歐亞聯通　圓夢一場百年的憧憬

Eurasia connectivity： a century-old aspiration

請用三分鐘介紹一下中國的“一帶一路”倡議。這是筆者常常遇到的挑戰，甚至常有老外要求用一句話給“一帶一路”下定義。

2016年2月2日下午，筆者應德國外交部邀請在“盤點中國的‘一帶一路’倡議”內部研討會上，本來要求十分鐘介紹“一帶一路”進展與中歐互聯互通平臺時，又遇到了這種情形。德國外交國務秘書和大使在開幕式致辭時拋出一系列問題：“一帶一路”到底想干什么？是否意味著歐亞大陸地緣政治的回歸？如何處理與歐盟睦鄰政策、中亞政策的關系？與歐盟、歐安組織的互聯互通計劃如何對接？……筆者發言時先得占用正式發言的三分鐘做出簡潔回應。當晚，應我國駐德國大使館邀請，在“全球之橋”（global bridge）晚宴上，又用三分鐘向在座的德國聯邦議員、企業家和美國前駐德國大使、記者闡述“一帶一路”。

如果一句話來描述“一帶一路”，就是互聯互通，實現包容性全球化。

為什么說全球化不夠包容？自從古絲綢之路中斷后，歐洲人走向海洋，通過地理大發現殖民世界，開啟所謂的全球化。然而，這是真正的全球化嗎？打開“夜晚的世界”圖可以發現，只有日本、北美和歐洲發達國家沿海地區燈火輝煌，證明實現了現代化，而在世界的其他地方衛星上看不到燈光，依然生活在“貧困的黑暗”之中，所以“一帶一路”就是要讓所有人在晚上都有電，見到光，這才是搞工業化。按照世界銀行數據，當今世界產出的80%來自于沿海地區的一百公里的地帶，因為地球71%的面積被海洋覆蓋，90%的貿易通過海洋進行。這種西方中心的海洋型“全球化”其實是“部分全球化”（partial globalization），我們還需要更多的互聯互通，幫助內陸地區尋找海洋，幫助南南國家實現工業化，助推人類文明的共同復興，打造更包容的全球化（inclusive globalization）.

如何實現歐亞互聯互通？15世紀奧斯曼土耳其帝國的崛起切斷了兩千年的古絲綢之路，歐洲人被迫走向海洋，導致歐亞大陸文明的衰落。重振絲綢之路成為絲綢之路沿線許多國家的共同夢想。然而自古以來，打通歐亞大陸靠戰爭、靠征服，從大流士、亞歷山大、愷撤、奧斯曼、成吉思汗到近代的西方殖民戰爭。人類步入鐵路時代，歐亞鐵路計劃為實現歐亞大陸互聯互通的百年夢想提供技術支撐。于是有了德國一戰前的柏林一巴格達鐵路規劃，有了聯合國開發計劃署的歐亞大陸橋設想。在人類從傳統鐵路邁入高速鐵路的進程中，中國實現了彎道超車，在短短10年時間修建了2萬公里的高鐵（占世界的3/4以上），一躍成為高鐵大國、高鐵強國。這就是中國提出“一帶一路”的底氣。而中國充足的外匯儲備和強大的建造能力，則是“一帶一路”建設的重要資本。

“一帶一路”提出實現“五通”：政策溝通、設施聯通、貿易暢通、資金融通、民心相通，這就從時間上超越歐洲一體化的商品、勞動力、服務及貨幣的四大自由流通;空間上實現陸海聯通，東西呼應，實現規模、系統效應，才能徹底降低物流成本，提升內陸地區的比較競爭力，讓歐亞大陸互聯互通計劃獲得可持續發展，超越了古絲綢之路與傳統全球化。

在“一帶一路”框架下，圓夢歐亞大陸互聯互通的百年憧憬，攜手開創全球化3.0版，融通中國夢與世界夢：

如果我們把作為古代東西方貿易與文明交流之路的絲綢之路稱為全球化1.0時代：其單元是文明，載體是歐亞大陸，動力是貿易+文化，遵循的“和平合作、開放包容、互學互鑒、互利共贏”的絲路精神;把近代西方開創的全球化稱為全球化2.0時代：以民族國家為單元，通過海洋實現全球貿易+投資擴張，確立西方中心世界：那么，“一帶一路”是21世紀的跨洲際合作倡議，不只是打通歷史上中斷的絲綢之路，而是借助絲綢之路的歷史概念，開創創新型全球化——全球化3.0時代：秉承“萬物互聯”（ANT all things connected），運用3D打印機、大數據和智慧城市，推動E-WTO進程，開發和應用包容性技術——改變傳統技術讓強者更強、弱者更弱的狀態，創新和實施包容性制度安排——推動國際貿易、投資規則更加公正、合理、包容，開創包容性全球化——實現持久和平、共同繁榮的千年夢想。

“Please brief on China's Belt and Road Initiativewithin three minutes." This is a question I alwaysmeet， and some foreigners even ask me to give adefinition of the Belt and Road with one sentence.

