Game Rules of Shipping Capital

Reporter Xu Hua

Due to the depression of shipping market，pessimistic mood spreads， coupled with successive losses or bankruptcy. In spite of this， new ships continue to pour into the market， which made the fragile market even worse. Hence， someone screamed that the easy money was the real “culprit”of excess capacity. Thus， where did the cash-strapped owners exactly raise funds to support a steady stream of new ships， whether shipping industry lacks money?Is money the life-saving medicine to get itself out of trouble， or is it the life-killing poison?Since the 2008 crisis， shipping industry has experienced seven years’ tough period， but the expected recovery hasn’t come yet. To make matters worse， after seven years of winter baptism， shipping capacity did not decrease， but excess trend has been intensified. Newly delivered ships are flowing into the market， which leaves the recovery to the indefinite future. According to the survey of annual meeting of the international ocean shipping， most of the participants were not optimistic about the future market. Thus， what reason makes recovery expectations fall through again and again?It is reported that recently at the Hong Kong shipowner forum， owners generally believed that the easy money is the real “culprit” of the excess capacity. At the third ship financing forum， Zhang Shouguo， executive vice president and secretary general of China shipowners association also said the financial sector provides the necessary financial support for shipping industry in depression； However， the excess capital investment， like a double-edged sword， will drag market which just has some improvement but not restored well， back into the bottom.

Zhuang Wei， BIMCO’s manager， reflected a view of the market that ship owners should take ships as pig to raise， and not like his son to keep. Be willing to buy and sell. We can find the difference between operational ship owners and investment owners. So， the operational ship owner mostly takes a ship as a son， while the investment owner surely takes a ship as a pig. Of course， the two are not entirely different from each other， and crossing each other is also common to occur. As you can imagine，as more people raise pigs， the situation of buying the bottom is obvious.

In fact， in the process of the downturn shipping， it is a nightmare of excess capacity made by universal counter-cyclical operation time and time again. The full investment of capital helps every industry with bargain-hunting dream raise enough money. After all，the experience of predecessors tells us that in any market with cycle fluctuations， there are bottoms， and also there are peaks. Countless successful cases prove that counter-cyclical operations. And so， whenever a faint sign of recovery appears in the market， it is a signal to the bargain hunters， and consequently a lot of new orders pour into the market quickly， at the same time， they also destroyed the signs of recovery and opportunity at the same time.

The spring of 2013 was the one mostly indicative of recovery. Crisis has gone for five years， the ship price has reached the lowest level， and the energy conservation and environmental protection concept was deeply rooted in people’s hearts， which stirred all kinds of bargain hunting power. Capital could not help imagining of getting success， they entered into market one by one.Even European Banks， which kept away from shipping，also opens the door of the shipping again. After the fl ood of capital， shipbuilding orders took a new lease of life.

In Jan. 2013， the new index of shipbuilding CPNI first turned red and sent signals of ship prices hitting the bottom with a faint rise to the industry. According to data released by China shipbuilding industry association，orders were 9.6 million deadweight tons in the first quarter of 2013， which has increased by 71.1% year-onyear. Shanghai new shipbuilding index CPNI asserted in the beginning of 2012， the recovery of shipbuilding market would not necessarily be later than the shipping industry， depending on whether the bank would invest a lot of money.

The facts have proven that this recovery just lasted through the spring， and then it encountered winter.Winter in the end of 2014 was extremely cold. BDI index plunged a lot， repeatedly setting the lowest record in history， and bulk carriers ushered in the darkest period of history once again. At the same time， the shipping market recovery has been retreated. Shipping industry doesn’t believe in trough， bargain-hunting curse also threatens the container and oil tanker market which focus on capital，and to terminate this prosperity is only a matter of time.