人民幣國際化展望

摘要: 本文由人民幣的現狀和國際化的需求開始，討論了人民幣國際化的好處，指出了人民幣國際化需要解決的問題，并最后給出結論。

關鍵詞:人民幣國際化 人民幣 問題

Abstract: This passage is talking about the benefits of RMB internationalization， and than the it point out the problems about RMB internationalization， and at the end of the passage the author gives a conclusion.

Key words: RMB internationalizationRMBproblem

After the sub-crisis， the internationalization of RMB has become a hot issue in China. Public interest in this issue was attracted not only by the problem of US dollars， but also by the high development of Chinese economy.

Recently， RMB has been accepted as transaction currency by some of neighbor countries， but these countries treat RMB as transaction currency not because they take RMB as a valuable currency but because their foreign trades closely link to China. Most of the import products in the countries that use RMB as transaction currency are come from China. In addition， their major destination of their export products is China. Taking RMB as transaction currency is much more convenient than using a third transaction currency and saving a lot of transaction cost. Thus， that’s the reason why some countries have already taken RMB as transaction currency.

Once RMB is internationalized and accepted by most of the countries in the world as a major reserve currency， there will be some obvious benefits. The first one is benefit from seigniorage. Seigniorage revenue is come from the devaluation of a currency that held by other countries and this concept has been known to most of Chinese people， owing to a book named the currency war that written by Song Hongbing. The seigniorage is available to every currency， but the amount is very small and ignorable. When a currency is accepted as a major currency by most countries in the world such as US， the amount of seigniorage will be very huge and directly relate to the number of the currency that held by foreign counties.

Second benefit is that China’s prestige would be much higher than that at present if RMB becomes a major currency. This point is also very obvious that we can just examine what US dollars benefit US.

Another benefit is that China can reduce a lot costs in the international trade if RMB is accepted as transaction currency. Nowadays， most foreign trades use US dollar as transaction currency， thus there will be two issues that must be considered. The first one is the costs that come from the exchange of two currencies. Another one is the risk at the change of exchange rate when a contract has been signed and the money has been paid. This risk actually made a lot of companies bankrupt during the year 2006 when RMB appreciated very quickly. Most of those firms were in Jiangsu or Zhejiang and their major business is to manufacture products and export them to foreign countries. What’s more， their revenue was a very small percentage of their sales and the appreciation of RMB takes away their little profit， so they have to stop manufacturing and close their firms. If these firms don’t have to change the price into US dollars and pay their employees and suppliers of raw materials with RMB， there won’t be exchange rate risk.

The last benefit that comes from the internationalization of RMB is that the internationalization would help China develop his capital market. This is another big issue， but it is a must for establishing an internationalized capital market to make RMB become a major reserve currency.As a matter of fact， the openness and internationalization of Chinese capital must be based on internationalization of RMB.

Before China benefits from the internationalization of RMB， we have to solve some problems. The very first issue is that RMB is still can’t be exchanged freely; so Chinese government has to face this issue if they want to make RMB Internationalized. The term “exchange freely” not only means opening the exchange market to enterprises but also opening the exchange market to individuals. The consideration that open foreign exchange market means to turn to floating exchange rate system and China will lose his advantage in international trade. This consideration is not completely correct. For there’re a lot kinds of floating exchange rate systems， a totally floating exchange rate system do have many disadvantages such that it is easy to be attack， that frequent floating in exchange rate would hurt the export industry. However， a floating exchange rate system under the cautious and careful supervisions such as the system in America does not have these advantages. The huge foreign reserve currency in China makes it’s very difficult to attack RMB， and the cautious and careful supervisions can make sure that the floating exchange rate would not hurt those export firms.

Another issue Chinese government have to face is the inflation. Chinese government intended to take the GDP growth as the most important object in their policies in the past， and the inflation rate is not as important as GDP growth. But if they want RMB to play a more important role in the world wild economy and finance， Chinese government must make the object that maintain the stabilization of RMB’s value at least as important as keeping GDP growth. If Chinese inflation rate remains as high as that at present， very few countries would take RMB as a major reserve currency. Chinese government must make balance between domestic growth and international responsibility.

After all， we can see that there are a lot of things that need to do before RMB is truly internationalized. It is a very attractive issue about what would be if RMB become a super currency. But it is not a good time for RMB now， and it is not a good time in the expectable future. The internationalization of RMB requires a health economy and a well-working finance system and being supported by a real strong-probably the strongest-economy in the world. The internationalization would not be a government act but be a step-by-step process of accompanies with the economy’s development in China.

Reference

[1]張明(Zhang Ming)， Development and secret worry of RMB internationalization， International Financing

[2]李豫(Li Yu)， RMB Internationalization and the Construction of Shanghai

International Financial Center， Shanghai Finance

[3]楊 森(Yang Sen)， On RMB Internationalization in Post-Crisis Era， World Trade Organization Focus

[4]陸前進(Lu Qianjin) ;U.S. Dollar Hegemony and the Reform of International Monetary System: On the Issue of RMB Internationalization

（責任編輯：韓曉兵）