Under The Background Of The New Normal “middle—income trap”Avoidance Strategy Analysis

Abstract：Since reform and opening up， Chinese sustained development of the national economy， has entered the row of middle-income countries.Throughout the course of development of the world， the vast majority of developing countries have almost difficult to spend the \"middle income trap\"， China should combine China's basic national conditions， take the appropriate way to avoid the \"middle income trap\" appears，The emergence of the new normal economy means that China will face a \"middle income trap\".Our current priority is to continue to deepen reform， to provide institutional support and protection for the adjustment of industrial structure， promote the transformation of government functions should be followed to provide strong backing for economic development.Finally， we should be depending on the state of development of the various regions， the implementation of gradient development mode， coordinate the relationship between economic development， investment， exports and consumption among， innovative economy increased proportion of gross national product.

Key words：New normal；Economy；Middle-income trap；Avoidance

May 2014， the General Secretary Xi Jinping was first proposed in Henan examine the concept of the new normal， so-called new normal economy means different from the traditional， relatively stable economic situation In November President Xi Jinping at the opening ceremony of the APEC summit comprehensive interpretation of the concept of the new normal economy， China's economic growth is about to slow down， since the reform and opening up for 30 years of rapid economic development stage comes to a close， our country will enter the new normal state of the economy. In 2010 China's GNP reached 39.7983 trillion yuan for the first time surpassed Japan to become the world's second largest economy. GDP per capita reached 30，600 yuan， according to the standards of international counterparts， China has entered the ranks of middle-income countries. In our new normal economy will soon emerge on the occasion， the phenomenon has aroused wide attention of scholars， not as good as our ability to successfully cross the ranks of developed countries， \"middle income trap\" remains to be seen.

1. Background And Characteristics Of The \"middle-income trap \"

After the World War II， along with the gradual recovery of production and the transformation of economic consciousness， the world efforts to expand production， the economy in a considerable period of time to maintain a rapid growth in the state， so that more countries emerge poverty， come into the ranks of middle-income countries. But over a period of time to enter middle-income countries after the economic growth rate began slowing down， it does not follow the expected assumption， successfully entered the ranks of developed countries， and this state continues for a long period of time. From a global perspective， the distribution of middle-income countries are more dispersed， in Latin America， Asia Pacific and parts of Europe there are a large number of middle-income countries in Latin America where many middle-income countries has not yet crossed the developed countries threshold， the longer the duration of the middle-income status， has become synonymous with \"middle-income trap\". Such as Chile， Argentina， Brazil， Uruguay and other countries have been hovering in the middle-income countries. This phenomenon gradually attracted widespread attention， many of the professional scholars conducted analysis and research， but has not formed a complete system of concepts and， until 2006， the concept of \"middle-income trap\" for the first time by the World Bank in the \"East Asian economic development report\" clearly states： in many middle-income countries， only a few countries can successfully avoid： the \"middle income trap\" appears， it is better to go among the ranks of developed countries， while the rest of the country will economic growth will gradually slow down for a long period of time， and even some middle-income countries， there will be economic retrogression.

2. Discussion Difficult Economic Context Our Response To The New Normal \"middle income trap\" Facing

China nearly 30 years of economic growth has created a miracle of economic development， so that China successfully get rid of poverty and backwardness， entered the ranks of middle-income countries. But in our country for quite a long time， too much emphasis on rapid economic development， to take over some of the more radical approach， potential to be excessive mining， lead to economic development in the current existence of many problems， such as： serious polarization of wealth， employment difficulties， the social security system is imperfect， the financial system is not perfect and so on. Combined with China's current economy is in a new normal background before entering the country in the developed countries， there are still many problems to be solved. The current phase of finding answers to the \"middle income trap\" facing include the following aspects

（1） Traditional Economic Models And Industrial Structure Encountered A Bottleneck In The Development

From the industrial point of view， China's low level of agricultural modernization and industrial development within the industry there is a serious imbalance. China's current stage of agriculture， non-agricultural land resources to speed significantly faster than the speed of non-agricultural rural population. This led to farmers increasing investment in physical capital， resulting in decreased earnings. It seems from the industrial structure， China's industrial manufacturing is also a dominant position， but China's manufacturing industry， although very large， but the overall strength was poor， and can not be developed in competition with the core technology， in industry chain downstream， but with the growing labor costs， can not be compared with developing countries. In this way the current stage of development of China's manufacturing industry there is a fatal threat to our country will cross the \"middle income trap\" laid off more risks. From the perspective of the tertiary industry view， the current level of urbanization in China is not high， but due to limitations such as the household registration system， the rural population is difficult to large-scale urban migration， can not cause the more service-oriented to the tertiary industry large market demand， leading to a lack of domestic demand.

