當前我國農業生產中的養分需求分析

李書田，劉曉永，何萍, 2

（1 中國農業科學院農業資源與農業區劃研究所，北京 100081；2 國際植物營養研究所北京辦事處，北京 100081）

當前我國農業生產中的養分需求分析

李書田1,2，劉曉永1，何萍1, 2

（1 中國農業科學院農業資源與農業區劃研究所，北京 100081；2 國際植物營養研究所北京辦事處，北京 100081）

【目的】估算當前我國不同區域農業生產中的養分需求和化肥需求，對如何實現2020年化肥零增長以及零增長下如何進行養分資源的合理分配、科學管理和施用具有重要的指導意義和參考價值。【方法】本研究依據國家統計最新數據、研究結果和文獻資料，以省級為單元，系統估算了農作物、林地、草地、水產養殖全面實現平衡施肥條件下對氮磷鉀養分的需求量。在考慮有機肥養分有效還田基礎上，分析當前化肥消費量與化肥需求量的差異。【結果】當前我國農業生產需要氮磷鉀養分共8410萬t，其中N 3746萬t、P2O52024萬t、K2O 2640萬t，糧食作物、蔬菜/瓜果、果樹和茶葉、油料作物、纖維作物、糖料作物、飼草/草地、水產養殖的養分需求分別占總需求的41.8%、20.8%、13.1%、5.1%、2.3%、2.1%、10.6%和2.2%。華北、長江中下游、西北、西南、東南、東北地區的養分需求分別占20.3%、23.2%、18.8%、16.8%、11.1%和9.8%，其中山東、河南和四川對養分的需求高于其他省份。當前全國化肥消費量為6023萬t，其中N、P2O5、K2O分別為3001萬t、1943萬t和1079萬t，東北、華北、長江中下游、東南、西南、西北地區的化肥消費量分別占全國化肥消費量的10.6%、27.7%、24.4%、11.5%、11.4%、14.2%。我國當前有機肥養分資源潛力為N 3200萬t、P2O51440萬t和K2O 3400萬t，但還田的有效養分約為N 484萬t、P2O5411萬t和K2O 1273萬t。有機肥還田主要在河北、河南、山東、四川和湖南省，其次是廣東、廣西、云南，而西北、東北及東南沿海地區各省有機肥還田的有效養分量相對較少。化肥消費與需求差表明，全國氮肥和鉀肥供應不足，分別虧缺約N 261萬t和K2O 288萬t，而磷肥投入過量約P2O5330萬t。但不同省份和區域間化肥供需具有較大差異，東北、華北、長江中下游或東南地區的一些省份如吉林、河北、河南、山東、安徽、江蘇、湖北、廣東省氮磷鉀肥均過量，而西北和西南地區多數省份的化肥投入不足。【結論】糧食作物是養分需求的主體，其次是蔬菜和果樹。在全面實現平衡施肥的情況下，氮、鉀肥投入不足，磷肥投入過量。養分需求地區間差異明顯，東北、華北、長江中下游和東南沿海地區需適當減少肥料消費，而西北和西南地區需要依據需求適量增加肥料的投入。

