Anchor of Stability and Source of Prosperity: International Situation and Chinese Diplomacy 2022

Wang Fan

The international situation continued to change in a complex way in 2022， with accelerating evolution of profound changes unseen in a century. Guided by Xi Jinping Thought on Diplomacy， China calmly met perplexing and profound changes in the international situation， appropriately handled new difficulties and new challenges coming its way， and creatively advanced major-country diplomacy with Chinese characteristics.

Major-Country Relationship Undergoes Reorganization

Under joint impacts of multiple factors such as continued evolution of China-US competition， the outbreak of Russia-Ukraine conflict and its spillover effect， division and reorganization of major-country relationship accelerated in 2022.

First， China-US strategic competition continued to evolve， but the needs for both sides to manage competition was also on the increase. Affected by changes in the world pattern and readjustment of US China strategy， China-US relations underwent major inflection. Over the past two years of the Biden administration， its China policy has featured ideological penetration， selective pressurization， small-blocs building， and impetuosity on trial basis.? The readjustment of US strategy towards China led to rapid increase of uncertainties in the international order at global， regional and bilateral levels. However， in a complex contest， the necessities for both the Chinese and American sides to manage competition were also on the increase. It was in the common interests of both countries to manage their competition and prevent against a free fall slide in their relations. It was against this background that common interests between China and the US were not on the decline but rather on the rise. In his two telephone calls with US President Biden upon the latters requests and in his face to face meeting with the latter held in Bali Island， President Xi Jinping gave an analysis of the essence of China-US relations and pushed the relations back to the right track of healthy and stable development based on the three principles of mutual respect， peaceful coexistence， and mutually beneficial cooperation. Not only did the heads of state diplomacy of the two countries steer clear the course of China-US relations， it also has created more possible space for continued communication between both sides in the future， for the benefit of further exploration of how both countries should relate to each other in the new era.

Second， Russias relations with the West fell to freezing point， with deepening structural contradictions difficult to resolve. Since the outbreak of Russia-Ukraine conflict， Russia and the West have been in a process of sustained confrontation， and even though both sides displayed readiness for dialogue， the structural contradictions between them deepened and became difficult to resolve， a fundamental breakthrough in their relations not being in sight. First of all， Russia and the West had long lacked strategic trust. Secondly， Russias national character of maintaining security in its neighborhood and its actions in promoting reintegration of the Commonwealth of Independent States （CIS） were considered by Western countries as security threat and “imperialist” conduct. Third， internal contradictions between the US and Europe impeded the process of negotiations. As domestic political differences made it difficult for the US to come to agreement with Russia on security issues， within European countries there were different political factions and opinions， and likewise there were differences on the Russian issue， which made it difficult to come to terms on negotiation policy. In short， the West takes Russia for a long term “security threat” that needs to be contained. Between Russia and the West， there is serious antagonism at the strategic concept level such as cognition of international order， geopolitical interests， and values， both sides lacking basic strategic mutual trust， with increasing antagonism on human rights and cybersecurity.

Third， there were more factors of instability arising in US-Europe relations. Currently， Russia-Ukraine conflict was an important factor affecting US-Europe relations. Although the Biden administration actively mended US-Europe relations after taking office， the formation of the AUKUS， a trilateral security pact between Australia， the United Kingdom （UK）， and the US， and US troops pullout from Afghanistan brought new cleavages to US-Europe relations. At the outset of Russia-Ukraine conflict， the US and Europe for a while displayed strong strategic consensus and determination. However， as the conflict perpetuated， division happened within European countries， with right-wing forces coming to the fore. Meanwhile， as Europe became more dependent on the US for security and energy， US control and exploitation of Europe were on the rise. In economic domain， Russia-Ukraine conflict exasperated peoples misgivings about the risks of European “de-industrialization”. US Inflation Reduction Act （IRA） of 2022 heavily subsidizes US made battery electric vehicles， renewable energy and battery industries， posing a serious existential threat to European economy. With perpetuation of Russia-Ukraine conflict and continuation of US “harvesting” interests， even more factors of instability and divisions happened to US-European relations. It was more likely for Europe to once again set store by economic globalization and multilateralism， enhance strategic autonomy， and pursue its own development and international status.

Regional Hot-spot Issues Become Complex

Issues like Russia-Ukraine conflict， the Middle East situation， and the security situation of the Asia-Pacific region became more complex， deficits in global governance intensifying further.

First， Russia-Ukraine conflict set to perpetuate. Since its breakout in February 2022， Russia-Ukraine conflict has lasted for a year， and in the duration， though there were talks between both sides， the spread of the conflict did not stop. Incidents such as the referendum for “accession into Russia” held in four oblasts in East Ukraine， the blast of Nord Stream Pipelines， and the Crimean Bridge explosion led to continued escalation of the conflict. For Russia， its strategic objective was yet to be achieved. At the same time， the West continued to strengthen its assistance to Ukraine and increase the intensity of the latters antagonism with Russia. The Wests control over international public opinion and algorithm enhanced the legitimacy and sustainability of war assistance， the future trends of the crisis being led and manipulated by the US， which had scooped huge interests from Russia-Ukraine conflict and would not quit in the short run.

