A Gray Year for Peace and Growth

By+Chen+Xulong+&+Su+Xiaohui

Looking back at the state of the world last year， both conventional and nonconventional security threats posed challenges globally. Influenced by confrontation between powers， some regions fell into the chaos of conflict. Meanwhile， the comprehensive strength of emerging economies and developing countries continued to rise.

Slow uptrend

The global economic rebound was weak in 2014， suggesting that the world could be stuck in a sluggish growth rut for a long time. According to the World Economic Outlook report released by the International Monetary Fund （IMF） last October， the growth forecast for the world economy in 2014 was 3.3 percent， the same level as in 2013. Its forecast for global trade growth in 2014 stood at 3.1 percent， only slightly higher than in the previous year. Both of the figures are lower than those prior to 2008.

The IMF report stated that the growth rate for developed economies was expected to be 1.8 percent in 2014. The GDP growth for the United States， for example， has been estimated at 2.2 percent. Emerging markets and developing economies as a whole were reported to have produced stronger growth with an average of 4.4 percent last year. China， as the worlds largest developing country， would register a GDP growth with 7.4 percent—lower than in previous years. The United States and China are the two most important economic powerhouses in the world.

Developed economies have taken a different approach in terms of recovery. The U.S. Federal Reserve ended its quantitative easing （QE） stimulus in October 2014， declaring an effective economic recovery. The EU and Japan are considering more QE measures to cope with their respective economic recessions， registering growth rates of 0.9 percent for the EU and 0.8 percent for Japan.

Brazil， Russia， India， China and South Africa—members of the BRICS club of major emerging economies—have made efforts of their own to address economic challenges. China and India maintained highspeed economic development last year， with the latters growth rate reaching 5.6 percent. Brazil and Russia are struggling with a number of problems， including stagflation， currency devaluation and capital loss. The two countries growth rates in 2014 stood at 0.3 percent and 0.5 percent， respectively.

The overall growth speed for developing economies in 2014 was 0.3 percent lower than in the same period a year earlier， and that figure has remained less than 5 percent for three consecutive years. Their growth rate is expected to bounce back to 5 percent in 2015-18， but is unlikely to repeat the 7 percent between 2003 and 2007， according to the IMF. The slowing growth of developing economies could become a “new normal.”Despite their economic slowdown， developing economies as a whole are still growing faster than developed ones， and are nonetheless playing an increasingly important role in driving the world economy.

Against the backdrop of a sluggish trend， both developed and developing economies have chosen to pursue growth through economic restructuring， industrial transfor- mation and innovation. For example， the United States planned to establish eight innovation centers to promote reindustrial-ization of its manufacturing sector.

Developing new international cooperation mechanisms is also a valuable objective for many countries. Free trade was featured as a major agenda item for many multilateral meetings in 2014. At present， the negotiation for the United States-led Trans-Pacific Partnership trade agreement has made substantial progress. Other significant free trade talks are advancing on schedule in the Asia-Pacific region， namely the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership， initiated by the Association of Southeast Asian Nations.

Leaders reached broad consensus at the 22nd Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Economic Leaders Meeting in Beijing on November 5-11， 2014， in terms of advancing regional economic integration， promoting innovative development， economic reform and growth as well as strengthening connectivity and infrastructure development.

As for global governance， leaders of the Group of 20 （G20） promised to work together to lift growth， boost economic resilience and strengthen global institutions at the summit held in Brisbane， Australia， on November 15-16， 2014.

G20 leaders in 2010 agreed upon a reform package of the IMF that will give emerging economies greater voting power. However， the United States， which is the largest stakeholder at the institution， has failed to ratify it due to opposition by the U.S. Congress. The efforts by some U.S. politicians to protect the countrys global financial hegemony suggest that the process of reforming the international financial system remain arduous.