（2） Model of development factors of production-driven economy has sustainable development

After the reform and opening up of the rapid economic development is primarily relying on a strong production advantages of various resources in this country has a lot of reserves， after the market opening， in order to chase profits， large numbers of workers began to flood-related industries， resulting in economic Rapid development. However， the factors of production-driven economic development， there are significant shortcomings， with dwindling resources， the drive capacity is clearly insufficient， but also easily lead to overcapacity and other serious problems. Under the new normal context， the transition from industry to drive innovation capacity drive in order to make China's economic development have more ability to cope in the face of the \"middle income trap\" when. China's current industrial， and dependence on the developed countries are also very strong， basically using technology from developed countries to introduce domestic production buried in the way of development， the intensity of internal funds in industrial R D and innovation investment is small. This development can bring some profit in the short term， but not conducive to long-term industrial development. In our current technological innovation， there are still great deficiencies.

（3） Insufficient domestic demand

In which the composition of economic \"investment， exports and consumption\" is the main engine of economic growth， and China's current economic growth， investment and exports a large proportion， while spending power has been insufficient. To date China's consumption rate does not reach 40% of residents， while consumption in developed countries residents remain generally above 60%， China's spending power has not been fully excavated. Insufficient domestic demand mainly by the following reasons caused by the current economic development of China among： first， because of the slow process of urbanization， and rural residents for various reasons can not really come into the city， which resulted in more spending power beneath， on the other hand with the growing industrialization process， and created a large number of products， and these products can only be sold to other countries and regions through the export of ways. Yet another aspect of insufficient domestic demand due to China's current social security mechanism is not perfect， the less the poorer areas enjoy social security， which then largely suppressed consumption wishes of the residents. Unreasonable distribution of wealth has led to residents' disposable income continues to decrease and prevent the expansion of domestic demand.

（4） Low efficiency of government functions

In China's overall economic development， the government department responsible for the allocation of economic resources in the construction， which in this mode， since the government is not a direct participant in economic development， leading to speed the deployment of resources and efficiency significantly lower， at the same time there are all kinds of mess. On the other hand， within the scope of public services， the government is not only government public goods is both a provider of public goods， but also through government regulation， administrative examination and approval， discriminatory taxes and subsidies， etc.， to protect themselves in the field of Public Goods \" vertical integration \"monopoly， resulting in the public sector size is too large， insufficient incentives， inefficient and inadequate supply of public goods， the quality is not high and even rent-seeking and other issues. Government departments will also be a number of other duties which should be borne by the market， a serious shortage of budget on public services， so that social equity is significantly reduced.

3. Chinese Current Avoid The \"middle income trap\" Strategic Analysis

（1） Deepening the reform of the system to provide strong backing for the industrial restructuring

Industrial restructuring without the support of the system， will eventually become empty. First， China should reform and improve the current distribution system， in order for the anti-corruption as a starting point， to combat unfair distribution system. Government should formulate measures to combat corruption， government officials， financial monitoring， anti-corruption as a weapon to continue the fight against all kinds of corruption， and thus enhance the people's confidence in economic development.

（2） Promote the transformation of government functions

For our current across the \"middle income trap\"， into the ranks of developed countries， institutional innovation is an inevitable road. While referring to the economic development process of developed countries， we can see that the efficiency of government functions to achieve sustainable economic development has important links. As China's market economy towards a more advanced form of government functions should continue to enhance coordination in public services and economic construction， provide a more stable macroeconomic environment for economic development. Give full play to all levels of the population into a positive and dynamic economic development， the transformation of government functions to promote economic restructuring. Bank of China International Finance Research Group believes that the Government should increase the binding force， standardize administrative practices； establish and improve the scientific， rational and effective evaluation system， to maximize the mobilization of cadres at all levels of initiative and creativity； strengthen public service system ，mention

High level of social management， improve the government's public service ability and level.

（3） Deepening the adjustment of industrial structure， promote economic restructuring and development

The current stage of China's industrial structure with economies in transition to fully depending on the state of development of each region， develop targeted strategies， the implementation of the gradient of the development. It should also be to promote the relationship between economic structure of investment， exports and consumption between the three. Finally， it should change the current economic drive.

