分析

本研究使用SPSS 17.0軟件，采用層級(jí)回歸對(duì)假設(shè)進(jìn)行檢驗(yàn)，結(jié)果見(jiàn)表4。模型1為控制變量對(duì)新產(chǎn)品開(kāi)發(fā)績(jī)效的回歸模型，模型2為控制變量和自變量對(duì)新產(chǎn)品開(kāi)發(fā)績(jī)效的主效應(yīng)模型，模型3為加入中介變量的全模型，模型4～模型6分別為檢驗(yàn)自變量對(duì)中介變量的回歸模型。

表4 新產(chǎn)品開(kāi)發(fā)績(jī)效的層次回歸分析結(jié)果Table 4 Analysis Results of Hierarchical Linear Regression Relating to New Product Development Performance

注：表中數(shù)據(jù)為標(biāo)準(zhǔn)化回歸系數(shù)。

圖2 創(chuàng)業(yè)失敗經(jīng)驗(yàn)與新產(chǎn)品開(kāi)發(fā)績(jī)效的倒U形關(guān)系圖Figure 2 The Inverted U-Shape Relationship between Entrepreneurial Failure Experience and New Product Development Performance

模型4、模型5和模型6的回歸結(jié)果表明，創(chuàng)業(yè)失敗經(jīng)驗(yàn)平方項(xiàng)與預(yù)應(yīng)性顯著負(fù)相關(guān)，β=-0.228,p<0.001，說(shuō)明創(chuàng)業(yè)失敗經(jīng)驗(yàn)與預(yù)應(yīng)性存在倒U形關(guān)系，H2得到驗(yàn)證；創(chuàng)業(yè)失敗經(jīng)驗(yàn)平方項(xiàng)與創(chuàng)新性顯著負(fù)相關(guān)，β=-0.146,p<0.050，說(shuō)明創(chuàng)業(yè)失敗經(jīng)驗(yàn)與創(chuàng)新性導(dǎo)向存在倒U形關(guān)系，H3得到驗(yàn)證；創(chuàng)業(yè)失敗經(jīng)驗(yàn)平方項(xiàng)與風(fēng)險(xiǎn)承擔(dān)性也顯著負(fù)相關(guān)，β=-0.147,p<0.050，說(shuō)明創(chuàng)業(yè)失敗經(jīng)驗(yàn)與風(fēng)險(xiǎn)承擔(dān)性導(dǎo)向存在倒U形關(guān)系，H4得到驗(yàn)證。

另外，由模型3的回歸結(jié)果可知，預(yù)應(yīng)性(β=0.184,p<0.010)、創(chuàng)新性(β=0.269,p<0.001)和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)承擔(dān)性(β=0.213,p<0.001)都與新產(chǎn)品開(kāi)發(fā)績(jī)效顯著正相關(guān)，而創(chuàng)業(yè)失敗經(jīng)驗(yàn)平方項(xiàng)對(duì)新產(chǎn)品開(kāi)發(fā)績(jī)效的影響依舊顯著(β=-0.162,p<0.010)，但是與模型2相比，其標(biāo)準(zhǔn)化回歸系數(shù)的絕對(duì)值變小。根據(jù)Baron等[62]檢驗(yàn)中介效應(yīng)的三步驟原則可知，預(yù)應(yīng)性、創(chuàng)新性和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)承擔(dān)性分別在創(chuàng)業(yè)失敗經(jīng)驗(yàn)與新產(chǎn)品開(kāi)發(fā)績(jī)效的倒U形關(guān)系中發(fā)揮部分中介作用，H5a、H5b和H5c得到驗(yàn)證。

