Managing Uncertainties

By+Bai+Shi

Chinese President Xi Jinping is expected to make his second trip to Washington in less than a year in late March to attend the fourth Nuclear Security Summit hosted by U.S. President Barack Obama. During his state visit in September 2015， President Xi and his counterpart had reached an agreement on a number of important issues， such as climate change and cybersecurity. With this consensus， the two sides were supposed to be able to set aside their differences while focusing on fostering sound bilateral relations.

For the remainder of 2016， however， China-U.S. relations are likely to be influenced by a number of uncertainties， including the flare-up in the South China Sea， the nuclearization of the Korean Peninsula and the U.S. presidential election. Will the leaders of the two countries be able to manage growing tensions while strengthening cooperation in areas of common interest in the years ahead？

Points of contention

Tensions over the waters surrounding Chinas Nansha Islands in the South China Sea have been frequently reported on by both domestic and international media. Since the Obama administration adopted the strategy rebalancing its foreign policy focus to the Asia-Pacific region， often referred to as the “pivot to Asia，” the United States has been increasingly involved in territorial disputes between China and some Southeast Asian countries.

In the name of defending the freedom of navigation and flight in the South China Sea， U.S. military planes and ships have increased their patrols in the region. Last October， the U.S.S. Lassen made a provocative journey into waters near Meiji Reef， a Chinese territorial island in the South China Sea， prompting a rebuke from China. Then on March 4， by the order of the Pentagon， the John C. Stennis Strike Group（JCSSG） conducted unusual “routine operations”in the South China Sea for four days. Chinese media reported that it looked like a deliberate display of military might.

“In the last two years， strategic competition between China and the United States appears more and more intense in the Asia-Pacific region，” Wang Wenfeng， a senior research fellow at the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations （CICIR）， said on recent U.S. military activities at a panel organized by the Carnegie-Tsinghua Center for Global Policy on March 9.

The growing frictions between China and the United States in the region have therefore aroused deep concerns over the future of bilateral relations between the two countries， Wang said. Moreover， the two sides are currently too divided to mitigate ongoing conflicts.

J. Stapleton Roy believes that the most important fact in the U.S.-China relationship remains the rivalry between the two countries. Roy is the founding director emeritus of the Kissinger Institute on China and the United States at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars. He previously served as the U.S. ambassador to China （1991-95）.

“Sooner or later the two countries are going to have to address that question，” Roy said at the panel discussion. According to him， Washington believes that the freedom of navigation in the South China Sea concerns the core interests of the United States because it must secure its trade routes and influence in the region.

In fact， the Chinese Foreign Ministry has repeatedly expressed that China has the right to safeguard its sovereignty and territories and its actions do not harm freedom of navigation and flight principles.

Wang said that the growing disputes can largely be attributed to the lack of mutual trust between China and the United States， and the fact that the two countries have not found the right way to improve in that regard. As Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi pointed out at a press conference in Beijing on March 8， the source of the friction is that there are some people in the United States who have distorted or deliberately misinterpreted Chinas intentions.

Cui Tiankai， Chinese Ambassador to the United States， said in Beijing on March 5， that“China and the United States should work together to manage disputes and avoid making strategic misjudgments of each other.” He made the comment in an interview with China. org.cn while attending the Fourth Session of the 12th National Committee of the Chinese Peoples Political Consultative Conference（CPPCC）， the nations top advisory body. Cui is also a member of the CPPCC National Committee.

Cui said that the criticisms over Chinas“militarization” of the Nansha Islands are unwarranted. China has the right to build moderate military facilities on its own islands for selfdefense， maritime enforcement and rescue operations. In fact， “it is the frequent U.S. military patrols in the region that have intensified tensions，” Cui said.

A report released by the American think tank， the Center for Strategic and International Studies （CSIS） in January asserted that “the U.S. rebalance to the Asia-Pacific is critical to security and prosperity throughout the region and across the globe.” The CSIS report also suggested that Washington would have to manage a diverse and complicated set of challenges， not the least of which is Chinas rise.

Yuan Peng， Vice President of the CICIR， told Beijing Review that the South China Sea issue is complicated in part because it involves a number of states. According to Yuan， while China adheres to principles of seeking solutions through bilateral negotiations， the United States has for some reason involved itself in the issue， which makes it harder to solve.

Furthermore， negotiation and coordination channels should not be limited to government levels， but should be established between senior military personnel， Yuan said. More dialogue on the issue between the two militaries would help lower the possibility of any armed conflict in the waters of the South China Sea.

Apart from military reconnaissance against China in the South China Sea， the United States has made other moves in the Korean Peninsula that have caused concern in Beijing. The United States and South Korea have started negotiations on the potential deployment of the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense （THAAD） missile defense system in South Korea. In Yuans analysis， the Patriot missile defense system would be capable of dealing with potential missile threats from North Korea， yet the deployment of THAAD would also threaten Chinas national security. Such an act will only intensify tensions in Asia and be more likely to lead to serious geopolitical conflicts， he said.

The U.S. election factor

With regard to the possible influence of the ongoing U.S. presidential campaign and the November election， Chinese Ambassador Cui said that the campaign itself wont have a notable influence on China-U.S. relations， though some candidates may use China-related topics to catch the attention of voters. For example， both Democrat and Republican candidates have chosen to blame China for the American trade deficit and loss of jobs. This year， the debate on the United StatesChina policy has also expanded to the South China Sea， cybersecurity and climate change. To win supporters， presidential candidates often try to appear“tough on China.”In reality， China and the United States need to work together to promote practical collaboration， such as sustainable development and environmental protection. The two sides also have vast potential to deepen and expand their areas of cooperation， Cui said.

Still， Chen Qi， a professor of China-U.S. relations and Vice Dean of the School of Social Sciences at Tsinghua University， said to the panel attendees that while 2016 is a critical year for the two countries， both will likely focus on their own domestic affairs.

Xenophobic policies though must not be adopted by the next U.S. administration no matter who wins in November， Chen said. More importantly， the next American president will need to find a balance in its foreign relations， in particular with China， a key stakeholder in global affairs and a willing partner for shared economic prosperity.