近30 年桂陽煙區氣候資源及適宜性評價

摘 要：為了研究桂陽煙區烤煙生產氣候適宜性，以1991—2020年桂陽的逐日氣象觀測數據為基礎資料，采用趨勢分析、適宜性評價等方法，分析了桂陽煙區氣候資源變化，烤煙種植的主要氣候因子及烤煙氣候適宜性的變化。結果表明：桂陽煙區氣候因子年際間差異較大，大田各生育期均溫顯著升高，其中伸根期均溫上升速率達0.128℃/a；大田期降雨量和大田期日照時數年際變化劇烈，但未通過顯著性檢驗（P＞0.05）；氣候適宜性的分析結果顯示，桂陽烤煙生產主要限制因子是伸根期均溫和大田期可用天數，均有向好趨勢；成熟期均溫和旺長期降雨量適宜度較高，但呈變差的趨勢；桂陽煙區烤煙氣候適宜性指數有所增加，但未通過顯著性檢驗（P＞0.05）。綜上，近30 a桂陽煙區氣候資源發生了較大變化，生產上必須趨利避害合理利用氣候的變化，合理布置好烤煙生產物候期。

關鍵詞：烤煙；氣候變化；氣候適宜性；桂陽

中圖分類號：S572.06 文獻標識碼：A 文章編號：1006-060X（2023）06-0055-06

Abstract：In order to explore the suitable climate for tobacco production in Guiyang tobacco-growing area， using" the daily meteorological observation data of Guiyang from 1991 to 2020 as reference， the trend analysis and suitability evaluation methods were adopted to analyze the changes of climate resources， the main climate factors affecting tobacco planting and climate suitability for tobacco in Guiyang tobacco-growing area. The results showed that the annual difference of climatic factors in Guiyang tobacco-growing area was big， and the average temperature in each growth period of field increased significantly， among which the average temperature in root-extending period increased at a rate of 0.128 ℃/a; the rainfall and sunshine duration in the field period changed sharply year by year， but failed to pass the 95% significance test （Pgt;0.05）. Climate suitability analysis showed that the main factors affecting tobacco production in Guiyang were the average temperature in root-extending period and the available days in the field period， which had a positive trend; the average temperature in maturity period and the rainfall in vigorous growing period had high suitability， but showing a trend of deterioration; the climate feasibility index （CFI） of flue-cured tobacco in Guiyang increased， but failed to pass the 95% significance test （Pgt;0.05）. To sum up， the climate resources in Guiyang tobacco-growing area have changed greatly in recent 30 years. In production， we must make good use of the climate change and suitably arrange the phenological period of tobacco production.

Key words： tobacco; climate change; climate suitability; Guiyang

氣候是影響農業生產的主要因素，高質量的氣候條件對農林業生產力的形成起著關鍵作用[1-2]。工業革命以來，全球性的氣候變化極其巨大[3-4]，而氣候的變化極易造成氣象災害頻發[5-6]，病蟲害加劇[7-8]。氣候變化引起作物氣候適宜性變化的研究已有大量報道。越昆等[9]研究發現，40 a來內蒙古中東部大部分玉米產區適宜氣溫增長在0.005℃/a以上，致使綜合適宜度發展向好，但降水適宜度呈下降趨勢，并指出合理的農業水資源利用是內蒙古玉米穩產增產的關鍵。……