5.3 多重中介作用分析

Hayes等[63]認(rèn)為，Baron等[62]檢驗(yàn)中介效應(yīng)的方法可能會(huì)歪曲路徑中的倒U形關(guān)系，無(wú)法清晰揭示第三方變量在該自變量與因變量關(guān)系中的中介效應(yīng)。因此，本研究同時(shí)采用Preacher等[64]推薦的bootstrapping方法驗(yàn)證本研究假設(shè)，用該方法進(jìn)行模型參數(shù)估計(jì)，尤其是進(jìn)行多重中介研究時(shí)更穩(wěn)健，能有效降低第Ⅰ類錯(cuò)誤[58]。據(jù)此，本研究使用SPSS 17.0軟件和Preacher等[64]提供的SPSS宏，將樣本數(shù)量設(shè)置為5 000，置信區(qū)間設(shè)置為95%，對(duì)本研究的理論模型進(jìn)行進(jìn)一步檢驗(yàn)。

bootstrapping檢驗(yàn)結(jié)果見(jiàn)表5。創(chuàng)業(yè)失敗經(jīng)驗(yàn)的平方項(xiàng)對(duì)新產(chǎn)品開(kāi)發(fā)績(jī)效存在顯著的負(fù)向影響，β=-0.275,p<0.001，表明創(chuàng)業(yè)失敗經(jīng)驗(yàn)與新產(chǎn)品開(kāi)發(fā)績(jī)效存在倒U形關(guān)系，H1得到驗(yàn)證；創(chuàng)業(yè)失敗經(jīng)驗(yàn)平方項(xiàng)分別與預(yù)應(yīng)性(β=-0.229,p<0.001)、創(chuàng)新性(β=-0.146,p<0.050)和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)承擔(dān)性(β=-0.147,p<0.050)顯著負(fù)相關(guān)，H2、H3和H4均得到驗(yàn)證。結(jié)果進(jìn)一步驗(yàn)證了層級(jí)回歸分析的結(jié)論，增強(qiáng)了結(jié)論的穩(wěn)健性和可靠性。

中介效應(yīng)檢驗(yàn)結(jié)果見(jiàn)表6。創(chuàng)業(yè)失敗經(jīng)驗(yàn)對(duì)新產(chǎn)品開(kāi)發(fā)績(jī)效的總的間接效應(yīng)為-0.042(a1b1)-0.039(a2b2)-0.031(a3b3)=-0.112，偏差矯正與增進(jìn)95% bootstrapping置信區(qū)間為[-0.209,-0.039]，置信區(qū)間不包括零，表明總的間接效應(yīng)顯著[65]。另外，由表6可知，各中介效應(yīng)值如下。預(yù)應(yīng)性的中介效應(yīng)為a1b1=-0.042,z=-2.254,p<0.050，偏差矯正與增進(jìn)95% bootstrapping置信區(qū)間為[-0.096,-0.010]，置信區(qū)間不包括零，表明預(yù)應(yīng)性的中介效應(yīng)顯著，H5a得到驗(yàn)證；創(chuàng)新性的中介效應(yīng)為a2b2=-0.039，z=-1.999,p<0.050，偏差矯正與增進(jìn)95% bootstrapping置信區(qū)間為[-0.105,-0.005]，置信區(qū)間不包括零，表明創(chuàng)新性的中介效應(yīng)顯著，H5b得到驗(yàn)證；風(fēng)險(xiǎn)承擔(dān)性的中介效應(yīng)為a3b3=-0.031,z=-1.875,p<0.100，偏差矯正與增進(jìn)95% bootstrapping置信區(qū)間為[-0.086,-0.005]，置信區(qū)間不包括零，表明風(fēng)險(xiǎn)承擔(dān)性的中介效應(yīng)顯著，H5c得到驗(yàn)證。

表5 Bootstrapping檢驗(yàn)結(jié)果Table 5 Analysis Results of Bootstrapping

注：bootstrapping樣本量為5 000，下同。

表6 預(yù)應(yīng)性、創(chuàng)新性和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)承擔(dān)性對(duì)創(chuàng)業(yè)失敗經(jīng)驗(yàn)與新產(chǎn)品開(kāi)發(fā)績(jī)效的中介效應(yīng)Table 6 Mediating Effects of Proactiveness, Innovativeness and Risk-taking between Entrepreneurial Failure Experience and New Product Development Performance

