ABSTRACTS

It is completely wrong to treat and handle China-US relations with the prejudice of Cold War viewing and ideology. Firstly, the difference in social systems does not mean that China and the United States will inevitably move toward confrontation. Secondly, the changes of the times have overturned the basis of the theory of the “Thucydides Trap”. Thirdly, China is a participant and contributor to the existing international order, not a challenger and disruptor. Fourthly, China’s development brings opportunities rather than threats to the world. It is hoped that through restarting and improving the multi-level communication mechanism between China and the United States, consolidate mutual trust through reshaping China-US economic and trade relations, and deepen mutual trust through global governance cooperation, so as to achieve non-conflict, non-confrontation, mutual respect, and win-win cooperation between China and the United States.

The foreign-related financial security issues under the background of China’s rise are mainly manifested in three aspects, the security issues of capital account opening, the security issues of foreign exchange reserve assets or foreign exchange assets, and the security issues of the international payment and settlement system. The external cause of China’s foreign-related financial security issues is that the domestic currency does not have the international status of a reserve currency, therefore, it is necessary to obtain reserve currency from outside, which is bound to lack security; The credit of the RMB exchange rate relies on the endorsement of reserve currencies such as the U.S. dollar, and the rise of China’s economy once relied on the U.S. dollar surplus; The United States can use US dollar accounts to impose administrative penalties, restrictions, freezes and other sanctions on funds, asset transactions, cross-border payment settlements, etc., and even eliminate the account system. The internal reason is the rise of China’s economy, and the United States wants to suppress and sanction; If financial liberalization has improperly handled on the choice of exchange rate system, foreign exchange control, and the reserve currency funds are allowed to enter and exit completely without restriction, there is bound to be the possibility of a financial crisis; The imbalance of international payments has led to a lack of security in foreign-related finance. The resolution of foreign-related financial security issues should start from four aspects: The first is to ensure the security of foreign exchange (reserve) assets through currency swaps and diversified investments; the second is to establish a trading and payment settlement system by advocating sovereign currency pricing, payment, settlement, financing, and the development of related system design; The third is to grasp the capital account opening; the fourth is enhance the basis of RMB internationalization.

Since the international financial crisis, the trend of the world economic pattern rising in the east and falling in the west is notable. The status of Asian economies in the global economy is constantly rising. Especially under the COVID-19, East Asian economies took the lead in recovering and have become the center of the world economy. Asia has always been a key area for China to manage its neighboring diplomacy. How to use this area well and actively create a prosperous and stable surrounding environment and a period of development opportunities is of great practical significance for China to shape and develop global partnerships and deepen relations with neighboring countries, and it will help exert China’s leadership as a major country and enhance its international influence. Especially in the context of intensified China-U.S. trade frictions and the global pandemic of the COVID-19, discuss and analyze the strategies and policy trends of Asian economic development, explore new ideas and new paths for Asian economic and trade cooperation, and take the initiative to win the China-US strategic game and promote high-quality Development has special significance, and it is also conducive to promoting countries in the region to strengthen mutual trust and mutually beneficial cooperation and maintain the stability and prosperity of Asia. The free trade area strategy has become one of the strategic commanding heights of competition among major powers, and it is a general trend to improve the standards and quality of free trade areas. Analyzing regional economic and trade agreements, Asian industrial chain transfer trends, and opportunities and challenges to China will help take precautions, and have early plans for striving initiative. Based on the analysis of these major issues, it puts forward the urgent major issues and the new ideas of cooperation which in the development of Asian Economic and Trade Cooperation, and China can gain plans and suggestions.

