后終期階段城市化水平演變特征及驅動力分析

蔡永龍+陳忠暖

摘 要 以廣州市近16年的面板數據為基礎，構建適用于城市化后終期階段的綜合評價指標體系，運用熵值法對廣州市城市化綜合水平進行測度，并分析其演變特征及驅動力.結果表明：（1）城市化進入后終期階段，經濟城鎮化和社會城鎮化成為廣州城市化的主要推動力，其次是人口城市化，最后是空間城市化.社會城市化水平的提高，表明城市化質量逐步提升.廣州限制與壓縮城市人口規模是引起人口城市化呈現平緩增長趨勢的主要因素；（2）工業化已不是推動城市化發展的直接動力，交通外延成為推動空間城市化的主要因素.第一產業對經濟城市化無推動作用，相比第二產業，第三產業對經濟城市化的貢獻更為顯著，且已成為經濟城市化發展的后續動力.外商投資對經濟城市化的促進作用已逐步衰弱，而內生性作用成為推動城市化的主導因素；（3）城市建成區的外延拓展趨于放緩，土地城鎮化由粗放式的農業地域向城市地域轉化向城市內部地域土地集約化轉變.本文認為，對于進入城市化后終期階段的城市，應加快第三產業發展，減緩城市建成區擴張速度，注重城市內部地域土地集約化，優化城市內部功能分區，提升城市化質量.

關鍵詞 后終期階段；熵值法；城市化綜合水平；演變特征；驅動力；廣州市

中圖分類號 K901 文獻標識碼 A 文章編號 1000-2537（2017）05-0008-09

Evolution Features and the Driving Factors of the Late and Terminal Stages Urbanization：A Case of Guangzhou

CAI Yong-long1a， CHEN Zhong-nuan 1b*， CHEN Miao-ru1

（1.a.School of Geographical Sciences； b.Urban Leisure and Tourism Research Center，

South China Normal University， Guangzhou 510631， China；

2.College of Teacher Education， East China Normal University， Shanghai 200062， China）

Abstract In this work， based on the panel data of 16 years in Guangzhou， we constructed a comprehensive evaluation index system for the late and terminal stages urbanization. We made use of the entropy method to measure the comprehensive level of urbanization in Guangzhou， and analyze the evolution characteristics and driving factors of urbanization. Our results are as follows. After entering urbanization at late and terminal stages， economic and social aspects of urbanization are the main driving forces in Guangzhou， followed by population urbanization， and finally space urbanization. The improvement on the level of social urbanization shows that the quality of urbanization has been gradually picked up. Guangzhou consolidated urban population size， which was the main factor leading to a gradual growing trend in the urbanization of population. Industrialization is not the direct power to promote the development of urbanization. Traffic expansion has become the main driving force to promote the urbanization of space. The first industry plays no role in promoting economic urbanization. Compared with the second industry， the third industry makes a more significant contribution to the economic urbanization， and has become the direct driving force for the development of economic urbanization. The role of foreign investment in the promotion of economic urbanization has been gradually weakened， and the endogenous role has become the leading factor to promote urbanization. The expansion rate of the urban built-up area tends to slow down， and the land urbanization is transformed from the extensive agricultural region to the urban area as well as the upgrading and transformation of the regional function structure in the city. In this work， we argue that for the city development after entering the late and terminal stage urbanization， we should accelerate the development of the tertiary industry， slow down the expansion rate of urban built-up area， pay more attention to the intensification of urban land use， optimize the functional partition within the city， and improve the quality of urbanization.endprint