另外，根據(jù)表6的中介效應(yīng)對(duì)比結(jié)果可知，預(yù)應(yīng)性和創(chuàng)新性對(duì)比效應(yīng)的偏差矯正與增進(jìn)95% bootstrapping置信區(qū)間為[-0.063,0.071]，置信區(qū)間包括零。因此，預(yù)應(yīng)性和創(chuàng)新性的中介作用無(wú)顯著差異。而預(yù)應(yīng)性和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)承擔(dān)性對(duì)比效應(yīng)的偏差矯正與增進(jìn)95% bootstrapping置信區(qū)間為[-0.065,0.042]，置信區(qū)間包括零。因此，預(yù)應(yīng)性和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)承擔(dān)性所起到的中介作用也沒(méi)有顯著差異。最后，創(chuàng)新性和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)承擔(dān)性對(duì)比效應(yīng)的偏差矯正與增進(jìn)95% bootstrapping置信區(qū)間為[-0.074,0.046]，置信區(qū)間包括零。因此，創(chuàng)新性和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)承擔(dān)性的中介作用也沒(méi)有顯著差異。綜上，預(yù)應(yīng)性、創(chuàng)新性和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)承擔(dān)性在創(chuàng)業(yè)失敗經(jīng)驗(yàn)與新產(chǎn)品開(kāi)發(fā)績(jī)效的關(guān)系中均起到部分中介作用，且中介作用程度無(wú)顯著差異。

6 結(jié)論

本研究整合經(jīng)驗(yàn)學(xué)習(xí)和認(rèn)知理論提出創(chuàng)業(yè)失敗經(jīng)驗(yàn)、創(chuàng)業(yè)導(dǎo)向與新產(chǎn)品開(kāi)發(fā)績(jī)效關(guān)系的理論模型并進(jìn)行實(shí)證檢驗(yàn)。研究結(jié)果表明，創(chuàng)業(yè)失敗經(jīng)驗(yàn)與新產(chǎn)品開(kāi)發(fā)績(jī)效存在倒U形關(guān)系，創(chuàng)業(yè)失敗經(jīng)驗(yàn)與創(chuàng)業(yè)導(dǎo)向3個(gè)子維度存在倒U形關(guān)系，創(chuàng)業(yè)導(dǎo)向在創(chuàng)業(yè)失敗經(jīng)驗(yàn)與新產(chǎn)品開(kāi)發(fā)績(jī)效之間起部分中介作用。

(1)本研究拓展了先前經(jīng)驗(yàn)的內(nèi)涵，發(fā)現(xiàn)創(chuàng)業(yè)失敗經(jīng)驗(yàn)對(duì)于新產(chǎn)品開(kāi)發(fā)績(jī)效的獨(dú)特作用。已有關(guān)于先前經(jīng)驗(yàn)的研究聚焦探索創(chuàng)業(yè)經(jīng)驗(yàn)[4]、職能經(jīng)驗(yàn)[5-6]、技術(shù)和市場(chǎng)經(jīng)驗(yàn)[65]等對(duì)于組織績(jī)效的影響，而不同性質(zhì)的先前經(jīng)驗(yàn)(如成功經(jīng)驗(yàn)和失敗經(jīng)驗(yàn))對(duì)創(chuàng)業(yè)者的后續(xù)態(tài)度[4]和行為[34]以及組織績(jī)效可能存在不同的影響。對(duì)創(chuàng)業(yè)者而言，創(chuàng)業(yè)失敗“司空見(jiàn)慣”，雖然對(duì)于新產(chǎn)品開(kāi)發(fā)等組織績(jī)效具有獨(dú)特價(jià)值，但沒(méi)有得到既有研究的關(guān)注。本研究聚焦于創(chuàng)業(yè)失敗經(jīng)驗(yàn)，將其從先前經(jīng)驗(yàn)中獨(dú)立出來(lái)，深化了對(duì)不同性質(zhì)先前經(jīng)驗(yàn)作用的理解，為進(jìn)一步研究各類失敗經(jīng)驗(yàn)對(duì)后續(xù)創(chuàng)業(yè)活動(dòng)及組織績(jī)效的獨(dú)特作用奠定基礎(chǔ)。

