考慮碳排放推動下電能替代負荷的配電網擴展規劃方法

摘" 要： “雙碳”背景下，電源側的清潔能源化和負荷側的電能替代負荷將對配電網的規劃產生深遠影響，為此，提出一種考慮電能替代負荷的配電網擴展規劃方法。首先，從社會經濟、環保約束、政策支持、技術水平四個方面對各行業電能替代負荷發展的影響因素進行量化，從而得到關鍵特征值，并基于此提出一種基于DBO?SVM算法的電能替代負荷預測模型；其次，計及碳排放成本及約束，以綜合成本最小、碳排放量最低為多目標建立考慮電能替代負荷的配電網擴展規劃模型，利用隸屬度函數對多目標問題進行模糊處理，將多目標模型轉化為單目標混合整數線性規劃模型；最后，在IEEE 33節點系統上驗證所提方法的有效性。結果表明：基于DBO?SVM算法的電能替代負荷預測模型收斂速度較快，預測精度較高，能夠考慮多方面影響因素并有效預測各行業電能替代負荷量；規劃方法考慮了各行業電能替代負荷需求，可以對RE發電進行合理選址定容，提升RE發電接入量并且降低網絡損耗；同時采用多目標模糊處理的方法能夠兼顧系統經濟性與環保性，有利于“雙碳”目標的實現。

關鍵詞： 碳排放； 配電網擴展規劃； 電能替代負荷； 預測流程； DBO?SVM算法； 模糊多目標優化； IEEE 33節點系統

中圖分類號： TN322.8+?34； TM715" " " " " " " "文獻標識碼： A" " " " " " " " " " "文章編號： 1004?373X（2025）04?0083?08

Distribution network expansion planning considering electric energy alternative load driven by carbon emission

WANG Jingyao1， HUANG Yuan1， QIAO Ao2

（1. College of Electrical Engineering， Sichuan University， Chengdu 610065， China;

2. School of Logistics， Chengdu Universityof Information Technology， Chengdu 610103， China）

Abstract： Under the background of thecarbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals， the clean energy on the power supply side and the electric energy alternative load on the load side have a profound impact on the distribution network planning. Therefore， a method of distribution network expansion planning considering electric energy alternative load is proposed. The influencing factors of the development of electric energy alternative load in various industries from four aspects： socio?economic， environmental constraints， policy support， and technological level are quantified to obtain key characteristic values， and on this basis， an electric energy alternative load prediction model based on DBO?SVM （dung beetle optimizer support vector machine） algorithm is proposed. Considering the cost and constraints of carbon emission， the distribution network expansion planning model considering the multi?objective load substitution of electric energy is established with the minimum comprehensive cost and the lowest carbon emission as multi?targets. The effectiveness of the proposed method is verified on an IEEE 33 node system. The results show that the electric energy alternative load prediction model based on DBO?SVM algorithm has faster convergence speed， and higher prediction accuracy， which can consider various influencing factors and effectively predict the electric energy alternative load of various industries. The method of multi?objective fuzzy processing can balance the system economy and environmental protection， and is conducive to the realization of \"double carbon\" goal.

Keywords： carbon emission; distribution network expansion planning; electric energy alternative load; prediction process; DBO?SVM algorithm; fuzzy multi?objective optimization; IEEE 33 node system

0" 引" 言

隨著環境問題的日益凸顯，減少碳排放成為全球熱點問題，習近平總書記在第七十五屆聯合國大會上提出了“雙碳”目標[1]?！半p碳”目標下能源消費結構逐步優化，終端電氣化進程持續推進，未來電能將成為主要能源消費品種，在碳中和階段電能占終端能源消費比重[2]將達到66.4%?！?br>