英文摘要

Bidens Foreign Policy in A Transformed World— A Panel Discussion

ZHU Feng et al.

Abstract： With growing political polarization at home， the Biden administration is prioritizing economic recovery， pandemic containment， and social justice. In terms of foreign policy， restoring U.S. leadership will be the top concern for President Biden， who is expected to revive the multilateralist approach to an increasingly fragmented world order. Nonetheless， considering the popularity of some of Trumps policies and the bipartisan consensus on such issues as the growing China threat， Biden is likely to retain some of his predecessors policies while making necessary adjustments to others. Specifically， President Biden will continue Trumps China-focused Asia policy. U.S.-EU relations will be strengthened， while Washingtons relations with Moscow will be affected by the complex diplomacy among China， Russia， the United States， and the European Union. President Biden is also expected to mitigate the negative effects of his predecessors reckless policies on global health governance， but act cautiously on pushing further economic integration in Asia before a comprehensive review is completed. In anticipation of both continuity and change in U.S. foreign policy， Beijing should work hard to prevent further deterioration of the bilateral relationship and create a stable international environment for its own development.

Keywords： the Biden administration， great power politics， international order， health governance， science and technology policy

The Biden Administrations Global Climate Policy and Chinas Response

YU Hongyuan， ZHANG Xiaoran， and WANG Wanfa

Abstract： Climate politics in the United States has long been cyclical. The Biden administration has， from the outset， emphasized leading the clean energy revolution and returning to global climate governance. President Biden also attaches great importance to domestic clean energy development， science-based climate debate， and a multilateralist approach to climate governance. Drawing on the Obama administrations climate policy， Biden aims to bolster Washingtons leadership position in global climate affairs. The Biden administration is expected to strengthen science and technology innovation， demand stimulation， investment in infrastructure， and other measures to integrate clean energy into the U.S. economy， while further prioritizing climate diplomacy in U.S. foreign relations. The Biden administration has integrated allies， summit diplomacy， economic and trade cooperation， foreign aid， regional cooperation into its climate diplomacy， and highlighted the relevance of climate change to security and human rights. The new administration is likely to pursue a limited cooperative relationship with China. Although U.S.-China cooperation may help advance the implementation of the Paris Agreement and boost a global low-carbon economy， there is still competition between China and the United States in such areas as climate governance leadership and global low-carbon standards.

Keywords： U.S. diplomacy， China-U.S. relations， climate governance， Paris Agreement

The Evolution of EU-NATO Relations and What to Expect during the Biden Administration

ZHENG Chunrong and NI Xiaoshan

Abstract： Since the introduction of the European Unions Common Security and Defense Policy， there has been a long-running debate on the relationship between the EU and NATO pitting those who argue for a substitutional relationship against those who regard the two as complementary. The debate centers on four dimensions： values， threat assessment and strategic culture， military and civilian capabilities， and defense industry and expenditures. Since Brexit and Donald Trumps election， the relationship between the EU and NATO have undergone some significant changes in the four dimensions. First， with the return of U.S. unilateralism under President Trump， value divergences between Washington and Brussels have become more prominent. Second， despite the differences， threat perceptions in the United States and EU remain similar， with increasing support for the integrated use of military and civilian means. Third， the EU and NATO promote their complementary comparative advantages， but the EUs goal of strengthening its military has touched a nerve in NATO. Fourth， the EU and NATO still seek to strengthen cooperation despite concerns about the EUs increased investment in defense industry. Even as competition increases， the EU and NATO remain each others chief security partner， and cooperation will still define their relationship going forward. With President Bidens traditional worldview and multilateralist diplomacy， a new convergence is expected between the EU and NATO so long as Brussels pursuit of strategic autonomy does not come at the expense of the U.S. goal of transatlantic burden sharing.

Keywords： European Union， Common Security and Defense Policy， NATO， transatlantic relations， the Biden administration

Mutual Socialization： Chinas Approach to An Evolving International Order

YOU Qiming

Abstract： The international order is a community composed of various actors such as countries and international organizations. It includes not only the rules and norms on membership and interactions among members， but also a hierarchy reflecting the distribution of power and interests. Mutual socialization is a process in which the rising power and the rest of the international order make adjustment together in order to reach a consensus on the rules and norms， the distribution of benefits， and the status and behavior of the rising power. It is usually marked by negotiations in the adjustment process， consensus on adjustment goals， and uncertainty of adjustment results. The rising power may adopt a strategy of “reform + assurance” to facilitate the process of mutual socialization. It can take the initiative to reform the international order， improve the governance of the order， and enhance its own status in the order. In addition， the rising power also needs to show a goodwill in words and deeds to gain international recognition and support. Chinas engagement with the rest of the order， for example， by promoting reform and global governance， expanding its influence， and fulfilling commitments， is in line with the pattern. Going forward， Beijing should further promote this process of mutual socialization by showing greater goodwill， stabilizing its relations with the United States， advocating incremental reforms of the current order， and finding the most cost-effective way to optimize an external environment for the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.

