人工智能驅(qū)動(dòng)未來(lái)

Grayson+Brulte

Today， we are just beginning to scratch the surface1） of what is possible with artificial intelligence （A.I.） and how individuals will interact with its various forms. Every single aspect of our society—from cars to houses to products to services—will be reimagined and redesigned to incorporate A.I.

A child born in the year 2030 will not comprehend why his or her parents once had to manually2） turn on the lights in the living room. In the future， the smart home will seamlessly3） know the needs， wants and habits of the individuals who live in the home prior to them taking an action.

Before we arrive at this future， it is helpful to take a step back and reimagine how we design cars， houses， products and services. We are just beginning to see glimpses of this future with the Amazon Echo and Google Home smart voice assistants.

Amazon， Apple， Google and to some extent Microsoft understand that the future of computing is voice input， powered by A.I. Moving towards a future where voice will become the primary input command will balance the playing field4） and allow those who have medical conditions such as early stage Alzheimer&apos；s5） to continue to communicate and interact with society.

Children of the future will grow up fully immersed6） in a world powered by A.I. The design of this child&apos；s world will be completely different from our world today， as the child will learn how to communicate with a machine by the time they&apos；re 2 years old.

As a child&apos；s vocabulary grows into full sentences， their personal A.I. engine will grow up with them. These children will grow up in a fully immersed world of A.I. where they will interact with everything using their voice.

Sundar Pichai， CEO of Google， recently penned a blog post in which he described a similar future with A.I.： "In the next 10 years， we will shift to a world that is A.I.-first， a world where computing becomes universally available—be it at home， at work， in the car or on the go—and interacting with all of these surfaces becomes much more natural and intuitive7）， and above all， more intelligent."

While the interaction becomes more natural， the way we design for a future which integrates A.I. seamlessly into daily life will pose a challenge. But it&apos；s a challenge worth tackling： The A.I. industry is projected to grow to $70 billion by 2020 from just $8.2 billion in 2013 according to Bank of America.

The popularity of the garage in the United States started around 1925 when houses with garages started to sell faster than homes without a garage. By 1939， 80 percent of all new houses built had a garage. This growth was partly fueled by the design of the automatic rolling garage door. Today， the necessity to design a garage for the smart home of the future is lessened as a majority of individuals will subscribe to an autonomous vehicle brand instead of owning a vehicle.

When you subscribe to a vehicle， 95 percent of the time you will not need to garage the vehicle when it is not in use. Instead of pulling up to your house and going through the routine of opening and closing the garage doors， the autonomous vehicle will drop you off at your front door. Upon entry， the house will be set the way you prefer with lighting， temperature and music depending on the time of day you arrive.

The A.I. that powers your smart home will understand the quirks8） that make you uniquely you and will ensure that the house operates in an efficient manner. The home will always be listening and waiting for voice commands to complete tasks.

When the home becomes a smart home and society is inherently9） intertwined10） with A.I.， our habits and traits will change. Individuals will become smarter and more efficient as everything they own or subscribe to will be connected to an A.I. engine. This gigantic11） shift in society will have a dramatic impact on how cars， houses， products and services are designed.

Will you be ready for the change？

人工智能未來(lái)可能會(huì)達(dá)到什么樣的高度？個(gè)人又將如何與各種形式的人工智能進(jìn)行互動(dòng)？對(duì)于這些，我們?nèi)缃癫艅倓傞_(kāi)始觸及其表面。從汽車到房屋、到產(chǎn)品、到服務(wù)，我們社會(huì)的每一個(gè)方面都將被重新想象和重新設(shè)計(jì)，以融入人工智能。

2030年出生的孩子將不會(huì)理解自己的父母以前為什么必須手動(dòng)打開(kāi)起居室的燈。在未來(lái)，智能房屋將會(huì)在居住其中的人們采取任何行動(dòng)之前，就毫不費(fèi)力地了解其需求、想法和習(xí)慣。

在我們走進(jìn)這樣的未來(lái)之前，退后一步重新想象一下我們要如何設(shè)計(jì)汽車、房屋、產(chǎn)品和服務(wù)，這樣做會(huì)很有好處。借由亞馬遜智能音箱Echo和谷歌家居智能語(yǔ)音助手，我們才剛剛開(kāi)始看見(jiàn)這種未來(lái)的隱隱微光。

亞馬遜、蘋果和谷歌（從某種程度上來(lái)說(shuō)，還有微軟）都相信計(jì)算機(jī)的未來(lái)是這樣的：靠人工智能驅(qū)動(dòng)的語(yǔ)音輸入。在未來(lái)，語(yǔ)音將會(huì)成為主要的命令輸入方式，這樣的發(fā)展方向?qū)?huì)讓競(jìng)爭(zhēng)環(huán)境變得公平，讓身患疾病（如早期癡呆癥）的人能繼續(xù)與社會(huì)進(jìn)行溝通和互動(dòng)。

