基于MaxEnt的湖北省鵝掌楸屬樹種適宜生態分布區預測

劉華　管蘭華　黃光體　曹健　楊寒　胡超　鮑漢民

摘 要： 通過鵝掌楸屬樹種在湖北省的潛在分布范圍分析，為該屬樹種造林工作提供有力的理論支持。通過使用MaxEnt模型和ArcGIS10模型建立，對鵝掌楸屬樹種在湖北省的適宜生態分布區進行預測，并且對影響鵝掌楸屬樹種分布的主導環境因子進行了分析。MaxEnt模型高精度預測鵝掌楸屬樹種在湖北省的適宜生態分布區范圍，重建模型的測試樣本AUC值為0.894，訓練樣本AUC值為0.886。鵝掌楸屬樹種在湖北省的高適生區面積為336 095 hm2，主要分布在：鄂中的京山市；鄂西的長陽縣、五峰縣、鶴峰縣、利川市和恩施市。中適生區面積為1 975 633 hm2，重點區域為：鄂東的黃梅縣、蘄春縣、陽新縣、赤壁市、通山縣、江夏區、通城縣、大冶市、嘉魚縣、咸安區和崇陽縣；鄂中的孝昌縣、大悟縣和安陸市；鄂西的竹溪縣、遠安縣、夷陵區、建始縣、咸豐縣和宣恩縣。年日最高氣溫≥35.0 ℃日數、年最少降水量、年平均風速、年最大日降水量、年極端最低氣溫、年平均相對濕度和月最長連續降水日數是影響鵝掌楸屬樹種適生區分布的主導氣候因子。基于MaxEnt的鵝掌楸屬樹種在湖北省適宜生態分布區的預測是可行的，可靠性較高，對鵝掌楸屬樹種在湖北省的推廣應用具有促進和指導作用。

關鍵詞： MaxEnt模型；ArcGIS10.0；鵝掌楸屬；生態分布區

中圖分類號：S722.7；S725.1；S792.21 文獻標識碼：A 文章編號：1004-3020（2023）02-0009-07

Prediction of Suitable Ecological Distribution Areas for

Liriodendron in Hubei Province Using MaxEnt Model

Liu Hua（1） Guan Lanhua（1） Huang Guangti（2） Cao Jian（1） Yang Han（1） Hu Chao（1） Bao Hanmin（3）

（1.Management Station of forest tree seedlings of Hubei Provincial Forestry Department Wuhan 430079；

2. Investigation and Planning Institute of Hubei Province Wuhan 430079;

3.Wuhan Dingsen Survery and Planning Co.， ltd Wuhan 430100）

Abstract： The purpose of this study is to predict the potential distribution areas of Liriodendron in Hubei Province， finally to provide strong technical support for the afforestation improvement. By using Maxent Model and ArcGIS10 software for modelling， the suitable ecological distribution areas of Liriodendron were predicted in Hubei Province and the dominant environmental factors affecting the distribution were determined.The prediction of the suitable ecological distribution areas for Liriodendron in Hubei Province was conducted with a high precision degree by reconstruction of MaxEnt Model. The AUC value of test data and training data were 0.894 and 0.886 respectively. The high suitable regions for Liriodendron cover an area of 336 095 hectares， mainly distributed in Jingshan in central Hubei as well as Changyang， Wufeng， Hefeng， Lichuan and Enshi in western Hubei. The medium suitable regions for Liriodendron cover an area of 1 975 633 hectares， mainly distributed in Huangmei， Qichun， Yangxin， Daye， Jiangxia， Jiayu， Chibi， Tongshan， Tongcheng， Xianan and Chongyang in eastern Hubei， Xiaochang， Dawu and Anlu in central Hubei as well as Zhuxi， Yuanan， Yiling， Jianshi， Xianfeng and Xuanen in western Hubei. Annual maximum daily temperature ≥ 35.0 ℃ days， annual minimum precipitation， annual average wind speed， annual maximum daily precipitation， annual extreme minimum temperature， annual average relative humidity and monthly longest continuous precipitation days are dominant climatic factors to determine the suitable distributions for Liriodendron.The prediction of suitable ecological distribution area of Liriodendron in Hubei Province Based on MaxEnt is feasible and reliable， which can promote and guide the popularization and application of Liriodendron in Hubei Province.

Key words： MaxEnt model; ArcGIS10.0; Liriodendron; Ecological distribution areas

[HJ2.2mm]

鵝掌楸屬Liriodendron有鵝掌楸L. chinensis、北美鵝掌楸L. tulipifera和雜交馬褂木Liriodendron×sinoamericanum，鵝掌楸屬樹種葉形奇特，秋葉金黃，樹形端正挺拔，速生，木材紋理直，干燥少開裂，是珍貴用材和園林綠化樹種。……