Second， the Middle East region was deeply submerged in multiple difficulties. At present， although the Middle East situation and relations between countries within the region had relaxed somehow， structural regional contradiction still protruded， and geopolitical effect of Russia-Ukraine conflict also affected the Middle East region， submerging it in profound， multiple difficulties. First of all， the Iran nuclear issue remained an important variable affecting the Middle East situation. Secondly， although Arab-Israel relations had relaxed somewhat， Palestine-Israel conflict still intensified. Third， development among countries within the region was uneven. Iraq， Libya， Syria， Yemen and Lebanon were reduced to even more difficult position. Meanwhile， benefiting from hiking international oil price， Arab states of the Gulf such as Saudi Arabia， the United Arab Emirates （UAE） and Qatar held increasingly greater sway in the regional pattern， with which the US would have closer relationship.

Third， security risks of the Asia-Pacific region kept increasing. On the one hand， in Chinas neighborhood， guided by US Indo-Pacific strategy， mechanisms to contain China were in place， featuring bilateral alliances， the AUKUS， the Indo-Pacific Quadrilateral Dialogue （Quad）， and the Five Eyes （FVEY）， an intelligence alliance comprising Australia， Canada， New Zealand， the UK and the US. On the other hand， the Korean Peninsula， the Taiwan Strait， and the South China Sea remained areas of most protruding security risks. The US was bent to provide its allies with “extended deterrence”， and brought huge security risks to the Korean Peninsula with bluffing military provocations. The South China Sea saw a more intensified contesting posture， with the US increasing the frequency of the so called “free navigation” operations， and advocating antagonism between regional countries. At the same time， the tendency of linkage between regional hot-spots increased， with the US linking Taiwan to the South China Sea， and US-Taiwan military cooperation tending to extend to the South China Sea. Besides， in the Asia-Pacific region， living standard and non-traditional security risks such as the climate change， food security and energy security continued to intensify.

China Is Worlds Anchor of Stability and Source of Prosperity

As pattern changes rarely seen in a century accelerate， mankind faces both unprecedented opportunities of prosperity and development and unheard-of risks and challenges. China in the new era has become the anchor of stability and source of prosperity for the world， its own development and progress creating new opportunities and new contributions to world peace， development and governance.

First， China takes up the mission and responsibility as a major and responsible country， facilitating global stability， economic recovery and development. Beijing 2022 Olympic Winter Games and Beijing 2022 Paralympic Winter Games were a complete success， the international community joining in the grand event and lighting up new hope for mankind to overcome present difficulties and go to the future together in a spirit of unity. As the world suffered the COVID-19 pandemic and its industrial activities came to a standstill， China took the lead in resuming work and production， becoming a tower of strength in stabilizing global industrial and supply chains. As a small number of countries called for “decoupling and chain-breaking”， not only were Chinas major international trade fairs like China International Import Expo （CIIE） and the China International Fair for Trade in Services held on schedule year after year， their size also kept increasing， becoming an important platform to deepen international economic and trade cooperation and bring about renewed vigor of international trade and investment. As some of the countries threaten at every turn to forge a close， exclusive small circle， Chinas Belt and Road Initiative （BRI） has been accorded with positive responses by more and more countries and international organizations， becoming a most popular international public good and platform for international cooperation in the world today.

Second， it actively constructs a new framework for China-US relations while firmly defending its core national interests. China-US relations have long transcended bilateral boundaries and become the most important viable that affect the world pattern. At the summit of heads of state of China and the US held in November 2022 in Bali， Indonesia， the two presidents had a candid and in-depth exchange of views， to manage their differences becoming common concerns of both sides. President Xi Jinping pointed out whether China and the US can handle their relations well matters to the future and destiny of the world. Chinas policy to the US has always been clear-cut and consistent. Summarizing experience and lessons of the development of China-US relations over the past five decades， President Xi put forward principles governing China-US relations in the new era， i.e. the two sides should respect each other， coexist in peace， and pursue win-win cooperation. The Taiwan question is at the very core of Chinas core interests， the bedrock of the political foundation of China-US relations， and the first red line that must not be crossed in China-US relations. China will take resolute and forceful measures to deal with anyone that seek to split Taiwan from China and any of the erroneous words and deed by the American side in interfering with Chinas internal affairs， firmly defending its core national interests.