未來(lái)的孩子將會(huì)完全沉浸在一個(gè)由人工智能驅(qū)動(dòng)的世界里長(zhǎng)大。他們成長(zhǎng)的這個(gè)世界的設(shè)計(jì)將全然不同于我們今日所處的世界，因?yàn)槲磥?lái)世界中的孩子們到2歲時(shí)就將學(xué)習(xí)如何和機(jī)器交流。

隨著一個(gè)孩子的詞匯量增長(zhǎng)到可以說(shuō)出完整的句子，他們個(gè)人的人工智能引擎也會(huì)跟著他們一同發(fā)展。這些孩子將會(huì)在一個(gè)完全沉浸在人工智能中的世界里長(zhǎng)大，他們?cè)谶@里將通過(guò)語(yǔ)音來(lái)同世界上的一切打交道。

谷歌首席執(zhí)行官桑達(dá)爾·皮查伊最近（編注：英文原文發(fā)表于2016年10月）寫了一篇博文，文中描述了一個(gè)類似的人工智能的未來(lái)：“在接下來(lái)的10年里，我們會(huì)轉(zhuǎn)變到一個(gè)以人工智能為主導(dǎo)的世界。在這個(gè)世界里，計(jì)算機(jī)運(yùn)作會(huì)無(wú)處不在，不論是在家、在工作、在車?yán)锘蚴窃诿χ鍪裁词?。與所有這些計(jì)算機(jī)運(yùn)用界面打交道將會(huì)變得更為自然、更本能，并且最重要的是，更為智能?！?/p>

雖然與人工智能的互動(dòng)會(huì)變得更加自然，但如何設(shè)計(jì)這樣一個(gè)將人工智能無(wú)縫融入日常生活的未來(lái)卻是一大挑戰(zhàn)。不過(guò)這一挑戰(zhàn)值得我們應(yīng)對(duì)：據(jù)美國(guó)銀行預(yù)測(cè)，人工智能行業(yè)產(chǎn)值到2020年時(shí)將會(huì)從2013年的82億美元增長(zhǎng)到700億美元。

車庫(kù)在美國(guó)的流行始于1925年左右，當(dāng)時(shí)帶車庫(kù)的房子比沒(méi)有車庫(kù)的房子更搶手。到1939年，80%的新建住宅都配有車庫(kù)。這一增長(zhǎng)部分是由于車庫(kù)自動(dòng)卷門設(shè)計(jì)的推動(dòng)。如今，為未來(lái)的智能房屋設(shè)計(jì)車庫(kù)的必要性已經(jīng)減弱了，因?yàn)榇蠖鄶?shù)人將會(huì)訂購(gòu)自動(dòng)駕駛汽車，而不是購(gòu)買機(jī)動(dòng)車。

在訂購(gòu)了自動(dòng)駕駛汽車之后，不用車的時(shí)候，有95%的時(shí)間你都不需要把它開(kāi)進(jìn)車庫(kù)里。你不再需要把車停在房前，然后例行來(lái)上一遍開(kāi)車庫(kù)門關(guān)車庫(kù)門；相反，自動(dòng)駕駛車輛將讓你在你家前門下車。等你一進(jìn)門，房屋將會(huì)根據(jù)你到家的時(shí)間設(shè)定好你喜歡的亮度、溫度以及音樂(lè)。

驅(qū)動(dòng)你智能房屋的人工智能將了解你那些獨(dú)有的小怪癖，并會(huì)確保房屋以高效的方式運(yùn)行。你的房屋將會(huì)永遠(yuǎn)聆聽(tīng)并等待你的語(yǔ)音指令來(lái)完成任務(wù)。

當(dāng)房屋變成智能房屋，當(dāng)人工智能完全融入社會(huì)，我們的習(xí)慣和特征也會(huì)發(fā)生改變。由于我們擁有和訂購(gòu)的所有東西都會(huì)與一個(gè)人工智能引擎相連，人會(huì)變得更聰明也更高效。這一翻天覆地的社會(huì)變化將會(huì)對(duì)汽車、房屋、產(chǎn)品和服務(wù)的設(shè)計(jì)產(chǎn)生巨大影響。

面對(duì)這樣的變化，你準(zhǔn)備好了嗎？

1. scratch the surface： 觸及表面，淺嘗輒止；未做深入研究

2. manually [?m?nju?li] adv. 手動(dòng)地

3. seamlessly [?si?ml?sli] adv. 毫不費(fèi)力地；無(wú)縫地

4. playing field： 公平競(jìng)爭(zhēng)的環(huán)境

5. Alzheimer&apos；s： 阿爾茨海默病，患者思維能力和記憶力逐漸衰退。

6. immerse [??m??s] vt. 使沉浸

7. intuitive [?n?tju??t?v] adj. 本能的；憑直覺(jué)的

8. quirk [kw??k] n. 怪癖

9. inherently [?n?h??r?ntli] adv. 內(nèi)在地

10. intertwine [??nt??twa?n] vt. 使密切關(guān)聯(lián)

11. gigantic [d?a??ɡ?nt?k] adj. 巨大無(wú)比的