養分需求；化肥消費量；化肥需求量；有機肥養分；肥料差

建國以來我國人口不斷增加，到2015年達13.75億[1]，因此需要在有限的耕地上生產越來越多的糧、棉、油、水果、蔬菜及其他農產品以滿足人口不斷增長的需求。而作物生產離不開植物營養，化肥是作物的糧食。國內外研究表明，化肥施用對糧食增產的貢獻為40%～60%[2–3]。1978年到2015年，我國糧食總產從3.1億t增加到6.57億t，年均增長率為2.1%，近20年來水果和蔬菜產量年均增長率分別為 6.4%和9.8%，與此同時氮、磷、鉀化肥消費量也從880萬t增加到6023萬t，年均增長率達到5.3%[1]。由此說明，化肥在我國糧食產量增加和保證糧食安全中起著不可替代的支撐作用，可以說沒有化肥就沒有中國農業的發展，也就不可能有糧食總產十連增。當前我國已成為世界化肥消費大國，消費量占世界化肥消費量的1/3以上，施用上存在一系列不合理現象，如，部分地區作物上施肥過量、化肥利用率低、環境污染風險等。因此，估算當前我國不同區域農業生產中的養分需求和化肥需求，對如何實現化肥零增長和零增長下如何進行養分的科學管理具有重要的意義和參考價值。許多研究者在不同階段針對農業生產的特點和人口對糧食需求等對我國化肥的需求量進行一系列研究、分析與預測[4–8]，對指導我國化肥的生產、分配和施用起到了重要的指導作用，但這些研究數據需要進一步更新與完善。隨著種植業結構的改變、高產品種應用、果樹蔬菜種植面積不斷增加以及經濟林、人工草地和水產養殖面積不斷擴大等，使得農業生產對養分的需求將會進一步增加并發生很大變化[9–10]。再加上近期中國政府提出全面實現平衡施肥，到2020年實現化肥零增長目標，如何實現這一目標并利用現有肥料資源保持我國農業生產穩步增長，是植物營養學科面臨的新任務和挑戰。因此，弄清當前農業生產全面實現平衡施肥前提下對養分和化肥的需求，對如何實現化肥零增長目標非常必要。本研究依據統計數據、前期試驗研究和文獻資料在省級尺度上開展以下研究：1) 當前農業生產(包括農作物、林地、草地、水產養殖)對氮、磷、鉀的需求；2) 畜禽糞肥和秸稈養分的有效還田量；3) 化肥需求與消費差異。

1 材料與方法

1.1 養分需求

基于農業生產中農作物、林地、草地和水產養殖面積和推薦施肥量計算。農作物種植面積參照2015年國家統計局數據[1]；林地面積包括竹林、速生樹種和育苗面積[11]；草地面積是牧草種植面積，指年末保留種草面積[12]；水產養殖面積指淡水養殖，包括池塘、河溝、湖泊和水庫養魚[13]。農作物推薦施肥量基于國際植物營養研究所 (IPNI) 前期多年試驗數據和參考文獻而得 (表1)，林地、草地、水產養殖推薦施肥量依據參考文獻的平均施肥量 (表2)。各地區養分 (N、P2O5、K2O) 需求計算如下：

表 1 各種作物的養分推薦施用量Table 1 Nutrient recommendation for various crops

式中：i表示第i種作物；Aci表示第i作物種植面積(萬hm2)；Fci表示第i種作物推薦施肥量 (kg/hm2)；Fa、Ga、Aqa分別表示林地、草地和水產養殖面積(萬hm2)；Ff、Gf、Aqf分別表示林地、草地和水產養殖推薦施肥量 (kg/hm2)。

表 2 經濟林、草地和水產養殖的養分推薦施用量 (kg/hm2)Table 2 Nutrient recommendations for economic forest, grassland and aquaculture

1.2 化肥消費量

化肥消費量按照2015年統計的各省化肥消費量計算[1]，氮、磷、鉀化肥消費量包括單質化肥和復合肥，其中復合肥部分的氮、磷、鉀比例不清楚，需進行估算。本研究中復合肥的氮、磷、鉀比例按照《2015全國農產品成本收益資料匯編》[149]中各地區各種作物上磷酸一銨、磷酸二銨、復合 (混) 肥的施用量計算而得 (表 3)。

1.3 有機肥還田的有效養分量

通過畜禽糞肥、人糞尿和秸稈還田的養分量參照我們最近的研究數據[150]。通過人糞尿還田的數量按照每人每年帶入農田 N 1.0 kg、P2O50.57 kg、K2O 0.30 kg，分別相當于資源量的18.5%、28.1%和15.9%。畜禽糞肥和秸稈還田的養分以有機態養分為主，需經礦化釋放出無機態養分才能被作物吸收利用。因此，通過畜禽糞便和秸稈還田的養分對當季作物并不都是有效的，只有當季釋放出的養分才能供作物吸收利用。因此，畜禽糞肥和秸稈還田的有效養分量 = 養分還田量×當季養分釋放率 (%)。其中，當季養分釋放率是參考有關文獻資料計算而得的平均釋放率 (表4)