(2)本研究提出并檢驗(yàn)創(chuàng)業(yè)失敗經(jīng)驗(yàn)與新產(chǎn)品開(kāi)發(fā)績(jī)效之間的倒U形關(guān)系，得出最有利于新產(chǎn)品開(kāi)發(fā)績(jī)效的創(chuàng)業(yè)失敗經(jīng)驗(yàn)水平。不同于以往檢驗(yàn)先前經(jīng)驗(yàn)與組織績(jī)效之間線性關(guān)系的做法，本研究整合經(jīng)驗(yàn)學(xué)習(xí)和認(rèn)知理論，提出創(chuàng)業(yè)失敗經(jīng)驗(yàn)與新產(chǎn)品開(kāi)發(fā)績(jī)效存在倒U形關(guān)系，為現(xiàn)有研究結(jié)論的不一致性提供了相機(jī)解釋。同時(shí)，創(chuàng)業(yè)失敗經(jīng)驗(yàn)與新產(chǎn)品開(kāi)發(fā)績(jī)效的倒U形關(guān)系在一定程度上印證了Ucbasaran等[34]關(guān)于創(chuàng)業(yè)失敗經(jīng)驗(yàn)與機(jī)會(huì)識(shí)別存在倒U形關(guān)系的研究結(jié)論，未來(lái)研究可進(jìn)一步探索各類失敗經(jīng)驗(yàn)與個(gè)體行為和組織績(jī)效的非線性關(guān)系。

(3)本研究檢驗(yàn)創(chuàng)業(yè)導(dǎo)向在創(chuàng)業(yè)失敗經(jīng)驗(yàn)與新產(chǎn)品開(kāi)發(fā)績(jī)效倒U形關(guān)系中的多重中介效應(yīng)，揭示了創(chuàng)業(yè)失敗經(jīng)驗(yàn)向新產(chǎn)品開(kāi)發(fā)績(jī)效轉(zhuǎn)化的具體路徑。更精細(xì)地解釋了創(chuàng)業(yè)失敗經(jīng)驗(yàn)通過(guò)影響創(chuàng)業(yè)導(dǎo)向進(jìn)而影響新產(chǎn)品開(kāi)發(fā)績(jī)效的作用機(jī)理，揭示了從創(chuàng)業(yè)失敗經(jīng)驗(yàn)到新產(chǎn)品開(kāi)發(fā)績(jī)效之間的非線性轉(zhuǎn)化路徑。意義在于闡釋創(chuàng)業(yè)失敗經(jīng)驗(yàn)不但可通過(guò)個(gè)人層面的人力資本因素直接影響新產(chǎn)品開(kāi)發(fā)績(jī)效，而且可通過(guò)塑造組織層面創(chuàng)業(yè)導(dǎo)向?qū)π庐a(chǎn)品開(kāi)發(fā)績(jī)效施以間接影響。此外，多重中介模型檢驗(yàn)結(jié)果表明，創(chuàng)業(yè)導(dǎo)向各維度的中介作用存在差異但并不顯著，為關(guān)于“創(chuàng)業(yè)導(dǎo)向各個(gè)維度的影響是否存在差異”的學(xué)術(shù)爭(zhēng)論[66]提供了新產(chǎn)品開(kāi)發(fā)情景下的經(jīng)驗(yàn)證據(jù)。

