International Security in 2022: Seeking Unity Amidst Fragmentation

Meng Xiangqing

In 2022， the world went through once-in-a-century changes compounded with the Russia-Ukraine conflict， which have accelerated the evolution of the global security landscape. Interactions between the increasing traditional and non-traditional security threats led to more regional turbulence. Escalated great power competition and bloc confrontation have let us feel the atmosphere of a “sub-cold war”. Hegemonic， domineering and bullying acts were on the rise， peace deficit， development deficit， security deficit， and governance deficit were aggravated， and security issues became transnational， more closely linked and more diversified. The international community is troubled by more new sources of weakness， poverty and instability， and global security issues have become more prominent and prevalent， leading to a more complex and changing security landscape. Human society is facing unprecedented challenges.

The Russia-Ukraine conflict makes traditional security issues once again become the focus of attention of the world

This conflict brings great changes to Europe and beyond in 2022 and it will even have an influence in the 2020s. The root cause， however， is not the antagonism between Russia and Ukraine， but between Russia and the US. Its essence is not confrontation between Russia and Ukraine， but a tug-of-war between Russia and the US. It will not only influence Russia and Ukraine， but also the rest of the world. This conflict will definitely bring long-term and profound impact on international security.

From a military perspective， the conflict is a regional one. However， as it gradually evolves into a diplomatic war， a financial war， a technological war， a sanction war， an economic war， an energy war， and a battle for public opinion， all major countries have been involved. This conflict once again confirms that modern warfare has gone far beyond the military sphere， and that the era of direct military warfare between major powers is gone. Hybrid warfare and proxy wars waged through political， economic， diplomatic， financial， technological， public opinion and cultural means have become prevalent. Unlike the traditional ones， hybrid warfare leverages both military and non-military means， and both conventional and unconventional means. It is more adaptable and flexible. It can cleverly avoid the trap of triggering a nuclear war between major powers， and to some extent， even not be bound by moral codes and international law. Therefore， hybrid warfare is becoming a strategic tool of choice for great powers to shape favorable strategic positions， win strategic competitions， and even to subdue the enemy without fighting.

The Russia-Ukraine conflict has greatly impinged on world peace and intensified the fragmentation of the world into different blocs， making the international security increasingly fragile. In the next 5 to 10 years， acts that may destroy the existing international rules will create more contradictions， and the “butterfly effect” of the Russia-Ukraine conflict will definitely intensify volatility， division， restructuring and evolution of the international landscape. Biological warfare， cyber warfare， cognitive warfare， financial warfare， space warfare and other non-traditional forms of warfare will gradually envelop the world， and the possibility of breaking out a new world war has become increasingly high. Therefore， this conflict not only brings revolutionary changes to traditional warfare， but also promotes the reshaping of the international security landscape. Traditional security issues has once again risen to the focus of world attention after 30 years since the end of the Cold War and become topic of the year 2022.

Traditional and non-traditional security threats compound with each other

In the Russia-Ukraine conflict， antagonism between Russia and the US and its Western allies has been fully intensified， with the focus rising from regional security to the fight for and against hegemony. The global geopolitical and economic competition has reached an unprecedented height. To impose sanctions on Russia， the US has staked its own dominance and credibility to wage a comprehensive confrontation with Russia. The decoupling between the two sides is more drastic than that during the Cold War. The US-led NATO continues to expand into the north while taking the first opportunity to get involved in the Asia-Pacific affairs to build a global NATO. Western countries headed by the US have taken various measures to encircle Russia， and accelerated fierce competition with China by triggering new wars or creating economic traps.

Rounds of extreme sanctions imposed on Russia by the US and its Western allies have led to global inflation， energy crisis and serious food crisis. And the conflict itself has directly led to soaring global oil prices and inflation， intensified existing social conflicts， and created many other economic， energy-related， social and financial problems. Some countries have thus been dragged into political chaos. As the conflict escalates， food production in Ukraine is hampered and food exports to Russia meet difficulties. Global food supply is facing more uncertainties， and countries that are highly dependent on Russia and Ukraine for food imports are encountered with risks of food shortages and poverty.