1.4 肥料差

肥料差指化肥消費量與化肥需求量之差，計算如下：

肥料差 = 化肥消費量 – 化肥需求量

其中：化肥消費量為2015年國家統計局的化肥消費數據；化肥需求量 = 養分需求量 – 有機肥還田的有效養分量；肥料差為正值，說明化肥投入過量，肥料差為負值，說明化肥投入不足。

2 結果與分析

2.1 養分需求

通過作物的播種面積和養分推薦施用量計算出作物對N、P2O5、K2O的需求分別為3746萬t、2024萬t和2640萬t，共約8410萬t。其中，糧食作物包括谷類、豆類和薯類的養分需求約占總需求的41.8%，蔬菜/瓜果占20.6%，果樹和茶葉占13.1%，油料、纖維和糖料分別占5.1%、2.3%和2.1%，草地約占10.6%，水產養殖占2.2% (表5)。

本研究按照中國糧食主產區劃分區域[172]進行分析和討論 (下同)。不同地區作物不同，因此養分需求也存在差異 (圖1)。農作物主要種植區如華北地區和長江中下游地區則需要的養分較多，兩個地區養分需求分別占全國總需求的20.3%和23.2%。其次是西北地區和西南地區，分別占18.8%和16.8%，東北地區和東南地區分別占9.8% 和11.1%。山東、河南和四川省對養分的需求高于其他省份。

2.2 當前化肥的消費及分布狀況

化肥是農田養分投入的主要來源，2015年全國化肥消費量達6023萬t，其中N、P2O5、K2O分別為3001萬t、1943萬t和1079萬t。東北、華北、長江中下游、東南、西南、西北地區的化肥消費量分別占全國化肥消費量的10.6%、27.7%、24.4%、11.5%、11.4%、14.2% (圖1)。山東、河南是化肥主要消費省份。華北地區化肥消費占全國的比例高于該區域養分需求占全國的比例，而西南和西北地區化肥消費占全國的比例則低于這兩個地區養分需求所占的比例。然而養分投入過量與否不僅取決于化肥投入的多少，還受其他養分來源尤其是有機肥養分投入的影響。

表 3 2015年各省化肥消費量中復合肥的氮、磷、鉀比例Table 3 The ratios of N, P2O5 and K2O in compound fertilizers consumed in various provinces in 2015

2.3 有機肥養分還田量

近期研究表明[150]，中國有機肥資源(包括糞肥和農作物秸稈)養分資源潛力為N 3200萬t、P2O51440萬t和K2O 3400萬t。這些有機肥養分可替代或補充部分化肥以滿足作物對養分的需求，有助于實現2020年化肥零增長目標。當前畜禽糞肥的氮、磷、鉀養分還田比例約為32%、57%和52%，秸稈的氮、磷、鉀養分還田比例約為34%、49%和50%。然而，這些還田的有機肥養分當季不能全部釋放為有效養分供作物吸收利用。由此，按有機肥回田量和當季養分釋放率估算出通過畜禽糞肥、秸稈和人糞尿投入的氮、磷、鉀有效養分量約為2168萬t，包括 N 484 萬 t、P2O5411 萬 t和 K2O 1273 萬 t，其中磷主要來源于畜禽糞肥，而鉀主要來源于畜禽糞肥和作物秸稈 (表6)。有機肥有效養分還田主要在河北、河南、山東、四川和湖南省，其次是廣東、廣西、云南，而西北、東北及東南沿海各省通過有機肥還田的有效養分相對較少 (圖1)。

