湖南省綠色食品產業發展潛力預測?

摘 要：在對湖南省綠色食品產業發展現狀進行分析的基礎上，采用灰色模型對2022—2026年湖南省綠色食品產業產量和產值的發展趨勢進行了預測。結果表明：湖南省綠色食品產業發展現狀較好，近十年產量年均增長率達3.69%，近八年產值年均增長率35.79%；湖南省綠色食品產業有較大的發展潛力，預測2022—2026年產量、產值年均增長率分別可達5.13%、11.69%。分析了湖南省綠色食品產業發展潛力較大的原因和存在的不足，目前產品以農林產品及粗加工產品為主，結構單一，深加工能力不足；銷售方面具有一定的經濟效益，但出口基數小、發展緩慢。建議結合湖南綠色食品產業特點，采取加快科學技術的研究步伐，推動“湘字號”品牌建設，擴大示范基地規模，保障產品質量等措施，切實提高湖南省綠色食品產業競爭力。

關鍵詞：綠色食品產業；產量；產值；灰色預測模型；湖南

中圖分類號：F426.82；F327 文獻標識碼：A 文章編號：1006-060X（2023）02-0093-06

Abstract： This paper has made an analysis on the current situation of Hunan green food industry development， and a prediction for the 2022-2026 development trend of yield and output value of Hunan green food industry with the help of grey forecasting model. The results show that Hunan green food industry presents a good development status; it reaches a 3.69% average annual growth rate of production"in recent 10 years and a 35.79% average annual growth rate of output value in recent 8 years. That is to say， Hunan green food industry has good development potential. It is predicted that the average annual growth rate of production and output value will reach 5.13% and 11.69%， respectively during 2022-2026. Furthermore， the causes of the great development potential of Hunan green food industry， and the existing shortcomings have been analyzed. At present， the industry mainly focuses on agricultural and forestry products and roughly"processed products， with a single structure and insufficient deep processing capacity; there are certain economic benefits in sales， but the"export base is small and the development is slow. It is recommended to accelerate science and technology research， promote the"construction of \"Xiang\" brand， increase the size of demonstration bases and quality gurantee， etc. according to the industy characteristics， thus increasing the competitiveness of Hunan green food industry.

Key words：green food industry; production; output value; grey forecasting model; Hunan

依托良好的生態環境和全過程的質量管控，綠色食品現已成為安全優質農產品的代表和最具發展潛力的新興產業之一[1-2]。發展綠色食品產業對于推動我國農業高質量發展，促進鄉村振興具有重要的戰略意義[3-4]。自20 世紀90 年代初推行綠色食品開發戰略以來，經過30余年的努力，我國綠色食品產業已有了一定程度的發展，但依然存在總量規模不大、產品結構及區域發展不平衡、品牌知名度和宣傳力度不高、質量管理體系不健全等一系列問題[5-7]。如何促進綠色食品產業健康發展已成為學術界關注的重要課題?！?br>