In response， emerging economies have been making efforts to avoid financial risks by reducing dependence on the U.S. dollar. For example， BRICS countries agreed on the establishment of the New Development Bank and the Contingent Reserve Arrangement at Fortaleza summit in Brazil on July 15， 2014， marking a significant step forward in the groups role in global financial governance.

‘Colder war

The Ukraine crisis and civil war triggered a series of political and economic impacts on geopolitics and international order in 2014.

The expansion of NATO and the EU toward Ukraine has provoked a sharp conflict between Russia and the West. At the moment， the Ukraine crisis has escalated to a proxy war between army of the pro-West Ukrainian Government and Russia-backed militants in east Ukraine.

Since the outbreak of the Ukraine crisis， the United States and the EU have imposed a series of restrictive measures on Russias finance， defense and energy sectors. Canada and Japan have also joined the sanctions against Russia.

The relationship between Russia and the West has deteriorated to its lowest point since the end of the Cold War in the early 1990s. Meanwhile， the European continent faces unprecedented conventional security risks that could spark a new cold war.

In response to the heavy pressure from the West， Russia has refused to compromise and adopted a tough posture to protect its strategic interests. To ease economic hardships from West-simposed sanctions and isolation， it has enhanced ties with China through major deals on energy and finance. In the meantime， Russia has attempted to make use of its status as a major energy supplier to EU countries as well as gaps between the United States and the EU on the Ukraine crisis to divide its rivalry coalition.

New challenges

Terrorism rebounded strongly in the Middle East as Islamic State （IS） militants swept north Iraq and Syria through continuous offensives last year. The IS has become the biggest terrorist threat to the region. In a spillover effect， a large number of terrorists from across the world have resonated strongly with the ISs call for a brutal jihad. Moreover， these international jihadists produce new threats based on their experience in the IS when they return to their countries of origin. Other terrorist groups， like the Pakistani Taliban and the Nigerian Boko Haram， have also launched frequent attacks and caused heavy civilian casualties.

The rise of the IS has had an impact on the United States Middle East strategy. The Iraqi Government has lost control of considerably large territories in the country， dealing a major blow to the U.S.-led democratic experiment in Iraq. The United States has organized a coalition to fight against the IS in retaliation.

The Ebola epidemic has claimed the lives of more than 7，000 people since its outbreak in Guinea in West Africa in December 2013. The virus was even brought to the United States and European nations when some affected medical service volunteers returned to their homelands from the epidemic area. In view of the outbreaks severity， the World Health Organization declared the Ebola outbreak an international public health emergency on August 8， 2014.

The poor public health system and the lack of necessary knowledge in underdeveloped West African countries are the major reasons why this Ebola outbreak has been much more serious than before in terms of infections and fatalities. The international community should learn a lesson from the unprecedented regional epidemic， as the world did not react quickly enough to contain the virus in the less-concerned West Africa at the beginning. Helping underdeveloped countries build a basic health system remains a major challenge for the international community.

Unstable Asia-Pacific

In the Asia-Pacific region， the United States has enhanced military， political and economic links with its allies and partners as it pushes forward the pivot-to-Asia strategy. Throughout 2014， its engagements with regional countries were focused on leading the establishment of AsiaPacific security and trade mechanisms.

With the permission of the United States， Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abes cabinet has sought to lift a constitutional ban on Japans right to collective self-defense， which may lead to the countrys remilitarization. During a visit to Japan in April 2014， U.S. President Barack Obama said that the U.S.-Japan mutual security treaty applies to Chinas Diaoyu Islands in the East China Sea， which is currently under Japanese administrative control， in defiance of Chinas opposition.

In addition to Japan， some countries that have territorial disputes with China in the South China Sea have received U.S. support. For example， the United States has enhanced defense cooperation with the Philippines by providing warships and carrying out joint military drills. The United States has also partially lifted restrictions on arms exports to viet Nam.

The U.S. intervention has raised tensions in the South China Sea， though it has assured China that it would not take sides on territorial disputes in the region. For the foreseeable future， situations in the South China Sea will remain complicated.