2.4 化肥消費量與化肥需求量差異分析

通過計算，氮磷鉀養分總需求量減去有機肥還田的氮磷鉀有效養分量即為所需要的氮磷鉀化肥養分量，即為 6243 萬 t，包括 N 3262 萬 t、P2O51613 t和K2O 1367萬t。化肥需求量與2015年化肥消費量比較便得出當前化肥消費量與化肥需求量的差值(表7，圖1)。從全國范圍來看氮肥和鉀肥投入不足，分別虧缺N 261萬t和K2O 288萬t，而磷肥的投入過量約P2O5330萬t。這些數據是在假設作物、經濟林、人工草地和水產養殖全面實現平衡施肥的情況下估算而得。

不同省份化肥供需差具有很大差異，東北地區、華北地區、長江中下游地區或東南地區的一些省份如吉林、河北、河南、山東、安徽、江蘇、湖北、廣東省的氮、磷、鉀肥消費全部過量，需要降低投入量，而西北和西南地區的多數省份的肥料消費不足，需要增加化肥的投入量 (圖1)。

3 討論

3.1 養分需求量估算

由于受土壤、氣候、作物種類等多種因素影響，至今尚無可靠、準確的養分需求量估算方法。對農作物養分需求量的估算可根據作物產量和單位產量所需養分吸收量計算，但采用這種方法需要了解土壤肥力參數、作物養分吸收參數和養分利用率等，尤其需要了解作物吸收的養分有多少來源于土壤，多少來源于施肥，至今還沒有足夠的調查與研究數據可以建立這些參數。因此，采用田間肥效試驗法得出的適宜養分推薦量結合種植面積計算養分需求量更實用和可行[5–6]，可全面了解不同地區、不同作物對養分需求的差異，指導肥料的生產、分配和施用。本研究利用農作物、林地、草地、水產養殖面積和適宜的養分推薦量對農業生產養分需求進行估算，不同作物適宜養分推薦量是基于多年研究數據和相關文獻而得的養分平均推薦量。各種作物的試驗研究和文獻資料基本能反映作物主產區的土壤肥力、作物品種、灌溉條件、氣象條件等，所得出的養分推薦量具有代表性。另外，鑒于目前沒有各種作物上的施肥面積的比例數據，本研究在國家倡導全面實現平衡施肥前提下，假設各種作物全面平衡施肥基礎上進行的估算，代表最高養分需求量，也為實現平衡施肥全面普及下的養分需求提供依據和參考。

表 4 畜禽糞肥和作物秸稈養分的當季釋放率Table 4 In-season nutrient release rate from manure and crop residues

注 （Note）：a)糧食作物包括谷物、豆類和薯類 Grain crops include cereals, beans and potatoes; 括號內的數據為占養分需求總量的比例The data in brackets are the percent of total nutrient requirement (%).

表 6 有機肥資源還田的有效養分量 (×104 t)Table 6 The amount of returned available nutrients through organic sources

圖1 不同省份農業生產養分需求量、肥料消費量、有機肥回田有效養分量和肥料消費與肥料需求差Fig. 1 Nutrient requirement, fertilizer consumption, available nutrient returned from organic sources and fertilizer gaps in agricultural production by province

表 7 2015年化肥消費量與化肥需求量差 (×104 t)Table 7 Gaps between fertilizer supply and demand in 2015