(4)本研究檢驗(yàn)創(chuàng)業(yè)失敗經(jīng)驗(yàn)與創(chuàng)業(yè)導(dǎo)向的關(guān)系，從認(rèn)知理論視角拓展了對(duì)創(chuàng)業(yè)導(dǎo)向前因變量的理論詮釋。已有研究很少?gòu)膫€(gè)體層面探索創(chuàng)業(yè)導(dǎo)向的前因變量，本研究認(rèn)為創(chuàng)業(yè)導(dǎo)向主要由創(chuàng)業(yè)者塑造[10]，并向組織層面延伸[9]，利用認(rèn)知理論關(guān)于經(jīng)驗(yàn)影響個(gè)體的認(rèn)知模式和行為方式的研究視角，首次將創(chuàng)業(yè)失敗經(jīng)驗(yàn)作為創(chuàng)業(yè)導(dǎo)向的前因變量進(jìn)行研究，發(fā)現(xiàn)創(chuàng)業(yè)失敗經(jīng)驗(yàn)與創(chuàng)業(yè)導(dǎo)向的3個(gè)維度均存在倒U形關(guān)系，豐富了認(rèn)知視角下創(chuàng)業(yè)導(dǎo)向前因變量的解釋，對(duì)創(chuàng)業(yè)導(dǎo)向領(lǐng)域研究進(jìn)行了有益的補(bǔ)充。

本研究有3個(gè)方面的局限。一是沒(méi)有區(qū)分創(chuàng)業(yè)失敗規(guī)模和程度上的差異。本研究對(duì)創(chuàng)業(yè)失敗的定義雖被大量研究采納[13,34,36]，卻難以度量其程度和規(guī)模，這可能會(huì)對(duì)研究發(fā)現(xiàn)的普適性產(chǎn)生影響。未來(lái)可進(jìn)一步探索不同程度創(chuàng)業(yè)失敗經(jīng)驗(yàn)對(duì)組織績(jī)效的影響機(jī)制，同時(shí)探究不同類型的創(chuàng)業(yè)老手(如組合創(chuàng)業(yè)者和連環(huán)創(chuàng)業(yè)者等)對(duì)研究結(jié)論是否存在差異。其次，創(chuàng)業(yè)失敗經(jīng)驗(yàn)為創(chuàng)業(yè)者提供了寶貴的學(xué)習(xí)機(jī)會(huì)[34]，其他類型的失敗經(jīng)驗(yàn)(如新產(chǎn)品開(kāi)發(fā)失敗經(jīng)驗(yàn)等)對(duì)新產(chǎn)品開(kāi)發(fā)績(jī)效存在影響，而這些失敗經(jīng)驗(yàn)必然具有異質(zhì)性[34]，未來(lái)研究可考察不同類型的失敗經(jīng)驗(yàn)與新產(chǎn)品開(kāi)發(fā)績(jī)效的關(guān)系以及情景因素(如社會(huì)網(wǎng)絡(luò)[67])對(duì)該關(guān)系的調(diào)節(jié)影響。最后，創(chuàng)業(yè)導(dǎo)向相關(guān)研究大多集中于討論創(chuàng)業(yè)導(dǎo)向的3個(gè)維度[20]，未來(lái)可擴(kuò)展對(duì)創(chuàng)業(yè)導(dǎo)向其他潛在維度的研究，如競(jìng)爭(zhēng)積極性和自治性等[9]，還可以對(duì)子維度進(jìn)行細(xì)分，如將風(fēng)險(xiǎn)承擔(dān)性分為商業(yè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)承擔(dān)性和財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)承擔(dān)性[9]，精細(xì)化創(chuàng)業(yè)導(dǎo)向在先前經(jīng)驗(yàn)與績(jī)效關(guān)系中的作用闡釋。

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AnInvertedU-ShapeRelationshipbetweenEntrepreneurialFailureExperiencesandNewProductDevelopmentPerformance:TheMultipleMediatingEffectsofEntrepreneurialOrientation

Yu Xiaoyu，Tao Xiangming

School of Management, Shanghai University, Shanghai 200444, China

Prior empirical studies on the relationship between entrepreneur′s prior experience and the new venture performance are mixed. Some scholars argue that entrepreneur′s prior experience may enhance new venture performance primarily based on the human-capital theory. However, many scholars hold the viewpoint that more prior experience may not guarantee better new venture performance, since prior experience can shape his/her cognitive profile and lead to his/her bias in thinking, which may retard the entrepreneurs′ learning behaviors and thus negatively affect performance of new ventures. Previous studies failed to conjointly consider both the positive and negative effects of entrepreneurial failure experience on new venture performance, and have not addressed whether and how entrepreneurial failure experience influences the New Product Development(NPD) performance of new ventures. To address these research gaps, this study provides fresh insights into the relationship between entrepreneurial failure experience and NPD performance. This study integrates experience learning theory and cognitive theories and builds a conceptual model to explore an inverted U-shaped relationship between entrepreneurial failure experience and NPD performance and the underlying mechanism.

