基于IV、CF、LRIV和LRCF模型的海南昌江縣地質(zhì)災(zāi)害易發(fā)性評價(jià)研究

摘要：海南省昌江縣地質(zhì)條件復(fù)雜，地質(zhì)災(zāi)害頻發(fā)，開展地質(zhì)災(zāi)害易發(fā)性研究對該縣地質(zhì)災(zāi)害防治與監(jiān)測預(yù)警具有重要的現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。以昌江縣為研究區(qū)，選取巖土體、高程變異系數(shù)、坡度、斷裂、起伏度、河流、道路、降雨作為易發(fā)性評價(jià)指標(biāo)，采用信息量（IV）模型、確定性系數(shù)（CF）模型、信息量邏輯回歸（LRIV）模型及確定性系數(shù)邏輯回歸（LRCF）模型進(jìn)行地質(zhì)災(zāi)害易發(fā)性評價(jià)研究。評價(jià)結(jié)果顯示，昌江縣地質(zhì)災(zāi)害高易發(fā)區(qū)主要分布于山區(qū)公路和河流兩側(cè)沿線，而極低易發(fā)區(qū)基本位于西部平原地區(qū);四種模型的AUC值分別為0.755、0.749、0.766及0.764，表明預(yù)測精度滿足易發(fā)性評價(jià)要求;LRIV模型與其他三種模型相比具有更高的可靠性和準(zhǔn)確性。研究結(jié)果可為海南島西南山區(qū)地質(zhì)災(zāi)害防治與監(jiān)測預(yù)警提供科學(xué)依據(jù)。

關(guān)鍵詞：

確定性系數(shù); 信息量模型; 邏輯回歸; 易發(fā)性; 地質(zhì)災(zāi)害

中圖分類號： P642.21""""" 文獻(xiàn)標(biāo)志碼：A"" 文章編號： 1000-0844（2025）02-0319-13

DOI：10.20000/j.1000-0844.20230512003

Susceptibility assessment of geological hazards in Changjiang County，

Hainan Island， based on IV， CF， LRIV， and LRCF models

LI Xin^1，2， XUE Guicheng^1，2， LIU Changzhu^1，2， MA Bo2， YANG Yongpeng^1，2，

YANG Feng^1，2， WANG Xiaolin^1，2， LI Jieyu3

（1. Hainan Key Laboratory of Marine Geological Resources and Environment， Haikou 570206， Hainan， China;

2. Hainan Geological Survey Institute， Haikou 570206， Hainan， China;

3. Hainan Association of Geology and Geography， Haikou 570206， Hainan， China）

Abstract：

In Changjiang County， located in the southwest mountainous area of Hainan Province， geological hazards have occurred frequently in recent years owing to the complex geological conditions and frequent engineering activities in the area. Therefore， studying the susceptibility of geological hazards in this region for the prevention， monitoring， and early warning of geological hazards has great practical significance. To evaluate the susceptibility of geological hazards in Changjiang County， the rock-soil mass， elevation variation coefficient， slope， fracture， undulation， river， road， and rainfall were selected as assessment indicators. The evaluation was conducted using four models： information value， certainty factor， logistic regression of information value （LRIV）， and logistic regression of certainty factor. The results indicate that the high-susceptibility areas of geological hazards in Changjiang County are mainly distributed along roads and rivers in the mountainous areas， while the extremely low-susceptibility areas are located in the plains. The AUC values of the four models， 0.755， 0.749， 0.766， and 0.764， respectively， indicate that the prediction accuracy meets the requirement of susceptibility assessment and that the LRIV model is more reliable and accurate than the three other models. The findings of this research can provide a scientific basis for the prevention， monitoring， and early warning of geological hazards in the southwest mountainous areas of Hainan Island.

Keywords：

certainty factor; information value model; logistic regression; susceptibility; geological hazards

0 引言

隨著海南自貿(mào)港建設(shè)力度不斷加大，昌江縣旅游開發(fā)、礦產(chǎn)開發(fā)等工程活動(dòng)日益頻繁;然而，昌江縣地質(zhì)條件復(fù)雜，構(gòu)造發(fā)育，地形起伏大，導(dǎo)致地質(zhì)災(zāi)害頻發(fā)。加強(qiáng)地質(zhì)災(zāi)害防治與監(jiān)測對海南自由貿(mào)易港建設(shè)和國家熱帶雨林公園的地質(zhì)環(huán)境保護(hù)具有重要意義。昌江縣地質(zhì)災(zāi)害分布于西南部山區(qū)，對地質(zhì)災(zāi)害進(jìn)行定期巡視、巡查和識別判斷具有一定的難度。開展地質(zhì)災(zāi)害易發(fā)性評價(jià)可以有效地識別地質(zhì)災(zāi)害高易發(fā)區(qū)，對研究區(qū)精準(zhǔn)化監(jiān)測與防控具有指導(dǎo)意義;同時(shí)對揭示該地區(qū)地質(zhì)災(zāi)害發(fā)育的成災(zāi)機(jī)制和分布規(guī)律具有重要意義。……