3.2 化肥消費量中復合肥的氮、磷、鉀估算方法

自1980年以來，氮磷鉀化肥消費量迅速增加，由1980年的1285萬t增加到2015年的6023萬t，增加近3.7倍，而其中復合肥所占的比例由1980年的2.1%增加到2015年36.1%，增加了16倍多。統計數據中復合肥的氮、磷、鉀養分比例一直不明確，因此，準確估算復合肥中的氮、磷、鉀比例和數量對全面了解不同地區化肥的供給與需求十分重要。李家康等[5]曾按照進口和國產復合肥如一銨、二銨的實際養分量計算，復合 (混) 肥中的N、P2O5、K2O按1∶0.8∶0.8比計算。李書田和金繼運[172]計算消費量中復合肥的N、P2O5、K2O是按照東北地區1∶2.0∶2.0，華北、西北地區1∶1.5∶0.4，長江中下游、西南、東南各省1∶1∶0.8計算。本研究根據發改委2015年的《全國農產品成本收益資料匯編》[149]中不同省份每種作物上一銨、二銨、三元素復合肥、混配肥的施用量以及各自的養分含量估算各省通過復合肥施用的氮、磷、鉀用量和比例(表 3)，其中三元復合 (混) 肥的 N、P2O5、K2O 按1∶1∶1計算。按照這種方法計算的復合肥氮、磷、鉀養分加上單質氮、磷、鉀肥消費量，全國N、P2O5、K2O總消費量分別為3001萬t、1943萬t和1079萬t，與利用2015年各種復合肥資源量 (即國產 + 進口 – 出口)[173]中 N、P2O5、K2O 比例 1∶1.70∶0.73計算后得出的全國N、P2O5、K2O總消費量2996萬t、1921萬t和1105萬t相比基本一致，但有些省份兩種計算方法的氮、磷、鉀消費量有一定差異，可能與按資源量中復合肥氮磷鉀比例計算時各省使用同一比例有關。因此，本研究根據各省復合肥的實際施用情況估算氮、磷、鉀比例更能反映各省的實際情況。

3.3 有機肥在化肥零增長中的地位

我國有機肥資源可提供8000多萬t的氮磷鉀養分，是作物營養的主要來源之一，科學施用有機肥不僅為植物提供養分，還能培肥土壤、增加土壤肥力。畜禽糞肥和作物秸稈是有機肥資源的主要組成部分，目前只有1/3左右的氮和50%左右的磷、鉀能有效還田[150]，其余養分尤其是氮素有相當部分在收集、處理和保存中損失或廢棄，并對環境造成一定污染。因此，充分利用有機肥資源，減少養分損失，增加有效還田比例，是實現2020年化肥零增長目標的可靠保障。從前面分析可知，在全面平衡施肥情況下目前還分別有261萬t化肥氮和 288萬t化肥K2O投入不足，有機肥替代就是很好的補充方法。根據1980～2015年每5年化肥消費年均增長率變化趨勢分析 (圖2)，2015～2020化肥消費年均增長率不會超過2010～2015的年均增長率1.6%，按照這一增長率，到2020年化肥消費量將不會超過6520萬t，比2015年增加約500萬t。增加有機肥的養分投入就可降低化肥消費增長率，降低2020年化肥消費峰值。

圖2 1980～2015年每5年化肥消費年均增長率變化Fig. 2 Evolution of annual average increase rate of chemical fertilizer consumption in every 5 years from 1980 to 2015

當然，有機肥不是施用越多越好，有機肥尤其畜禽糞肥中含有有害物質如重金屬等，存在造成土壤和作物產品某些重金屬超標的風險[174–177]。至于施用多少有機肥合適需要綜合考慮有機肥種類、重金屬含量、土壤酸堿度和重金屬本底值以及作物種類等，有待深入研究制定有機肥施用限量標準。但值得強調的是，用有機肥養分替代化肥養分需要考慮有機肥當季可供作物吸收的部分，不是簡單的總量替代，否則可能導致養分供應不足，影響作物產量。

4 結論

糧食作物是養分需求的主體，其次是蔬菜和果樹。在農作物、林地、草地、水產養殖全面實現平衡施肥情況下，目前氮、鉀肥投入不足，磷肥投入過量。不同省份和區域養分需求、化肥消費量、有機肥還田的有效養分以及化肥消費與化肥需求差都存在著明顯差異。東北、華北、長江中下游和東南沿海地區一些省份需適當減少肥料投入，而西北和西南地區多數省份可依據養分需求適量增加肥料投入。因此，要根據養分和肥料需求的地區差異，合理分配肥料資源，提高肥料利用效率。