In the afternoon on February 2， 2016， I was invitedby German Federal Foreign Office for an internalsenunar themed "Taking stock of China's Belt andRoad Initiative". Originally I was asked to introduce theprogress of the Initiative and "EU-China ConnectivityPlatform" within 10 minutes， yet I encountered thesame question again. At the opening ceremony， the StateSecretary of the Federal Foreign Office， Germany， raisedquestions one afier another： what's the purpose of theBelt and Road？ Does it mean the regression of Eurasia'sgeopolitics？ How to balance its relations with the EU'sGood Neighbor Policy and Central Asia policy？ Howto get it integrated with the connectivity plans of EUand the Organization for Security and Co-operation inEurope （OSCE）？ I was asked to spare three minutesfrom my formal speech to answer these questionsconcisely. At that evening， I attended the "GlobalBridge" banquet at the invitation of Chinese embassyin Germany. Once again，l briefed on the Belt and Roadfor Bundestag members， entrepreneurs， former U.S.ambassador to Germany， and reporters within threeminutes.

The Belt and Road can be described as "connectivityand inclusive globalization".

Globalization is not inclusive enough， why？ Sinceancient Silk Road was disrupted， Europeans started toembrace the sea， and then colonized the world throughthe Age of Discovery. Yet， is it globalization in realsense？ Open the map of "the world at night"， youcan see that well-illuminated belts can only be foundin Japan， North America， and developed Europeancountries， where modemization has been realized;yet no light can be found in other parts of the worldfrom a satellite， where people are still living in "thedarkness of poverty". The Belt and Road is designedto make people around the world have access topower and light at night， which is the prerequisite ofindustrialization. Data of the World Bank shows that80% of world output comes from the lOOkm-belt ofcoastal regions. With 71% of earth surface covered bysea， 90% of trade has been done via sea. Such West-centric ocean-based "globalization" is actually "partialglobalization". That is why we need to realize greaterconnectivity： help inland regions to find sea， helpsouth-south countries to realize industrialization， pushfor the common revitalization of human civilizations，and build more inclusive globalization.

How to realize Eurasia connectivity？ In the15th century the rise of Ottoman Empire cut off thetwo millennia-old ancient Silk Road. As a result，Europeans were forced to walk into the ocean，hencethe decline of Eurasia civilization. It is the sharedaspiration of many countries along the Silk Roadto revitalize the route. Yet since ancient times， fromDarius I （the Great）， Alexander the Great， JuliusCaesar， Osman I， Genghis Khan， to westem colonistsin modern times， they all connected different partsof Eurasia through wars and conquering. Enteringrailway age， Eurasian railway project has providedteclmological support for Eurasia connectivity，a century-old aspiration. Then came the Berlin-Baghdad railway planning， and the UNDP's visionof Eurasia Land Bridge. As conventional railway isreplaced by high-speed rail， China has realized cornerovertaking： building 20，000 kilometers （more thanthree quarters ofthe world total） of high-speed railwaywithin 10 years and thus emerging as a big powerof high-speed railway. These achievements makeChina confident enough to propose the Belt and Road.Meanwhile， China boasts abundant foreign exchangereserve and construction capability， which underpinthe Belt and Road.

The Belt and Road Initiative features five targets：policy coordination， facilities connectivity unimpededtrade， financial integration， and people-to-peoplebond. In time dimension， it will enable the free flowof commodities， labor， services， and currencies whichwere not aclueved by the European Integration. Inspace dimension， it will connect land and sea， andWest and East， realize scaled system effects， thusreducing logistics costs once for all and enhancing thecomparative competitiveness of inland regions. In thisway， Eurasia connectivity plan will realize sustainabledevelopment while transcending ancient Silk Roadand traditional globalization.

The Belt and Road Initiative is designed to realizethe century-old aspiration of Eurasia connectivity andintegrate Chinese Dream and the world's dream byjointly launching Globalization 3.0.

If we call the ancient Silk Road， which enabledwestern and eastern trade and cultural exchanges，as an era of Globalization l.0， then its unit wascivilization， vehicle was Eurasia， and driver wastrade + culture， in following the Silk Road spirit of"peaceful cooperation， openness and inclusiveness，mutual learning， and win-win"; if we call the modernWest-initiated globalization as Globalization 2.0，then its unit was national state， and ocean was usedto realize global trade + investment expansion and tobuild a West-centric world; then the Belt and Roadis a transcontinental cooperation initiative of the21st century and aims at not only connecting theonce-broken Silk Road， but more importantly， usingthe historic concept of Silk Road to embark on anew era of innovation-driven globalization， namelyGlobalization 3.0： following the vision of "ANT allthings connected"， 3D printer， big data and smart citywill be leveraged to push for E-WTO， and developand apply inclusive technologies. While breakingaway from the outdated rule of"let the strong strongerand the weak weaker"， efforts will be made to identifyand implement inclusive institutional arrangements，realize fairer， more rational and inclusive internationaltrade and investment rules， bring about inclusiveglobalization， and materialize the millennia-old dreamof enduring peace and common prosperity.