金融結構、產業結構優化與經濟增長

習羿暉 段新鋒 劉振

摘 要：根據中部六省1994～2013年的樣本數據，建立面板向量自回歸模型（PVAR），通過脈沖響應和方差分解考察產業結構優化、經濟增長和金融結構之間的互動機制。結果表明：金融結構和產業結構優化、經濟增長之間存在著互動機制。但三者之間的影響是非均衡的，經濟增長與產業結構優化之間互為因果關系，經濟增長與金融總量結構互為因果關系，產業結構優化與金融融資結構互為因果關系。長期來看，金融總量結構優化對產業結構優化的貢獻要大于產業結構優化對金融總量結構優化的貢獻。經濟增長對金融融資結構優化的貢獻大于金融融資結構優化對經濟增長的貢獻。

關 鍵 詞：金融結構；產業結構優化；經濟增長；互動機制

中圖分類號：F830 文獻標識碼：A 文章編號：2096-2517（2016）04-0023-08

Abstract： This paper based its research on the data samples of six provinces in central China from 1994 to 2013 and PVAR model， investigated the interactive mechanism among industrial structure optimization， economic growth and financial structure by utilizing impulse response and variance decomposition. The result shows that an interactive mechanism exists in financial structure and industrial structure optimization and economic growth. But the influence of the three aspects is not balanced. The relation between economic growth and industrial structure optimization is a cause and effect relation， the relation between economic growth and total financial volume structure is a cause and effect relation， and the relation between industrial structure optimization and financing structure is also a cause and effect relation. In the long run， total financial volumes contribution to industrial structure optimization is more than industrial structure optimizations contribution to total finance volume structure. Economic growths contribution to financing structure is more than financing structures contribution to economic growth.

Key words： financial structure； industrial structure optimization； economic growth； interactive mechanism