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Analyses on nutrient requirements in current agriculture production in China

LI Shu-tian1,2, LIU Xiao-yong1, HE Ping1, 2
( 1 Institute of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, China;2 International Plant Nutrition Institute Beijing Office, Beijing 100081, China )

【Objectives】Analyses of the nutrient requirements in current agricultural production and estimation of the chemical fertilizer demand in China will provide theoretical reference for the reliance of zero growth of chemical fertilizers by 2020, and also provide practical guide for rationally distribute, scientifically manage and apply nutrient resources under the situation of zero growth of chemical fertilizers.【Methods】Based on latest national statistical data, research data and literature review, this study made systematic estimation on N, P and K requirements by crops, forest, grassland and aquiculture under balance fertilization at a provincial level. The fertilizer gaps among fertilizer need and current consumption were also estimated considering recycle of available nutrients from organic sources.【Results】The current N, P2O5, K2O requirements in China's agricultural production were 3746×104t for N, 2024×104t for P2O5and 2640×104t for K2O, respectively, with a total of 8410×104t. Grain crops, vegetables/melons, fruits/tea, oil crops, fiber crops, sugar crops, forage/grassland andaquiculture were accounted for 41.8%, 20.8%, 13.1%, 5.1%, 2.3%, 2.1%, 10.6% and 2.2% of total nutrient requirements, respectively. Northcentral (NC), Middle and Lower Reaches of Yangzi River (MLRY), Northwest(NW), Southwest (SW), Southeast (SE) and Northeast (NE) region were accounted for 20.3%, 23.2%, 18.8%,16.8%, 11.1% and 9.8%, respectively, while nutrient requirements in Shandong, Henan and Sichuan were more than other provinces. Among the total nutrient consumption in China, chemical fertilizer was 6023×104t including 3001×104t N, 1943×104t P2O5and 1079×104t K2O; the consumption distribution in NE, NC, MLRY, SE, SW and NW was accounted for 10.6%, 27.7%, 24.4%, 11.5%, 11.4% and 14.2%, respectively. The organic nutrient capacity was 3200×104t N, 1440×104t P2O5and 3400×104t K2O, but the available nutrient returned to cropland was estimated to be 484×104t N, 411×104t P2O5, 1273×104t K2O. Organic nutrient return was mainly distributed in Hebei, Henan, Shandong, Sichuan and Hunan provinces, followed by Guangdong, Guangxi and Yunnan provinces, while relative small amount in NW, NE and SE regions. Gaps between fertilizer consumption and fertilizer demand indicated that N and K inputs were not enough as a whole in China, N and K2O inputs were respectively in deficit of 261×104t and 288×104t, while P inputs were overused with 330×104t P2O5surplus. Great difference existed in fertilizer gaps among provinces and regions. In some provinces of NE, NC, MLRY or SE regions such as Jilin, Hebei, Henan, Shandong, Anhui, Jiangsu, Hubei and Guangdong provinces, N, P and K fertilizers were all overused, but fertilizer inputs in most provinces of NW and SW regions were insufficient.【Conclusions】Grain crops were the main nutrient demander, followed by vegetables and fruit trees. Under the hypothesis of balanced fertilization achieved in all crops and areas, nitrogen and potassium fertilizer inputs were insufficient, and phosphate fertilizer inputs were excessive. Great variations existed among regions in nutrient requirement. The NE, NC, MLRY and SE coastal areas need to appropriately reduce fertilizer consumption and the NW and SW regions need to appropriately increase fertilizer inputs based on nutrient requirements.

nutrient requirement; fertilizer consumption; fertilizer demand; organic nutrient; fertilizer gap

2017–10–11 接受日期：2017–11–02

國家重點研發計劃課題（2016YFD0200103）資助。

李書田（1966—），男，河北固安人，博士，研究員，主要從事植物營養與施肥研究。Tel：010-82108000；E-mail：sli@ipni.net；lishutian@caas.cn