Trend Prediction Of Chinese Regional Economy Different Variation And Policy Implications

Abstract：The existence of regional economic difference and change of our country affects the development of various regions.It is a major issue to be reckoned. Through the comparison of seven kinds of prediction methods， this article discusses the differences of regional economic trends and policy implications.

Key words：Chinese Regional Economic Disparity；Trend prediction

1. The Method Of Prediction In This Article

Learnning about Chinese regional economic disparities trend forecasting research experience， this paper forecast the trend of regional economic difference from the following aspects：

（1） Selection of prediction period.

2014 is the group forecast period， 2020 is forecast period.

（2） Selection of prediction index.

Choses the Per capita GDP as a reflection of regional economic disparities pointer.

（3） Chinese Regional Economic Disparity change measure.

GDP per capita predicted provinces of calculating the range and standard deviation of the absolute differences reflect changes in the regional economy， while calculate the coefficient of variation of the ratio of the highest and lowest economic level of per capita GDP provinces to reflect the relative differences in changes in the regional economy.

（4） Area dipartition.

Prediction area used is ours 31 provinces， municipalities and autonomous regions

2. Trend Prediction Of Chinese Regional Economy Different Variation

In this article we select seven kinds of prediction scheme to analyze the situation of Regional Economic Disparities possible changes，and the difference lies in the different programs of the selected provinces per capita GDP growth rate. Provinces GDP average annual growth rate is based on 2001 to 2005， 2006 to 2010， from 2011 to 2014， from 2001 to 2014， provinces and autonomous regions GDP average annual growth rate， then different combinations constitute various prediction programs. Specific prediction programs are as follows：

Option 1： Suppose that Annual per capita GDP of 2020 in every province grow by the average annual growth rate from 2001 to 2005.

Option 2： Suppose that Annual per capita GDP of 2020 in every province grow by the average annual growth rate from 2006 to 2010.

Option 3： Suppose that Annual per capita GDP of 2020 in every province grow by the average annual growth rate from 2011 to 2014.

Option 4： Suppose that Annual per capita GDP of 2020 in every province grow by the average annual growth rate from 2001 to 2014.

Option 5： Suppose that Annual per capita GDP of 2020 in every province grow by the maximum growth rate of the above four.

Option 6： Suppose that Annual per capita GDP of 2020 in 11 Eastern Province grow by the maximum growth rate of the above four，and per capita GDP of 2020 in 20 western provinces grow by by the average annual growth rate from 2001 to 2014.

Based on per capita GDP 2014 the provinces of the region and according to the forecast of the above design， we calculated per capita GDP in 2020 provinces.Predictive value were calculated and poor， standard deviation， coefficient of variation for each program predicted the regional per capita GDP， the highest level and the lowest rate of economic provinces per capita GDP， and the results are shown in Table 1.

NOTE： R- Range； S- standard deviation； Vuw- coefficient of variation； I- economic level， the highest and lowest per capita GDP provinces.

Ratio can be seen from Table 1， the following points：

（1）Range and standard deviation of the provinces per capita GDP of seven option displayed than in 2010 and 014 is largger. This means that， by 2020， the absolute difference of the regional economy continued to show a trend of expansion.

（2）Economic level of the provinces per capita GDP of seven option 3 displayed the highest and lowest per capita GDP ratio than the level of provinces in 2014 is smaller. This means that if the per capita GDP of provinces according to these types of programs increase， the 2020 Regional Economic relative differences will show a narrowing trend.

（3）The coefficient of variation of per capita GDP provinces in option 1 and option 3 have shown， the economic level of the highest and lowest per capita GDP provinces ratio than the level in 2014 is large. This means that if per capita GDP provinces by program （vi） growth， then in 2020 the relative difference between the regional economic area will continue to expand.

3. Policy Implications Of Chinese Regional Economy Different Variation

One of the important decisions in our economic development， \"Thirteen Five\" period facing the national economy is to continue at a rapid pace， while entering the country but also on the Regional Economic Disparity \"Thirteen Five\" period widening be regulated in order to prevent regional economic difference is too large and cause harm to the economic and social development. Therefore， we need to select the program in the seven in a program to meet this requirement as a regional economic differences in regulatory change basis.

The average annual growth rate of poor， standard deviation， coefficient of variation of GDP per capita from 2011 to 2014 and from 2001 to 2014， per capita GDP of the provinces and regions such as the reference standard， the comparative analysis of the national economy at a faster pace while regional differences should be controlled within a certain range of these two aspects to consider， in the above seven programs in order to select the most appropriate program three. From provinces income growth program three assumptions， changes of the difference between the pointer can be obtained the following revelation：

（1）Only the provinces as much as possible to achieve rapid economic growth in order to achieve the rapid growth of the national economy， but also to resolve regional economic disparities provide a good economic basis. Artificially control the eastern part of the economy is relatively developed provinces and cities in economic growth （such as program VII）， or only attach importance to economic development of the eastern economy is relatively developed provinces and cities （such as program VI） are undesirable.

（2）2014 ～ 2020， a more reasonable range of regional economic difference is the degree of difference between the average annual expansion of the speeds of the index can not exceed the level of 2001 to 2014. In this context， regional economic differences do not cause the national economic and social development of significant turmoil.

（3）Economic level program three provinces show the highest and lowest per capita GDP of the poor is large. Therefore， when addressing regional economic disparities， national efforts should focus on underdeveloped provinces， especially in the economic level has been lower provinces （such as Tibet， Guizhou， Yunnan， etc.） on their efforts to achieve economic growth can and the country's economic growth to adapt.