Third， it continues to deepen China-EU cooperation amid challenges and pattern changes. Since the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China （CPC）， China and Europe have interacted frequently， reflecting the strong resilience of bilateral ties and strong political will for cooperation of both sides. On November 4， 2022， German Chancellor Olaf Scholz visited China. During the G20 Bali Summit between November 15 and 16， President Xi had intensive meetings respectively with leaders of European countries including France， the Netherlands， Spain and Italy. On December 1， European Council President Charles Michel visited China. At his meeting with Michel， President Xi made four observations on the development of China-EU relations： first， it is important to keep the right perception; second， it is important to properly manage differences; third， it is important to carry out cooperation at a higher level; and fourth， it is important to strengthen coordination and cooperation in international affairs. The four observations above made clear the direction for developing current China-EU relations， guiding the relationship to progress steady and go far. High-frequency heads of state diplomacy has promoted China-EU relations to develop gradually， steadily and profoundly.

Fourth， it has deepened China-Russia Comprehensive Strategic Partnership of Coordination in the New Era， furthering cooperation in all domains. In 2022， in face of complicated and turbulent international situation， China-Russia relations continued to maintain favorable growth momentum. In February 2022， President Putin visited China and attended the opening ceremony of Beijing 2022 Olympic Winter Games， both sides signing dozens of cooperation documents and issuing a joint statement. In September， leaders of both sides held a bilateral meeting during the Shanghai Cooperation Organization （SCO） Samarkand Summit， exchanging views on international and regional issues of common concerns. Guided by heads of state diplomacy， the bilateral relationship reached a new height. Taking economic domain for instance， according to statistics from Chinas General Administration of Customs， in the first ten months of 2022， the volume of China-Russia trade exceeded that of the whole year in 2021 and for the first time surpassed US$150 billion， making a new record. In face of a turbulent international situation and the weak recovery of the world economy， China-Russia pragmatic cooperation went against the trend， attaining fruitful results. China-Russia relations kept stepping up to a new level， becoming exemplary of a new type of international relations.

Fifth， it has built on neighborhood security， jointly promoting regional prosperity and development. Guided by heads of state diplomacy， the construction of a community with a shared future between China and countries in its neighborhood took a solid step forward. In January 2022， China and five Central Asian countries held a solemn virtual summit to commemorate the 30th anniversary of diplomatic relations between them， all sides agreeing to set up a collective heads of state meeting mechanism and to build a closer community with a shared future between China and Central Asia. At the same time， the SCO had its new round of expansion， the largest one of that， providing a strong guarantee for peaceful development of the Eurasia continent. During the G20 Bali Summit and the 29th APEC Economic Leaders Meeting， President Xi conducted intensive heads of state diplomacy， expanding all round global partnerships with an open posture， and continuing to promote transformation and upgrading of Chinas neighborhood diplomacy. At the beginning of 2023， at Chinas invitation， Philippine President and Turkmen President made respective state visits to the country， which underlined Chinas determination and political will to actively construct a community with a shared future with its neighboring countries and jointly promote regional prosperity and development.

Sixth， it has practiced genuine multilateralism， leading unity and cooperation of the international community， and promoting innovative development of global governance. At the Boao Forum for Asia Annual Conference 2022， President Xi put forward for the first time the Global Security Initiative （GSI）， contributing Chinese approach to meeting international security challenges and achieving lasting world peace and tranquility， which has been accorded with positive responses in the international community. In June 2022， China announced 32 major measures by the Chinese side to implement the Global Development Initiative （GDI）. At present， over 150 countries and several international organizations including the United Nations （UN） have supported the GDI， with nearly 70 countries joining the Group of Friends of the GDI. In January 2022， the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership （RCEP） entered into force， the worlds largest free trade area formally hitting the ground running. Attending the 22nd Meeting of the Council of Heads of State of the SCO， the 17th Summit of the G20， and the 29th APEC Economic Leaders Meeting in 2022， China boosted international economic and trade cooperation， and actively protected the interests of developing countries. China has staunchly supported the UNs role in global environmental governance， actively promoting global governance on environmental and climate issues. China has persisted in dialogue and consultation， joint construction and shared benefit， win-win cooperation， mutual learning， and green and low carbon economy， making positive contributions to building a new type of international relations and a community with a shared future for mankind.

The great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation in its own right is a part of the cause of world progress. Chinese path to modernization is one of peaceful development， which offers a new option for other countries and nations who want to speed up their development while preserving their independence， having made important contributions to mankinds exploration of different paths to modernization. Looking to the future， facing a complex and grave international situation， Chinese diplomacy will encounter more challenges and risks， and thus must develop all necessary contingency plans to be out of comfort zone and prepare for worst-case scenarios. In a world with increasing uncertainties， Chinas peaceful development could bring stability and promote the construction of a community with a shared future for mankind.

Wang Fan is Professor and President of China Foreign Affairs University