Keywords： international order， Chinese approach， socialization， anti-socialization， mutual socialization

The Political Identity of American Generation Z College Students： Polarization and Its Causes

ZHOU Shun

Abstract： The political identity of Generation Z college students in the United States has shown a clear trend of polarization， with an overwhelming proportion of the youth population further tilting to the left. On the one hand， this trend is in line with the broader political polarization in recent years. But on the other hand， it also reflects a unique， generational shift. From the perspective of social psychology， this trend is due to several underlying causes， including a cyclical pattern of political passion， the college campuss growing role as incubator of polarization， the amplifying effects of “safe space construction” and “micro-agression，” and social medias echo chamber effect. Generation Z college students participated in the 2020 presidential election with an “against the common enemy” mentality and set a record high voter turnout. This trend has added a new layer of uncertainty to Sino-U.S. relations. The use of social media may further amplify “Gen Z” college students hostility to China. A growing “victim psychology” may result in a more negative evaluation of Beijings human rights record. Their receding line of defense in terms of safe space construction may arouse greater resistance to Chinas overseas cultural exchange programs. The polarization of political identity of “Generation Z” college students and the political ecology on college campuses will be an important reference to evaluate the future direction of American politics.

Keywords： political identity， polarization， Generation Z， American Creed

Emerging Technology Governance in the United States： Ideas and Practice

YIN Nannan and LIU Guozhu

Abstract： The importance and urgency of governance of emerging technologies is underscored by the potential subversive， revolutionary， and destructive nature of new technologies. In the midst of a growing Sino-U.S. technology competition， there are important economic value and symbolic meaning in the actual effectiveness of emerging technology governance. At the same time， the high degree of uncertainty of emerging technologies is a stress test for Americas technology governance architecture and capabilities， which are undergoing a protectionist and nationalist turn. The revolutionary nature of emerging technologies has caused the United States technological governance capabilities to lag behind the speed of technological development. A fragmented governance architecture and the lack of effective coordination mechanisms at home are handicapping technology governance. In addition， the securitization of technology governance is impeding international cooperation. The Biden administration is committed to modernizing U.S. technology governance architecture and capabilities at home and pursuing a multilateralist strategy to restrict and block the development of Chinas emerging technologies. In its approach to technology governance， the Biden administration is expected to resort to both flexible measures and stringent ones. It is also expected to strengthen the role of science and scientists in technology governance by reviving the Presidents Scientific Advisory Committee and strengthening scientific integrity. Technological skepticism will be emphasized to adopt stricter review and oversight of the development of emerging technologies. Moreover， the fundamental role of basic research may be reaffirmed in the governance of emerging technologies.

Keywords： emerging technology governance， techno-nationalism， geopolitics， alliance strategy， the Biden administration

RCEP： Characteristics， Challenges， and Prospects

ZHANG Tiangui

Abstract： The conclusion of RCEP as the worlds largest free trade arrangement not only helps improve regional trade and investment environment， strengthen regional supply chains， and promote economic recovery， but also gives further impetus to regional economic integration， global trade liberalization， and a rule-based multilateral trading system. An important milestone for Chinas opening-up drive， the pan-Asian deal is expected to boost Chinas trade and investment in a post-pandemic world as Beijing continues to upgrade its FTA strategy. Boasting wider market access， updated rules， and strengthened cooperation， the agreement is expected to further bolster the ASEAN way and ASEAN centrality. In the process of implementation and upgrade， RCEP is faced with several challenges， such as member states competing interests， the influence of external factors， incompatible rules of existing FTAs， lack of regional solidarity， and great power politics. China should support the ASEAN centrality as always， and promote the early entry into force of the agreement. Beijing should also speed up the free trade talks with Japan， South Korea， Southeast Asian nations， and ASEAN members to create a better business environment through institutional opening-up.

Keywords： RCEP， free trade agreement， the ASEAN Way， U.S. factor， Chinas role

U.S.-Japan Trade Talks in the 21st Century and Implications for China

ZHANG Yongtao

Abstract： At the beginning of the 21st century， American and Japanese experts discussed the possibility of opening bilateral FTA negotiations. As the outcome of the first phase of trade negotiations， the U.S.-Japan Trade Agreement and U.S.-Japan Digital Trade Agreement entered into force on January 1， 2020. The launch of the negotiations in the new century appears to be the result of U.S. increasing automobile tariffs in order to reduce the huge trade deficit with Japan. In fact， the launch and progress of the U.S.-Japan Trade Agreement negotiations are the outcome of the comprehensive interaction between the economic interests， bilateral relations， geopolitics and power games between the two countries. The U.S.-Japan Trade Agreement negotiations have increased the possibility for the Washington to return to the TPP in order to balance China， create conditions for the United States and Japan to work together to establish digital trade rules that may squeeze Chinas development space， and set up a template for asymmetric power negotiations. The impact of the U.S.-Japan trade negotiations on China is not obvious in the short term， but will be felt in the medium and long term. In particular， under the new political and economic circumstances， such as the coronavirus pandemic and its economic and social fallout， change of government in the United States and Japan， the completion of the China-EU investment agreement， and Chinas intention to join the CPTPP， an in-depth analysis of the trade negotiations will help China prepare for an effective response.

Keywords： U.S.-Japan trade negotiations， free trade， FTA， RCEP