This article mainly uses trade general equilibrium model counterfactual simulation to quantitatively analyze the impact of possible comprehensive trade friction between China and the United States on the export structure and industrial structure of the two countries. The results show that the traditional export advantages of China and the United States have suffered relatively large negative impacts in the China-US trade frictions, China’s export concentration rate has declined, while the United States has not changed much; The total trade friction between China and the United States will lead to a decrease in the output share of China’s manufacturing industry, while the output share of primary industries and service industries has increased; Reduction in the share of manufacturing output that is more severely impacted by tariffs, which will lead to a decrease in the output share of the related producer services. In the future, China should strengthen its strategic focus and strategic self-confidence, and actively use international rules to deal with international trade frictions, meanwhile, further deepen the supply-side reforms in terms of industrial chain, supply chain and innovation, and promote the optimization and upgrading of the industrial structure.

With the continuous development of Internet finance and digital economy, the Korean government has made the fintech industry an important part of its economic growth strategy. The Regulatory Sandbox mechanism has formed a complete set of operating models and institutional systems consisting of process design, organizational structure, access standards, evaluation mechanism, consumer protection and exit standards. The Korean government has also continuously improved relevant supporting policies. Based on the Korean experience, China should establish and improve laws and regulations, formulate a long-term plan for the development of the Regulatory Sandbox, clarify the access system, evaluation feedback mechanism, exit mechanism and risk compensation system, and foster the coordinated ecosystem to enhance the international competitiveness of China’s fintech industry.

Under the new round of technological revolution and industrial transformation, the deep integration of a new generation of information technology and manufacturing has promoted the highlighting of innovative functions, enhanced value-added capabilities and upgrades of factor inputs in the manufacturing process, thereby increasing the manufacturing process in the global value chain. Relative status. The use of new manufacturing technologies is reconstructing the competitive advantages of the manufacturing industry in developed countries. With the backflow of manufacturing industries, the participation of developed countries in the manufacturing links of the global value chain has increased. The adjustment of the global value chain has caused China’s manufacturing industry to face more uncertain external environment, while at the same time providing a window of opportunity for the manufacturing industry to climb to the middle-high level of the value chain. China should beware of premature “Deindustrialization”, and respond to the adjustment of the global value chain through strategies such as promoting high-level opening up, improving the integration and innovation capabilities of a new generation of information technology and manufacturing, deepening the potential of domestic demand, vigorously developing the producer service industry, and participating in global economic governance.

After the global financial crisis, the world economy has entered a period of deep adjustment. With the rise of Populism and Trade protectionism, the tide of anti-globalization, and the impact of the Covid-19, the existing global industrial chain structure has been greatly challenged, and it is facing the pressure of restructuring the organizational structure and geographic structure. At the same time, the relative change of various countries’ factor cost and the development of emerging technologies also promote the continuous adjustment of the global industrial chain. Under the mutual game of multiple forces, the future restructuring of the global industrial chain will show four characteristics: (1) Regional agglomeration driven by market and final demand orientation; (2) Supplier diversification and key industry localization driven by safety orientation; (3) Gradient transfer of the industrial chain driven by cost and technology orientation; (4) The transformation of industrial production methods and refined products of service industry driven by digital technology and artificial intelligence.

In recent years, “third-party market” cooperation has developed rapidly, and it has become an important innovative cooperation model for building consensus among multiple parties and achieving mutual benefit. Considering that “third-party market” cooperation is a complex system project, China’s advocacy and promotion of “third-party market” cooperation under the “the Belt and Road Initiatives” is obviously not suitable for the average effort of “wild flooding irrigation”. Therefore, in order to better complement each other’s advantages and achieve all-win situation for multiple parties, China and relevant parties are developing “third-party market” cooperation, and exploring the medium-powered countries as the priority direction and key target of third-party market cooperation under the framework of the “The Belt and Road”. By giving play to the unique role and comparative advantages of the medium powers, the medium powers will be turned into the fulcrum of the “The Five-Connectivity Program” layout and regional cooperation, this can not only reduce the vicious friction and homogeneous competition in the construction of the “The Belt and Road”, but also enhance and optimize the resources and operational efficiency of “third-party market” cooperation.

Editor：Zhao Ze