First，The use of different economic levels of the various regions， take advantage of different regions and promote the development of the industrial structure of the gradient， thus providing more power for economic development.

Although China from the overall average has entered the middle-income countries， but the average obscures differences in economic levels between different regions in the northwest， northeast， southwest and central regions of China since the reform and opening up of late， have fewer resources， economic development foundation thinner and other factors have been more moderate pace of economic development， basically can only reach the level of lower-middle income countries. The economic level in Beijing， Shanghai， Guangzhou， Shenzhen and other regions has basically reached the level of high-income countries. The current stage of the country should be the center of manufacturing of the Guangzhou-Shenzhen and other developed regions continue to shift from the north to the Midwest， more adequate labor force in the western region， but also less tax， which reduces the cost of manufacturing of great significance. Transforming the city into the Midwest after the southeast coastal areas of manufacturing the second echelon of great significance.

second，Coordinate the relationship between economic composition of investment， exports and consumption among current

Under the new normal economic background， to achieve sustained economic development， expanding domestic demand is a problem our country must face. The need to expand domestic demand mainly from the following aspects： First， should increase the income level of residents' disposable income accounted for an increasing proportion of total income， thereby increasing consumption and spur consumer economic growth. Secondly， we should improve the current mechanisms of social protection， safeguard mechanisms to protect the basic livelihood of low-income people， to expand domestic demand. Finally， we should promote the development of China's urbanization process and rural residents continue to move to the city， so as to enhance the overall consumption level of residents， provide continuous internal dynamics for economic development. At the same time expanding domestic demand， we should continue to explore overseas markets， continue to consolidate the existing overseas markets， should also continue to actively explore new markets， making China's economic development has a dual power. Expand investment to promote the continuous development of China's economy has great significance in expanding investment， while preventing excessive investment should generate market bubbles and trigger a new economic crisis. Investment should focus on the relationship between domestic demand and investment， a reasonable production according to market demand.

Third， Enhanced innovation-based economy in the proportion of economic structure

Although the \"Made in China\" has become well-known brands in the world， but from the perspective of industrial structure， China's manufacturing industry in the downstream industry in the whole industry chain， dependence on foreign core technology makes our country more difficult to obtain in the competition profits， limiting the further development of our economy. Enhanced innovation-based economy requires us to take a share of innovative road with Chinese characteristics， to achieve business model innovation， technological innovation， integrated innovation and other innovative multi-faceted way. Which is inseparable from schools， businesses and government to work together. No matter what kind of innovation are inseparable from the innovative thinking has talent， so the school culture at the source should increase awareness of young people's innovation， increase investment in education in the whole proportion of GDP， from the software and hardware continue to improve education development， optimize the education structure. While institutions of higher education should increase learning and practical training courses， training college students sense of innovation. Innovative economic development in the enterprise also has an important task， especially in technological innovation. Enterprise and technology are closely related， and business innovation can translate directly into profits， so that it has the capability of technological innovation， building business-oriented， market-oriented， a combination of technological innovation system can constantly adjust resources for innovation in various industries the allocation optimization model of development of innovative economy. At the same time the government should continue to increase efforts to support innovation， through the respect of financial capital subsidy， project guidance， personnel training to provide more effective protection for the development of innovative economy. Government departments should continue to strengthen the innovation and development of the necessary hardware conditions， such as the establishment of a variety of businesses and research laboratories in various schools and research institutions， science and technology to build the network resource information. The innovation lies in the economic development of the software， first of all government departments to formulate relevant laws and regulations so that intellectual property rights can be effectively protected， so that the legitimate interests of the innovator is not compromised. At the same time the government should create a good atmosphere for innovation， so that innovative ideas can be popular， to achieve universal innovation.

4. Conclusion

Manifold economic development history of the world， not every middle-income countries are bound to fall into the \"middle income trap\"， there are still some countries successfully crossed the \"middle income trap\"， successfully entered the ranks of developed countries. In the new normal economic background， we need time to adjust， the policy， choose their path of economic development. If we can from this stage reform， transformation of government functions， deepening the industrial structure adjustment and other aspects of the current stage of our relationship and coordinate economic development process in all factors， our country must be able to successfully avoid the \"middle income trap\" appeared in China， so that China into the ranks of developed countries in the developed world， so our place among the nations. Meanwhile， the economic development of many factors， we still have many problems at present there is no reasonable answer， this requires more insight continues its in-depth research， and put forward their views.