Hypotheses were tested using data from 231 habitual entrepreneurs of high-technology new ventures. The study results, based on hierarchical regression analysis and bootstrapping method, showed that: ①There was an inverted U-shaped relationship between entrepreneurial failure experience and the NPD performance; ②There were inverted U-shaped relationships between entrepreneurial failure experience and the three dimensions of entrepreneurial orientation, namely, proactiveness, innovativeness and risk-taking; ③proactiveness, innovativeness and risk-taking partially mediate the relationship between entrepreneurial failure experience and NPD performance respectively.

The study demonstrates a nonlinear transformation path from entrepreneurial failure experiences to the NPD performance, which addresses the inconsistency of existing research findings on prior experiences and performance, and deepens the understanding of the crucial role of entrepreneurial failure experiences on NPD performance. Additionally, the results also suggest the mediating effects of entrepreneurial orientation on the relationship between entrepreneurial failure experience and NPD performance, which indicates that entrepreneurial failure experiences not only directly influence the NPD performance through human capital at individual level but also indirectly influence NPD performance by shaping entrepreneurial orientation at organizational level. Finally, entrepreneurial failure experiences have an inverted U-shaped relationship with the three dimensions of entrepreneurial orientation. Such conclusions enrich our knowledge about the antecedents of entrepreneurial orientation from the cognitive perspective.

The empirical results should alert entrepreneurs, especially habitual entrepreneurs(i.e. sequential entrepreneurs and portfolio entrepreneurs), to the potential problems associated with an over-reliance on personal failure experiences. This study has highlighted that failure experiences have both positive and negative effects on entrepreneur′s entrepreneurial decision-making and organizational performance. In addition, the study also suggests that venture capitalist should evaluate the value of entrepreneurial failure experiences on entrepreneurial activity more rationally.

entrepreneurial failure；prior experience；entrepreneurial orientation；new product development performance；habitual entrepreneurs

Date:March 4th, 2015

DateAugust 3rd, 2015

FundedProject:Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(71472119,71102030), the Shuguang Planning of Shanghai Education Development Foundation(14SG38), the National Social Science Foundation of China(13AZD015,11&ZD035), the Project of Philosophy and Social Science of Shanghai(2014BGL013), the Pujiang Talent Plan of Shanghai(15PJC053) and the Project of Social Development of Metropolis and Construction of Smart City(085SHDX001)

Biography:Yu Xiaoyu(1982-,Native of Zhangqiu, Shandong), Doctor in Management and is a Professor in the School of Management at Shanghai University. His research interests include entrepreneurship and technology management, etc. E-mail：yuxiaoyu@vip.126.com

F272.2

A

10.3969/j.issn.1672-0334.2015.05.001

1672-0334(2015)05-0001-14

2015-03-04修返日期2015-08-03

國(guó)家自然科學(xué)基金(71472119,71102030)；上海市教委與上海市教育發(fā)展基金會(huì)曙光計(jì)劃(14SG38)；國(guó)家社會(huì)科學(xué)基金(13AZD015,11&ZD035)；上海市哲學(xué)社會(huì)科學(xué)“十二五”一般課題(2014BGL013)；上海市浦江人才計(jì)劃項(xiàng)目(15PJC053)；上海大學(xué)內(nèi)涵建設(shè)資助項(xiàng)目(085SHDX001)

于曉宇(1982-)，男，山東章丘人，管理學(xué)博士，上海大學(xué)管理學(xué)院教授，研究方向：創(chuàng)業(yè)和技術(shù)管理等。

E-mail：yuxiaoyu@vip.126.com

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