Against the backdrop of the Russia-Ukraine conflict， energy crisis， food crisis， inflation， and fierce competition between major powers， international crisis have emerged one after another and hotspot regional risks continue to spill over. In July 2022， then Prime Minister of Sri Lanka Ranil Wickremesinghe declared the country bankrupt， and dissolved the parliament and the government. Military conflict once again took place between Azerbaijan and Armenia. Domestic conflicts see no end in Syria. A number of violent and terrorist attacks erupted in Iraq. Multiple tribal conflicts in South Sudan led to thousands of deaths and millions displaced. At the same time， Europe is going through power crisis， record inflation， and rising risks of recession amidst energy crisis. Massive demonstrations and strikes have taken place in some countries， leading to political turmoil.

The world is once again daunted by nuclear security threats and nuclear conflict

It is widely believed that the possibility of a nuclear conflict and even a nuclear war is highest in 2022 since the Cuban missile crisis. The Russia-Ukraine conflict involves two nuclear powers. One is a direct belligerent， while the other has exerted all means except direct military engagement. The two sides were only one step away from a war. On the third day after the conflict broke out， Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered the nuclear deterrent forces to be on alert. On April 25， 2022， Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov warned not to underestimate risk of nuclear war. On May 4， the Russian military deployed Iskander missiles to simulate launches of nuclear-capable missiles in the Kaliningrad exclave. Russia's nuclear deterrence strategy has indeed played a role in deterring the US-led NATO from going to war. But the West has broken through the taboos of international relations that have developed since World War II. On the one hand， the UK made a high-profile statement that it would increase its stockpile of nuclear warheads by 40%， and the US also declared that NATO would be prepared for the outbreak of a nuclear war. On the other hand， the US and NATO have continued to increase their military assistance to Ukraine by providing it with a greater number of more advanced military equipment and even heavy weaponry. To date， the US and its Western allies have not directly sent troops to Ukraine， but the line between equipment and troops is becoming blurred.

During the Cuban missile crisis， the US and the Soviet Union had been engaged in secret negotiations even before the two great powers pressed the nuclear button. All the communication channels were functioning and leaders of the two sides always had a bottom line in mind. But things have changed during the Russia-Ukraine conflict. On October 17， 2022， NATO began a nuclear deterrence exercise known as Steadfast Noon. On October 27， the Biden administration released a new version of its Nuclear Posture Review， which explicitly identified nuclear weapons as a tool for realizing geopolitical objectives and mentioned the use of tactical nuclear weapons. The wrestling among the two sides and the International Atomic Energy Agency over the “Zaporozhye nuclear power plant” once again drew widespread attention to nuclear security issues around the world.

In 2022， the US， Russia， and other nuclear powers stepped up upgrading their nuclear arsenals， and some major powers deployed low-yield nuclear weapons on submarines， increasing the potential factors for triggering a nuclear crisis or even a nuclear war. As nuclear-armed states are vigorously expanding their nuclear arsenals， potential nuclear-armed states are also actively making preparations for acquiring nuclear weapons. The binding force of international nuclear arms control and regulation is declining， the international nuclear security is facing more instability， and the nuclear balance is becoming fragile.

The Russia-Ukraine Conflict and NATO 2022 Strategic Concept Open a New Arms Race Between Major Powers

On June 29 and 30， 2022， NATO held a summit in Spain as the Russia-Ukraine conflict was escalating and Western countries were enhancing sanctions against Russia. At the summit， NATO released a new strategic concept for the next 10 years， covering a series of key topics. In terms of enemy identification， the report repositions Russia and China as NATO's main threats， regarding Russia as “the most significant and direct threat to Allies security”， and China as “systemic challenges”. It also suggests that Chinas rise challenges Allies interests， values and democratic way of life. In terms of military build-up， NATO plans to increase its rapid-response unit from 40，000 to 300，000 troops before 2023. In terms of enlargement， Finland and Sweden have completed accession talks， making the number of NATO member states increase from 30 to 32. In terms of eastward expansion， NATO expands its scope of strategy from Europe to the Asia-Pacific. The summit， for the first time， invited Japan， South Korea， Australia and New Zealand， attempting to establish NATO as the one who maintains the order of the Asia-Pacific， so as to highlight its power and influence in the region.

The escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and recent moves of NATO have greatly intensified the arms race among major powers. The year 2022 has seen an increase in military spending and major adjustments in military policy in the US， Europe and some Asian countries. On December 8， 2022， the US House overwhelmingly passed the Fiscal Year 2023 defense policy bill that authorizes $858 billion for national defense， $45 billion more than the Biden administration proposed. Germany， Denmark， Sweden， and Italy announced that they would increase military spending to 2% of GDP. European countries have been buying armaments from the US. According to a report published by Yomiuri Shimbun on November 27， 2022， the Japanese government and ruling coalition started discussing the possibility of raising defense budget to more than 40 trillion yen （about $2 trillion） over the next five years. Once the bill comes into effect， the increase in Japans military spending will be as high as 45.6%， making Japan the third largest military spender in the world.

At the same time， competition among major powers in military technology and weaponry has become intensified. In 2022， the US Army launched the Project Convergence after the proposal of Multi-Domain Operations， which aims to connect sensors with shooters to accelerate the decision-making timeline. The US Navy proposed the Project Overmatch， which focuses on the integration of artificial intelligence （AI） and machine learning to increase operational advantages. The US Air Force continues to increase technology investment in projects including Alpha Dogfight and SkyBorg to enhance the ability of autonomous air combat. Israel for the first time deployed swarms of AI-assisted drones in combat. The drones can communicate with each other， pinpoint targets， and even command raids. The British Army used AI technology in the NATO exercise “Spring Storm”. AI helps not only quickly process a large amount of data such as the surrounding environment and terrain information， but also predict the actions of the opponent and deliver intelligence in real time. Russia's Command Information System is designed to analyze the battlefield environment with the help of AI and provide commanders with multiple options for action.

In 2022， a number of new technologies were used in the field. In March， Russia used hypersonic Kinzhal missiles to destroy an underground weapons depot of Ukraine where Point-U missiles and aircraft ordnance were stored， making the first operational use of hypersonic missiles. The US has also stepped up its research and development of hypersonic weapons. The AGM-183A hypersonic missile used by the US Air force was finally tested successfully after several failures. Released by a B-52H Stratofortress， it flies over five times the speed of sound. In September， India successfully tested a hypersonic technology demonstration vehicle， making it the fourth country to develop and successfully test hypersonic technology.

Of particular note， in December 2022， SpaceX officially launched its Starshield services based on the technology of Starlink， a key step toward militarization of Starlink. Its main functions are as following： remote sensing of the Earth; transmitting remote sensing data in real-time through the use of Starlink low-orbit communication technology; using Starlink as a common satellite platform; modular hosting of a variety of military payloads; providing services including communications， power supply， and thermal control. It is more invisible， and is able to reduce the cost and technical risk of military satellite deployment. The launch of Starshield is bound to bring new competition and changes in the military field among the major powers.

China takes concrete actions to promote global security governance

Some countries， with evil intentions， continue to create tensions in the Taiwan Strait， bringing more uncertainty and instability around China. But the darkest hour breeds a new dawn， and the fragmented world looks forward to unity. In 2022， China will， as always， uphold the concept of win-win cooperation， promote the building of a human community with a shared future， fulfill its responsibility as a great power， stay on its course even in a volatile situation， and promote peaceful talks. China will always act with concrete actions， resolutely defend national sovereignty and territorial integrity， firmly maintain world peace and regional security， and become the source of certainty in an uncertain world.

At the opening ceremony of the 2022 annual meeting of the Boao Forum for Asia， President Xi Jinping put forward the Global Security Initiative （GSI） with “six commitments” as the core， which has drawn wide attention from the world. The GSI systematically answers the questions of “What security concept the world needs” and “How countries can achieve common security”. It provides practical solutions for countries and regions plagued by security problems to build a new security architecture， shows a path to development for a world in turmoil， and offers guidelines for building a community with a shared future for mankind. This initiative is a practice of the concept of building a community with a shared future for mankind in the field of security. It contributes Chinas wisdom to promoting global security governance and addressing international security challenges. It also guides the way forward to maintaining world peace and tranquility. It is of great practical and historical significance.

In conclusion， the world in 2022 witnessed stability in turmoil， peace in conflict， hope in difficulty， and opportunity in challenge. As the report to the 20th CPC National Congress points out， the historical trends of peace， development， cooperation and mutual benefit are unstoppable. The will of the people and the general trends of our day will eventually lead to a bright future for humanity.

Meng Xiangqing is Specialized Technical Major General of School of National Security at the CPLA National Defence University